Market Report: FX, commodities and equities | AFORTI.BIZ / US labour market slowdown, Polish fuel price caps and rising inflation

In the latest AFORTI.BIZ Market Report, we summarise the key events of the past week that shaped developments across financial markets and the Polish economy. The main driver for global investors was a significantly weaker-than-expected US labour market report (NFP), which reduced the likelihood of another interest rate increase by the Fed. In Poland, the key development was the signing of legislation introducing a windfall tax on fuel companies, as well as fuel price caps and reductions in VAT and excise duty on fuel. At the same time, pressure on the zloty continued across the currency markets. We invite you to read our analysis of how these developments affect the operations and finances of Polish businesses.

Key takeaways

US labour market slowdown: The September NFP report showed an increase of just 29,000 non-farm jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, significantly reducing market expectations of an interest rate increase by the Fed in October.
Polish fuel price caps and tax cuts: The signing of the windfall tax legislation allowed the government to reduce VAT on fuel to 8%, cut excise duty and introduce price caps (PLN 6.73 per litre for petrol and PLN 7.80 per litre for diesel).
Coordinated G7 intervention in the oil market: The G7 countries, working with the International Energy Agency, decided to release up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from strategic reserves to ease supply pressures.

Economic indicators

Poland

Manufacturing PMI (September): actual 49.00; previous 48.30;
CPI y/y (September): actual 4.0%; forecast 4.1%; previous 3.4%;
CPI m/m (September): actual 0.7%; previous 0.3%;

Eurozone

CPI y/y (September): actual 3.8%; forecast 3.7%; previous 3.2%;
Core CPI y/y (September): actual 2.5%; forecast 2.5%; previous 2.4%;
Manufacturing PMI (September): actual 52.9; forecast 52.7; previous 52.7;
Unemployment rate (August): actual 6.4%; forecast 6.4%; previous 6.4%;
Consumer confidence index (September): actual -16.5; forecast -16.5; previous -16.5;
Industrial sentiment index (September): actual -3.8; forecast -4.8; previous -5.0;

Germany

German CPI y/y (September): actual 3.3%; forecast 3.1%; previous 2.9%;
German manufacturing PMI (September): actual 53.9; forecast 53.8; previous 54.3;
German unemployment rate (September): actual 6.4%; forecast 6.4%; previous 6.4%;
German import price index y/y (August): actual 8.3%; forecast 8.0%; previous 6.8%;

United Kingdom

GDP q/q (Q2): actual 0.5%; forecast 0.4%; previous 0.6%;
GDP y/y (Q2): actual 1.4%; forecast 1.2%; previous 0.9%;
Manufacturing PMI (September): actual 51.9; forecast 52.0; previous 51.7;

USA

Change in non-farm employment (September): actual 29K; forecast 89K; previous 133K;
Unemployment rate (September): actual 4.2%; forecast 4.1%; previous 4.1%;
ADP non-farm employment change (September): actual 90K; forecast 73K; previous 36K;
ISM manufacturing index (September): actual 54.5; forecast 54.8; previous 54.6;
GDP q/q (Q2): actual 2.2%; forecast 1.5%; previous 2.1%;

China

Manufacturing PMI (September): actual 50.1; forecast 50.1; previous 49.8;
Services PMI (September): actual 50.2; forecast 49.2; previous 49.0;

Currency market

Over the week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.27. The euro traded in a range of 4.3594–4.3890.

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(source: www.money.pl)

The dollar (USD) also strengthened against the zloty (PLN), gaining 1.41%. The dollar traded in a range of 3.8348–3.9015.

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(source: www.money.pl)

The pound sterling (GBP) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 1.42% amid significant volatility. The pound traded in a range of 5.0827–5.1699.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Commodities market

Brent crude fell by 1.67%. The price traded in a range of USD 95.25–103.02 per barrel.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Gold fell by 3.54%. The price of gold traded in a range of USD 4,144.34–4,309.51 per ounce.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Equity market

The WIG index fell by 1.82%. The index traded in a range of 153,586–158,068.

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(source: www.money.pl)

What does this mean for businesses?

Importers: The sharp rise in foreign exchange rates is rapidly increasing the cost of overseas purchases and requires active currency risk management.
Exporters: The depreciation of the Polish zloty is increasing the profitability of international sales by raising the converted value of revenues received in dollars, euros and pounds.
Transport and logistics: The introduction of fuel price caps, a lower VAT rate and reduced excise duty will provide direct relief for operating costs, although high global Brent crude prices and a strong dollar remain an ongoing challenge.

What drove the markets?

Sharp slowdown in the US labour market

The official US labour market report (NFP) for September was significantly weaker than forecast. Non-farm employment increased by just 29,000 jobs, compared with an expected 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Easing wage pressure drastically reduced the likelihood of another interest rate increase by the Fed in October, from nearly 70% to approximately 21%, providing an impetus for gains in US equity markets.

Polish intervention in the fuel market

The President signed legislation introducing a windfall tax on fuel companies, allowing the government to immediately reduce VAT on fuel from 23% to 8% and cut excise duty. Fuel price caps came into force at filling stations overnight from 2 to 3 October, at PLN 6.73 per litre for petrol and PLN 7.80 per litre for diesel. According to economists, the measure is expected to reduce inflation in the coming months.

Coordinated release of oil reserves by the G7

In response to persistent geopolitical risks and restrictions on maritime traffic, the G7 countries, working with the International Energy Agency, decided to release up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from strategic reserves. Brent crude traded in a range of USD 95–103 per barrel, while markets also monitored reports of plans to secure the shipping route through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Renewed rise in CPI inflation in Poland and the Eurozone

Statistics Poland’s flash estimate showed that Polish CPI inflation accelerated to 4.0% y/y in September, up from 3.4% in August, returning above the upper limit of the NBP’s target range. The increase was driven primarily by a 36.1% annual rise in fuel prices. At the same time, HICP inflation in the Eurozone rose to 3.8% y/y, compared with an expected 3.6%, complicating the European Central Bank’s position.

What to watch this week?

Zloty (PLN)

On Wednesday, the Monetary Policy Council will make a key decision on interest rates, while data on the NBP’s foreign exchange reserves will also be released. On Friday, an account of the discussion at the Council’s September meeting will be published.

Euro (EUR)

The PPI reading for August will be published on Monday. Eurozone retail sales data will be released on Tuesday, followed by the minutes of the latest ECB meeting on Thursday.

Dollar (USD)

The ISM services index will be released on Monday. The minutes of the FOMC meeting will be published on Wednesday, followed by jobless claims on Thursday and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday.

Pound sterling (GBP)

The services PMI will be released on Monday. Construction sector data will be published on Tuesday, while the credit conditions survey and a speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will be presented on Thursday.

Treasury Department | AFORTI.BIZ

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Data as of: 5 October 2026