Market Report / Surge in Brent crude prices, technology sell-off and a weaker zloty

In the latest AFORTI.BIZ Market Report, we summarise the key events of the past week that shaped sentiment in financial markets and the Polish economy. The main development in commodities markets was a sharp rise in Brent crude prices towards USD 117 per barrel, driven by renewed attacks in Saudi Arabia and incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. Profit-taking and a sell-off in the technology sector (AI) dominated equity markets, while the zloty weakened again against major foreign currencies. We invite you to read our analysis of how these developments affect the operations and finances of Polish businesses.

Key takeaways

Another wave of gains in Brent crude prices: Oil prices jumped by more than 6% to around USD 117 per barrel in response to attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Renewed weakness in the Polish zloty: A flight from risk pushed foreign exchange rates higher: USD/PLN rose to around PLN 3.92, EUR/PLN climbed towards PLN 4.40, and GBP/PLN exceeded PLN 5.24.
Tensions over French debt and rising Polish government bond yields: Fiscal concerns in France pushed its 10-year bond yield above 5.0%, putting pressure on Polish government bonds (the yield on 10-year Polish government bonds rose to 6.43%).

Economic indicators

Poland

PPI y/y (September): actual 6.1%; forecast 5.8%; previous 4.2%;
Industrial production y/y (September): actual 4.6%; forecast 3.1%; previous 4.0%;
Retail sales y/y (September): actual 6.7%; forecast 3.7%; previous 6.4%;
Unemployment rate (September): actual 5.8%; previous 5.8%;
M3 money supply y/y (September): actual 12.5%; forecast 11.4%; previous 11.3%;

Eurozone

Services PMI (October): actual 51.7; forecast 52.6; previous 53.0;
Manufacturing PMI (October): actual 52.4; forecast 52.7; previous 52.9;
Current account (August): actual 8.7B; forecast 29.2B; previous 27.2B;
ZEW index (October): actual 16.5; forecast 23.6; previous 25.8;
Consumer confidence index (October): actual -17.9; forecast -17.0; previous -18.8;

Germany

German manufacturing PMI (October): actual 54.2; forecast 53.5; previous 53.9;
German services PMI (October): actual 51.7; forecast 52.5; previous 52.9;
German ZEW economic sentiment (October): actual 28.1; forecast 30.2; previous 34.7;
German ZEW current economic conditions index (October): actual -35.9; forecast -45.0; previous -47.1;
German PPI y/y (September): actual 6.7%; forecast 6.3%; previous 4.6%;

United Kingdom

CPI y/y (September): actual 3.5%; forecast 3.4%; previous 3.1%;
Unemployment rate (August): actual 4.7%; forecast 4.9%; previous 4.9%;
Retail sales m/m (September): actual -0.4%; forecast -0.1%; previous 0.7%;
Services PMI (October): actual 53.1; forecast 51.8; previous 52.1;
Manufacturing PMI (October): actual 52.8; forecast 51.8; previous 51.9%;

USA

Initial jobless claims: actual 194K; forecast 200K; previous 200K;
Manufacturing PMI (October): actual 56.0; forecast 55.4; previous 55.9;
University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (October): actual 48.8; forecast 47.3; previous 46.3;

China

GDP y/y (Q3): actual 4.5%; forecast 4.4%; previous 4.3%;
Industrial production y/y (September): actual 5.5%; forecast 5.4%; previous 5.2%;
Retail sales y/y (September): actual 1.1%; forecast 0.5%; previous 0.4%;
PBoC loan prime rate (October): actual 3.50%; forecast 3.50%; previous 3.50%;

Currency market

Over the week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.74%. The euro traded in a range of 4.3542–4.4036.

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(source: www.money.pl)

The dollar (USD) also strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.61%. The dollar traded in a range of 3.8719–3.9340.

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(source: www.money.pl)

The pound sterling (GBP) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 1.15%. The pound traded in a range of 5.1819–5.2599.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Commodities market

Brent crude rose by 6.43%. The price traded in a range of USD 106.51–117.33 per barrel.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Gold fell by 4.16%. The price of gold traded in a range of USD 3,990.45–4,207.90 per ounce.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Equity market

The WIG index fell by 1.78%. The index traded in a range of 156,155–160,446.

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(source: www.money.pl)

What does this mean for businesses?

Importers: Rising foreign exchange rates increase the cost of purchasing raw materials and goods from abroad, requiring active hedging of currency risk.
Exporters: The weaker Polish zloty increases the PLN value of proceeds from international sales, improving the profitability of Polish suppliers in overseas markets.
Transport and logistics companies: The surge in oil prices will put direct upward pressure on wholesale fuel prices and operating costs across supply chains.

What drove the markets?

Another wave of gains pushes Brent crude towards USD 117 per barrel

Brent crude recorded a sharp weekly increase of +6.43%, reaching USD 116.79 per barrel and peaking at USD 117.33. The main market drivers were renewed attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and armed incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. Persistently high energy prices intensified concerns that central banks would maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.

Renewed zloty weakness and higher foreign exchange rates

A flight from risk and concerns surrounding the European financial sector led to renewed depreciation of the Polish currency. Over the week, USD/PLN rose to PLN 3.92, EUR/PLN jumped towards 4.40, and GBP/PLN exceeded 5.24, increasing the cost of settling international transactions for importers.

Tensions over the French budget and rising Polish bond yields

Growing political and fiscal uncertainty in France triggered a sell-off in French debt, pushing the yield on 10-year bonds above the symbolic 5.0% threshold. Market pressure also spread to Polish Treasury securities (SPW), with the yield on Polish 10-year bonds rising to 6.43%, up 8 basis points over the week.

AI sector sell-off and equity index fluctuations

Across global markets, investors grew increasingly doubtful about how quickly enormous investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure would generate returns amid high borrowing costs. This led to a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq falling by 2.6% on Thursday, and declines on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The WIG20 fell to 4,193.28 points, while the broad WIG index declined to 157,363 points.

What to watch this week?

Zloty (PLN)

The flash estimate of October CPI inflation will be published on Friday. The reading will indicate the level of price pressure just ahead of the Monetary Policy Council’s November meeting and the release of the NBP’s new forecast.

Euro (EUR)

Germany’s Ifo business climate index will be published on Monday. The ECB will meet to decide on interest rates on Thursday, with a rate of 2.65% forecast, followed by Christine Lagarde’s press conference. Preliminary GDP and CPI inflation data for Germany, France and the Eurozone will be released on Friday.

Dollar (USD)

Capital goods orders and the Conference Board consumer confidence index will be released on Tuesday. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with a rate of 4.00% expected. The preliminary US GDP reading for the third quarter and the core PCE index will be published on Thursday.

Pound sterling (GBP)

The UK government will present its Autumn Statement on Wednesday, setting out its budget assumptions and borrowing requirements, with a direct impact on the pound’s valuation.

Treasury Department | AFORTI.BIZ

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Data as of: 26 October 2026