Market Report / Oil price surge, falling core inflation and a stronger zloty

In the latest AFORTI.BIZ Market Report, we summarise the key events of the past week that influenced sentiment in financial markets and the Polish economy. The main development in commodities markets was a sharp rise in Brent crude prices driven by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. In Poland, the key developments were lower core inflation, a stronger zloty and new records for Warsaw’s WIG index. We invite you to read our analysis of how these developments affect the operations and settlements of Polish businesses.

Key takeaways

Sharp rise in Brent crude prices: Oil prices jumped by more than 5% to USD 109.73 per barrel following tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and disruption in the diesel market.
Lower core inflation in Poland: Despite CPI rising to 4.1% y/y, the key core inflation measure fell to 3.1% y/y, easing pressure on the Monetary Policy Council to raise interest rates quickly.
Dollar correction and a weaker euro: USD/PLN fell below PLN 3.90, while EUR/PLN declined towards PLN 4.37, bringing a slight easing of currency pressure.

Economic indicators

Poland

CPI y/y (September): actual 4.1%; forecast 4.0%; previous 3.4%;
CPI m/m (September): actual 0.7%; forecast 0.7%; previous 0.7%;
Current account balance (EUR) (August): actual -3587M; previous -1925M;
Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (October): actual 47.11; previous 48.00;
Core CPI y/y (September): actual 3.1%; previous 3.3%;

Eurozone

CPI y/y (September): actual 3.8%; forecast 3.8%; previous 3.2%;
Core CPI y/y (September): actual 2.5%; forecast 2.5%; previous 2.4%;
CPI m/m (September): actual 0.6%; forecast 0.6%; previous 0.4%;
Industrial production m/m (August): actual -0.5%; forecast 0.0%; previous -0.3%;
Trade balance (August): actual -18.1B; previous 10.7B;

Germany

German CPI m/m (September): actual 0.6%; forecast 0.6%; previous 0.2%;
German CPI y/y (September): actual 3.3%; forecast 3.3%; previous 2.9%;

United Kingdom

GDP m/m (August): actual 0.1%; forecast -0.1%; previous 0.4%;
Trade balance (August): actual -18.01B; forecast -21.90B; previous -19.30B;
Industrial production m/m (August): actual 0.8%; forecast -0.1%; previous 0.3%;

USA

Core CPI m/m (September): actual 0.3%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.3%;
CPI m/m (September): actual 0.6%; forecast 0.6%; previous 0.4%;
CPI y/y (September): actual 3.7%; forecast 3.6%; previous 3.4%;
Retail sales m/m (September): actual 0.8%; forecast 0.3%; previous 1.3%;
Initial jobless claims: actual 192K; forecast 192K; previous 198K;

China

CPI y/y (September): actual 0.9%; forecast 1.0%; previous 0.8%;
Trade balance (USD) (September): actual 133.53B; forecast 116.80B; previous 119.09B;
Exports y/y (September): actual 38.3%; forecast 25.5%; previous 25.0%;
PPI y/y (September): actual 5.0%; forecast 4.4%; previous 3.8%;

Currency market

Over the week, the euro (EUR) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.34%. The euro traded in a range of 4.3545–4.3915.

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(source: www.money.pl)

The dollar (USD) also weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.74%. The dollar traded in a range of 3.8758–3.9352.

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(source: www.money.pl)

The pound sterling (GBP) held its value against the zloty (PLN). The pound traded in a range of 5.1552–5.1955.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Commodities market

Brent crude rose by 5.17%. The price traded in a range of USD 102.56–109.96 per barrel.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Gold fell by 0.83%. The price of gold traded in a range of USD 4,096.15–4,238.57 per ounce.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Equity market

The WIG index rose by 1.47%. The index traded in a range of 156,809–160,280.

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(source: www.money.pl)

What does this mean for businesses?

Importers: A slight easing of currency pressure, resulting from the decline in the dollar and a stable euro, is providing temporary relief for overseas purchases. Rising raw material and freight costs remain the main challenge.
Exporters: EUR/PLN remaining at PLN 4.37 continues to support the profitability of sales to overseas markets, maintaining the elevated zloty value of foreign currency revenue.
Borrowers: Lower core inflation in Poland, with fuel prices having no direct impact on the rest of the basket, reduces the risk of immediate rate increases by the Monetary Policy Council, stabilising market financing costs in PLN.

What drove the markets?

Sharp surge in Brent crude prices

Brent crude prices rose by more than 5% over the week, closing Friday’s session at USD 109.73 per barrel. The jump was driven by mounting geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and reports of a US–Russian agreement on diesel supplies, highlighting deep disruption in the global fuel market.

Falling core inflation in Poland and the case involving the NBP Governor

Official data from Statistics Poland and the NBP confirmed that September CPI inflation rose to 4.1% y/y, while the key core inflation measure fell to 3.1% y/y from 3.3% in August. The absence of price pressure spreading across the entire basket weakens the case for a rapid interest rate increase by the Monetary Policy Council. At the same time, markets followed the adoption of a committee report recommending that the NBP Governor be brought before the Tribunal of State.

Dollar correction and zloty stabilisation

Despite higher PPI and CPI inflation readings in the USA, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell from 5.33% to around 5.10% as risk aversion increased. This translated into a weaker dollar: USD/PLN fell below PLN 3.90, while EUR/PLN declined to PLN 4.37.

Record highs for the WIG index and pressure on technology stocks (AI)

Warsaw’s WIG index reached a new all-time high of 160,222 points, while the WIG20 remained around 4,208 points. Global markets, however, saw a sell-off in the technology sector as investors became more sensitive to rising borrowing costs and the financing of enormous investments in AI infrastructure.

What to watch this week?

Zloty (PLN)

A key package of Polish economic data for September will be published on Tuesday, covering industrial production, producer price inflation (PPI), employment and wages in the corporate sector. Retail sales and M3 money supply readings will follow on Thursday, and the official unemployment rate will be published on Friday.

Euro (EUR)

The German Bundesbank’s monthly report will be published on Monday. The ZEW economic sentiment index and German PPI inflation data will be released on Tuesday. A series of preliminary October manufacturing and services PMI readings for France, Germany and the whole Eurozone will be published on Friday.

Dollar (USD)

The EIA’s weekly report on crude oil and fuel inventories will be published on Wednesday, followed by weekly jobless claims data on Thursday. Preliminary PMI readings and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released on Friday.

Pound sterling (GBP)

Labour market data covering the unemployment rate and average earnings will be released on Tuesday. Key September CPI and PPI inflation readings will be published on Wednesday, with speeches by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. Retail sales data and preliminary PMI readings will follow on Friday.

Treasury Department | AFORTI.BIZ

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Data as of: 19 October 2026