Weak US data, falling oil prices and Polish inflation on target
In the latest AFORTI.BIZ Market Report, we summarise the developments that influenced currency and commodity markets, as well as global investor sentiment, over the past week. Markets focused particularly on disappointing US labour market data, progress in US-Iran talks and Polish inflation falling to the NBP’s target. Find out what this could mean for businesses making payments in foreign currencies.
Key Takeaways
- The Polish zloty was volatile – it strengthened against the US dollar but weakened against the euro and the pound, changing the cost of future settlements.
- The dollar weakened – weaker US employment data reduced expectations of a more hawkish Fed stance, putting the currency under pressure.
- Oil prices fell – progress in US-Iran negotiations reduced geopolitical risk, pushing Brent crude lower.
- Inflation declined – Polish inflation reached the NBP’s 2.5% target, supporting the bond market, although weak PMI readings highlighted challenges in manufacturing.
Economic Indicators
Poland
- CPI (YoY) – June: Actual: 2.5% | Forecast: 2.7% | Previous: 3.1%
- Manufacturing PMI – June: Actual: 48.10 | Forecast: 49.70 | Previous: 49.40
- CPI (MoM) – June: Actual: -0.5% | Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.3%
Eurozone
- Unemployment rate – May: Actual: 6.2% | Forecast: 6.3% | Previous: 6.2%
- CPI (YoY) – June: Actual: 2.8% | Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.2%
- S&P Global Composite PMI – June: Actual: 50.0 | Forecast: 49.5 | Previous: 48.5
- Services PMI – June: Actual: 49.4 | Forecast: 48.9 | Previous: 47.7
Germany
- Unemployment rate – June: Actual: 6.3% | Forecast: 6.3% | Previous: 6.3%
- CPI (YoY) – June: Actual: 2.3% | Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.8%
- Retail sales (MoM) – May: Actual: 1.1% | Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: -0.4%
- Services PMI – June: Actual: 48.6 | Forecast: 46.8 | Previous: 48.1
United Kingdom
- GDP (YoY) – Q1: Actual: 0.9% | Forecast: 1.1% | Previous: 0.9%
- GDP (QoQ) – Q1: Actual: 0.8% | Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: 0.1%
- Business investment (YoY) – Q1: Actual: -1.3% | Forecast: -1.8% | Previous: 1.8%
- Services PMI – June: Actual: 48.8 | Forecast: 48.7 | Previous: 49.3
USA
- Non-farm payrolls change – June: Actual: 57K | Forecast: 114K | Previous: 129K
- Unemployment rate – June: Actual: 4.2% | Forecast: 4.3% | Previous: 4.3%
- ISM Manufacturing Index – June: Actual: 53.3 | Forecast: 53.8 | Previous: 54.0
- Initial jobless claims: Actual: 215K | Forecast: 219K | Previous: 218K
China
- Manufacturing PMI – June: Actual: 50.3 | Forecast: 50.1 | Previous: 50.0
- Services PMI – June: Actual: 50.2 | Forecast: 49.9 | Previous: 50.1
- Composite PMI – June: Actual: 50.6 | Forecast: n/a | Previous: 50.5
Currency Market
Over the week, the euro (EUR) gained 0.07% against the Polish zloty (PLN), trading in the 4.2817–4.3061 range.
Source: money.pl
Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) weakened by 0.41% against the Polish zloty (PLN), trading in the 3.7367–3.7795 range.
Source: money.pl
The British pound (GBP) gained 0.79% against the Polish zloty (PLN), trading in the 4.9638–5.0232 range.
Source: money.pl
Commodities Market
Brent crude oil fell by 2.15%, trading between USD 70.22 and USD 74.72 per barrel.
Source: money.pl
Gold gained 2.03%, trading between USD 3,959.95 and USD 4,203.55 per ounce.
Source: money.pl
Equity Market
Poland’s WIG Index gained 2.95%, trading in the 133,914–139,233 range.
Source: money.pl
What Does It Mean for Businesses?
Transport companies: The sharp increase in fuel prices in Poland following the reintroduction of the 23% VAT rate may force carriers to urgently review their pricing, despite lower global oil prices.
Exporters: The modest appreciation of the euro and pound against the zloty supports foreign-currency settlements by increasing the PLN value of receipts after conversion.
Importers: The recent weakening of the dollar may reduce the cost of overseas invoices, although the upcoming Monetary Policy Council decision could bring renewed FX volatility.
Manufacturing businesses: A very weak June PMI reading of 46.1 points signals a clear slowdown in the production sector, calling for more cautious inventory management.
What Influenced the Markets?
US Labour Market Data
June’s US labour market report was markedly weaker than expected. Employment rose by just 57,000 jobs, compared with market expectations of more than 110,000, while data for previous months were revised down by more than 70,000.
The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.2% was driven mainly by lower labour force participation. The weaker figures dampened market sentiment and reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance, resulting in a weaker dollar and lower US Treasury yields.
Progress in US-Iran Talks
Indirect talks between the United States and Iran in Doha brought a breakthrough. Easing tensions in the region reduced the geopolitical risk premium, driving further declines in oil prices, with Brent crude moving towards USD 72 per barrel.
The de-escalation also calmed markets concerned about a new wave of cost-driven inflation fuelled by higher energy prices.
Changes to NATO Financing
The upcoming NATO summit in Ankara is expected to bring a reorganisation of the Alliance’s budget, reflecting Donald Trump’s calls for Europe to assume a greater share of the financial burden.
European countries are expected to take more responsibility for defence, pledging a USD 160 billion military aid package for Ukraine for 2026–2027, without formal US participation. At the same time, member states plan to sign a declaration confirming their commitment to collective defence under Article 5.
Polish Inflation at the NBP Target
Poland’s annual CPI inflation unexpectedly fell to 2.5% in June, reaching the NBP’s inflation target. The data supported the domestic bond market, pushing 10-year Polish government bond yields towards 5.2%.
However, optimism was tempered by weak performance in Polish industry, with the June Manufacturing PMI falling sharply to 46.1 points.
What to Watch This Week
Polish Zloty (PLN)
The key event for the Polish zloty this week will be the Monetary Policy Council’s interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday, 8 July. The following day, investors will focus on the NBP Governor’s press conference.
Euro (EUR)
The euro will be influenced by Monday’s Eurozone retail sales data. On Thursday, 9 July, market attention will shift to the release of the ECB meeting minutes.
US Dollar (USD)
The US dollar is likely to react to Monday’s ISM Services Index. However, Wednesday’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes will be the key event for the currency.
British Pound (GBP)
Sterling will be influenced by Monday’s Construction PMI reading and Tuesday’s Halifax House Price Index data.
Treasury Department | AFORTI.BIZ
Do you make payments in EUR, USD or GBP? Check current exchange rates on the AFORTI.BIZ platform.
Data as at: 6 July 2026