Market Report: FX, commodities and equities | AFORTI.BIZ / USA-Iran conflict, debt market turmoil and inflationary pressure in the Eurozone

In the latest AFORTI.BIZ Market Report, we summarise the key events of the past week that dominated investor sentiment across financial markets. Global attention focused on renewed military escalation between the USA and Iran, which sent oil prices soaring and brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill, as well as a major bond sell-off that sharply pushed debt yields higher worldwide and in Poland. Sentiment was also shaped by concerns over the future path of interest rates amid accelerating inflation in the Eurozone and a surprisingly resilient US labour market, periodically eased by more dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. We invite you to read our analysis of how these developments affect the day-to-day operations and liquidity of Polish businesses.

Key takeaways

Oil price surge: Iran’s attack on US bases in Kuwait severely disrupted traffic through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude to around USD 95.90 per barrel.
Debt market turmoil: A global wave of bond selling pushed yields on Polish ten-year government bonds above 6.2%, significantly increasing the market cost of capital.
Inflationary pressure in Europe: Accelerating inflation in the Eurozone is putting the European Central Bank under intense pressure ahead of its September interest rate decision.

Economic indicators

Poland

GDP y/y (Q2): actual 3.9%; forecast 3.8%; previous 3.5%
CPI y/y (August): actual 3.4%; previous 3.0%
Manufacturing PMI (August): actual 48.30; forecast 49.60; previous 49.00

Eurozone

CPI y/y (August): actual 3.3%; forecast 3.3%; previous 2.9%
Core CPI y/y (August): actual 2.4%; forecast 2.5%; previous 2.5%
Services PMI (August): actual 51.6; forecast 51.7; previous 51.7
Retail sales m/m (July): actual -0.6%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.2%
Retail sales y/y (July): actual 0.6%; forecast 1.1%; previous 1.4%

Germany

German CPI m/m (August): actual 0.2%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.8%
German CPI y/y (August): actual 2.9%; forecast 3.0%; previous 2.8%
German factory orders m/m (July): actual 2.5%; forecast 0.3%; previous 3.7%
German retail sales m/m (July): actual -3.4%; forecast 0.4%; previous 0.0%
German manufacturing PMI (August): actual 54.3; forecast 54.1; previous 52.2

United Kingdom

Composite PMI (August): actual 52.5; forecast 52.5; previous 52.2
Services PMI (August): actual 52.5; forecast 52.8; previous 52.1
Manufacturing PMI (August): actual 51.7; forecast 51.5; previous 51.9

USA

Change in nonfarm payrolls (August): actual 162K; forecast 55K; previous 21K
Unemployment rate (August): actual 4.1%; forecast 4.1%; previous 4.1%
Average hourly earnings m/m (August): actual 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.2%
ISM services index (August): actual 55.4; forecast 54.1; previous 54.1
ADP nonfarm employment change (August): actual 38K; forecast 47K; previous 46K

China

Manufacturing PMI (August): actual 49.8; forecast 49.5; previous 49.2
Services PMI (August): actual 49.0; forecast 49.5; previous 49.0
Chinese composite PMI (August): actual 49.5; previous 49.3

Currency market

Over the week, the euro (EUR) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.69%. The euro traded in a range of 4.2986–4.3480.

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(source: www.money.pl)

The dollar (USD) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.99%. The dollar traded in a range of 3.7080–3.7548.

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(source: www.money.pl)

The pound sterling (GBP) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 1.12%. The pound traded in a range of 5.0078–5.0825.

(source: www.money.pl)

Commodities market

Brent crude rose by 8.69%. The price traded in a range of USD 88.55–97.52 per barrel.

(source: www.money.pl)

Gold fell by 0.57%. The price of gold traded in a range of USD 4,335.86–4,554.86 per ounce.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Equity market

The WIG index rose by 1.34%. The index traded in a range of 150,386–153,948.

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(source: www.money.pl)

What does this mean for businesses?

Importers: The slight strengthening of the zloty reduces the cost of foreign purchases, creating favourable conditions for settling current import transactions.
Exporters: The zloty’s continued appreciation at the turn of August and September may temporarily reduce the profitability of commercial contracts settled in euros and dollars.
Transport and logistics: The sharp rise in Brent crude to USD 95 will translate directly into higher prices at fuel stations and greater cost pressure in the transport sector.

What drove the markets?

Escalation of the USA-Iran conflict

Tensions in the Middle East reached a critical point after Iran attacked US bases in Kuwait. The escalation severely disrupted shipping through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, through which only four vessels carrying commodities passed on Thursday. The risk of supply disruptions triggered a sharp price reaction. Over the week, Brent crude rose by 6.5% to USD 95, while the US benchmark WTI gained as much as 8.8%.

Debt market sell-off

Global government bond markets were hit by a major sell-off driven by concerns over debt supply and persistently high inflation. Yields on ten-year US government bonds surged to 4.82% on Wednesday, while British yields reached their highest levels since 2008. In Japan, yields exceeded 3% for the first time in three decades, threatening to disrupt popular carry trades. Yields on Polish ten-year government bonds also rose, exceeding 6.2%.

Christopher Waller’s speech

Thursday’s speech by the Federal Reserve’s Christopher Waller brought temporary relief to overheated markets and allowed investors to catch their breath. The Fed Governor suggested that he would support keeping interest rates unchanged as price pressures ease. Following his remarks, the market-implied probability of a September rate increase in the USA fell to nearly 50%. This triggered a strong rebound in equity markets: the S&P 500 gained 1.06%, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.4%.

Accelerating inflation in the Eurozone

Eurozone HICP inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 3.3% y/y in August from 2.9% in July. Although core inflation edged down to 2.4%, the renewed external energy shock put significant pressure on the European Central Bank. Investors almost fully priced in another 25-basis-point increase in the ECB deposit rate to 2.5% at its meeting on 10 September, although this may bring the current tightening cycle to an end.

What to watch this week?

Zloty (PLN)

The key event of the week will be Wednesday’s interest rate decision by Poland’s Monetary Policy Council, with the consensus pointing to the reference rate remaining at 3.75%, followed by Thursday’s press conference by the President of the National Bank of Poland. Investors will also receive the latest data on the NBP’s foreign exchange reserves on Monday.

Euro (EUR)

Thursday’s ECB decision will be key for the common currency, with the market almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point increase in the deposit rate to 2.50%. Speeches by Christine Lagarde and final German CPI data for August may also cause volatility in EUR/PLN.

Dollar (USD)

Thursday’s producer price inflation reading will set the direction for the dollar, followed by Friday’s key consumer price inflation release for August, forecast at 3.4% y/y and 2.4% y/y for core inflation. The monthly OPEC report will also attract attention.

Pound sterling (GBP)

Friday’s package of UK data will be decisive for the pound, including GDP for July, which is expected to slow to 0.0% m/m, and industrial production. Earlier, on Tuesday, speeches by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey may increase volatility.

Treasury Department | AFORTI.BIZ

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Data as of: 7 September 2026