Market Report / Rising oil prices, Poland’s fuel support package and strong Polish economic data

In the latest AFORTI.BIZ Market Report, we summarise the key developments of the past week across global markets and the Polish economy. Investors focused on the sharp rise in Brent crude prices caused by the impasse surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, to which the Polish government responded by temporarily reducing the VAT rate on fuel. Market sentiment was also shaped by solid data showing an acceleration in Polish GDP growth and a lower inflation reading in the USA, which pushed the S&P 500 index to record highs. We invite you to read our analysis of how these developments affect corporate finances and liquidity.

Key takeaways

Rise in oil prices: The diplomatic impasse between the USA and Iran pushed Brent crude prices up by 7.74% to USD 88.
Strong Polish economy: GDP growth accelerated to 3.8% y/y in the second quarter, pushing back the prospect of interest rate cuts.
Fuel support package: The temporary reduction in VAT on fuel from 23% to 8% is intended to limit inflationary pressure.

Economic indicators

Poland

Manufacturing PMI (July): actual 49.00; forecast 47.50; previous 46.10;
Foreign exchange reserves (EUR) (July): actual 255.95B; previous 257.60B;

Eurozone

Manufacturing PMI (July): actual 51.9; forecast 52.0; previous 52.0;
Services PMI (July): actual 51.7; forecast 51.6; previous 49.4;
S&P Global composite PMI (July): actual 52.0; forecast 51.9; previous 50.0;
Retail sales (m/m) (June): actual -0.3%; forecast 0.1%; previous 0.4%;
Retail sales (y/y) (June): actual 0.7%; forecast 1.0%; previous 1.9%;

Germany

German manufacturing PMI (July): actual 52.2; forecast 52.2; previous 52.2;
German services PMI (July): actual 49.8; forecast 49.6; previous 48.8;
German factory orders (m/m) (June): actual 3.1%; forecast 0.5%; previous 0.3%;
German trade balance (June): actual 15.4B; forecast 17.2B; previous 19.4B;
German industrial production (m/m) (June): actual 0.2%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.7%;

United Kingdom

Manufacturing PMI (July): actual 51.9; forecast 52.8; previous 52.8;
Composite PMI (July): actual 52.2; forecast 52.1; previous 49.3;
Services PMI (July): actual 52.1; forecast 51.8; previous 48.8;
Halifax house price index (m/m) (July): actual 0.0%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.2%;
Halifax house price index (y/y) (July): actual 0.1%; forecast 0.4%; previous 0.7%;

USA

Change in nonfarm payrolls (July): actual -23K; forecast 85K; previous 20K;
Unemployment rate (July): actual 4.1%; forecast 4.2%; previous 4.2%;
ISM manufacturing PMI (July): actual 55.6; forecast 54.0; previous 53.3;
ISM services PMI (July): actual 54.1; forecast 54.5; previous 54.0;
ADP nonfarm employment change (July): actual 44K; forecast 88K; previous 95K;

China

Caixin manufacturing PMI (m/m) (July): actual 50.9; forecast 51.9; previous 51.7;
Caixin services PMI (July): actual 50.4; forecast 53.7; previous 54.1;
Trade balance (USD) (July): actual 112.50B; forecast 108.60B; previous 125.62B;
Exports (y/y) (July): actual 23.9%; forecast 22.2%; previous 27.0%;
Import balance (y/y) (July): actual 27.5%; forecast 27.9%; previous 38.0%;

Currency market

Over the week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.18%. The euro traded in a range of 4.2870–4.3125.

NaqbGp22zvMAAAAASUVORK5CYII=

(source: www.money.pl)

The dollar (USD) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.11%. The dollar traded in a range of 3.7149–3.7426.

wHKnfBpQ8bq0AAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

(source: www.money.pl)

The pound sterling (GBP) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.41%. The pound traded in a range of 5.0004–5.0461.

BqncmPZvuh8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=

(source: www.money.pl)

Commodities market

Brent crude rose by 7.74%. The price traded in a range of USD 83.40–90.00 per barrel.

SfYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=

(source: www.money.pl)

Gold rose by 0.69%. The price of gold traded in a range of USD 4,368.20–4,498.84 per ounce.

ei8IV4AAAAASUVORK5CYII=

(source: www.money.pl)

Equity market

The WIG index rose by 0.96%. The index traded in a range of 150,960–154,510.

QHFaA+i0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=

(source: www.money.pl)

What does this mean for businesses?

Importers and exporters: Low EUR/PLN volatility around 4.31 supports precise planning of foreign currency settlement dates and the hedging of exchange rate risk.
Energy sector: Government analyses concerning a windfall tax could directly weigh on the margins of fuel and gas companies this autumn
Transport: The VAT reduction to 8% will lower fuel prices, providing carriers with temporary relief amid rising oil prices.

What moved the markets?

Impasse over the Strait of Hormuz

Negotiations between the USA and Iran on restoring freedom of navigation have reached an impasse. Tehran has made reopening the route conditional on the lifting of sanctions and the payment of compensation, to which Washington responded by threatening to extend the naval blockade. The increase in the geopolitical risk premium resulted in an approximately 4% weekly rise in Brent crude prices, which closed the week at USD 88 per barrel.

Expectations of an ECB interest rate hike

While pressure for further monetary tightening is easing in the USA, another interest rate hike remains the baseline scenario in the Eurozone. According to a Reuters consensus, 83% of economists expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September. These expectations are being driven by persistent inflation of 2.9% y/y in July, alongside GDP growth of 0.4% q/q in the second quarter.

Government intervention in the fuel market

Between 17 and 31 August, the government will reintroduce a support package for the fuel market. The measures include a temporary reduction in the VAT rate from 23% to 8% and the introduction of maximum retail prices. According to government estimates, the tax cut will reduce prices at fuel distributors by approximately PLN 0.90–1.00 per litre, limiting the direct impact of rising crude oil prices on domestic inflation.

Strong data from the Polish economy

In the second quarter, Polish GDP growth accelerated to 3.8% y/y, compared with 3.5% in the first quarter, rising by a seasonally adjusted 0.9% q/q. At the same time, the July CPI reading increased to 3.0% y/y. Solid economic activity combined with inflation above the NBP’s target limits the scope for interest rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Council, stabilising the yield on 10-year government bonds at around 5.82%. Industrial and construction confidence indicators also improved.

What to watch this week?

Zloty (PLN)

The implementation of the government’s fuel support package on Monday, 17 August, will affect the zloty. The temporary reduction in the VAT rate on fuel to 8% is intended to limit the direct impact of rising oil prices on domestic inflation.

Euro (EUR)

The key driver for the common currency will be the release of preliminary Eurozone PMI readings for August on Friday, 21 August. The readings will provide an update on economic conditions and influence market expectations regarding future ECB interest rate decisions.

Dollar (USD)

The dollar will be affected by industrial production data from the USA on Tuesday, 18 August, and, above all, the release of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting on Wednesday, 19 August, which will shed light on the monetary policy outlook.

Pound sterling (GBP)

The key release for the pound will be the UK CPI inflation reading for July on Wednesday, 19 August. The level of price pressure will shape investor expectations regarding the Bank of England’s next steps in its monetary tightening cycle.

Treasury Department | AFORTI.BIZ

If you are planning foreign currency settlements, check current exchange rates or lock in an exchange rate for a future date on the AFORTI.BIZ platform.

Data as of: 17 August 2026