Record highs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, yen intervention and fall in US employment
In the latest AFORTI.BIZ Market Report, we summarise the events that affected currency and commodity prices and global investor sentiment over the past week. Markets focused primarily on historic highs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the first coordinated intervention by the USA and Japan to support the yen in years, and a disappointing US labour market report that significantly weakened the dollar. High volatility in oil prices was accompanied by a gold rally. Find out what this could mean for your company’s finances and liquidity.
Key takeaways
- Oil price volatility: Brent crude fell by almost 9% following sharp fluctuations during the week.
- Strong zloty and the Warsaw Stock Exchange: The WIG index exceeded 150,000 points for the first time in history.
- Weak data from the USA: A decline in US employment of 23,000 weakened the dollar across the markets.
Economic indicators
Poland
- Foreign exchange reserves (EUR) (July): actual 255.95B; previous 257.80B;
- Manufacturing PMI (July): actual 49.00; forecast 47.50; previous 48.10;
Eurozone
- Manufacturing PMI (July): actual 51.9; forecast 52.0; previous 52.0;
- Services PMI (July): actual 51.7; forecast 51.6; previous 49.4;
- S&P Global Composite PMI (July): actual 52.0; forecast 51.9; previous 50.0;
- Retail sales (y/y) (June): actual 0.7%; forecast 1.0%; previous 1.9%;
- PPI (y/y) (June): actual 4.8%; forecast 4.8%; previous 5.9%;
Germany
- German industrial production (m/m) (June): actual 0.2%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.7%;
- German factory orders (m/m) (June): actual 3.1%; forecast 0.5%; previous 0.3%;
- German manufacturing PMI (July): actual 52.2; forecast 52.2; previous 52.2;
- German services PMI (July): actual 49.8; forecast 49.6; previous 48.8;
- German trade balance (June): actual 15.4B; forecast 17.2B; previous 19.4B;
United Kingdom
- Manufacturing PMI (July): actual 51.9; forecast 52.8; previous 52.8;
- Services PMI (July): actual 52.1; forecast 51.8; previous 48.8;
- Halifax house price index (y/y) (July): actual 0.1%; forecast 0.4%; previous 0.7%;
USA
- Nonfarm payrolls change (July): actual -23K; forecast 85K; previous 20K;
- Unemployment rate (July): actual 4.1%; forecast 4.2%; previous 4.2%;
- ISM services index (July): actual 54.1; forecast 54.5; previous 54.0;
- Initial jobless claims: actual 199K; forecast 203K; previous 198K;
- Trade balance (June): actual -73.30B; forecast -73.00B; previous -77.60B;
China
- Caixin manufacturing PMI (m/m) (July): actual 50.9; forecast 51.9; previous 51.7;
- Trade balance (USD) (July): actual 112.50B; forecast 108.80B; previous 125.62B;
- Exports (y/y) (July): actual 23.9%; forecast 22.2%; previous 27.0%;
Currency market
This week, the euro (EUR) weakened by 0.10% against the Polish zloty (PLN). The euro traded between 4.2870 and 4.3148.
(source: www.money.pl)
Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) weakened by 0.32% against the Polish zloty (PLN). The dollar traded between 3.7078 and 3.7509.
(source: www.money.pl)
Pound sterling (GBP) weakened by 0.28% against the Polish zloty (PLN). The pound traded between 5.0004 and 5.0389.
(source: www.money.pl)
Commodities market
Brent crude fell by 8.78%. It traded between USD 74.37 and USD 86.24 per barrel.
(source: www.money.pl)
Meanwhile, gold rose by 7.29%. It traded between USD 4,077.80 and USD 4,429.70 per ounce.
(source: www.money.pl)
Equity market
The WIG index rose by 2.97%. The index traded between 147,516 and 152,621.
(source: www.money.pl)
What does this mean for businesses?
- Importers: A stronger zloty significantly reduces the cost of foreign purchases and settlements in foreign currencies.
- Exporters: Lower euro and dollar exchange rates directly reduce the profitability of foreign sales.
- Loans and borrowing: Higher bond yields may increase the cost of debt and business financing.
- Transport: High oil price volatility and uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz make fuel costs more difficult to calculate.
What moved the markets?
Oil price fluctuations
The week began with a sharp sell-off in Brent crude. A 5% decline on Monday, followed by further losses on Tuesday, pushed prices below USD 80 per barrel. At the time, the market was pricing in the prospect of a peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The situation reversed on Thursday, when the price rebounded by 3.8% to USD 82.49 in response to reports of planned transit fees by Iran and restrictions targeting hostile vessels.
Weak US labour market data
The July NFP report significantly disappointed the market, with employment falling by 23,000 compared with an expected increase of 85,000. In addition, data for previous months were revised down by a total of 108,000 jobs. The release weakened the dollar and led to higher bond yields. Paradoxically, it also drove gains on Wall Street by reducing concerns about further monetary policy tightening by the Fed.
Zloty resilience
The Polish currency remained stable despite heightened volatility across global markets. On a weekly basis, EUR/PLN remained broadly unchanged, while USD/PLN stabilised in the PLN 3.72–3.74 range. Domestic assets were supported by record highs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, where the WIG index exceeded 150,000 points for the first time in history.
Coordinated intervention in the yen market
The US Treasury and the Bank of Japan conducted a coordinated currency intervention to support the yen, marking the first such action by Washington since 1998. The US side used its euro reserves for the operation. The intervention came amid growing expectations of further monetary policy tightening in Japan, where interest rates have reached their highest level in 31 years.
What to watch this week?
Polish zloty (PLN)
The zloty will react to the final CPI reading and the preliminary GDP estimate scheduled for Thursday, 13 August. On Friday, 14 August, markets will turn their attention to Poland’s core inflation data.
Euro (EUR)
Monday’s Sentix index reading on 10 August will be key for the euro. Later in the week, investors will focus on Wednesday’s German CPI reading and preliminary Eurozone GDP data, due to be released on Friday, 14 August.
US dollar (USD)
Wednesday’s CPI data on 12 August will be the main driver for the dollar. On Friday, 14 August, the currency will also be influenced by retail sales data and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Pound sterling (GBP)
The pound will react to BRC retail sales data on Tuesday, 11 August. The key event of the week for the British currency, however, will be Thursday’s preliminary estimate of UK GDP for the second quarter, due on 13 August.
Treasury Department | AFORTI.BIZ
With the zloty stronger, take a moment to review your planned settlements. Check current exchange rates and exchange currency on the AFORTI.BIZ platform.
Data as of: 10 August 2026