Market Report: FX, commodities and equities | AFORTI.BIZ / Polish interest rate decision, Warsaw Stock Exchange records and PLN 102 billion civil protection programme

In the latest Market Report, we summarise the key events of the past week that shaped sentiment in financial markets and the Polish economy. The main development in Poland was the Monetary Policy Council’s decision to keep interest rates at 3.75% and the dovish tone of the NBP press conference. At the same time, the WIG and WIG20 reached new all-time highs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, although gains slowed in the second half of the week as US bond yields rose sharply. In the currency market, emerging-market currencies remained under pressure, while a key economic policy development was the government’s adoption of a civil protection programme worth PLN 102.4 billion. We invite you to read our analysis of how these developments affect the operations and finances of Polish businesses.

Key takeaways

NBP interest rates remain steady: The Monetary Policy Council kept the reference rate at 3.75%. The NBP Governor’s remarks indicated no need for immediate rate increases following a decline in core inflation in September, although the Council remains ready to respond if the November forecast shows stronger inflationary pressure.
Record highs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and pressure from global debt markets: The WIG (159,012 points) and WIG20 (4,222 points) set new records. Further gains were curbed by profit-taking after the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose towards 5.35%
Elevated foreign exchange rates: Sustained global demand for the dollar and geopolitical tensions prevented the zloty from strengthening. EUR/PLN stood at around PLN 4.38, USD/PLN near PLN 3.91 and GBP/PLN at approximately PLN 5.18.

Economic indicators

Poland

Interest rate decision (October): actual 3.75%; forecast 3.75%; previous 3.75%;
Foreign exchange reserves (EUR) (September): actual 260.11B; previous 263.03B;

Eurozone

PPI y/y (August): actual 8.2%; forecast 8.1%; previous 5.8%;
Retail sales y/y (August): actual 0.8%; forecast 1.0%; previous 0.4%;
S&P Global composite PMI (September): actual 53.1; forecast 53.1; previous 52.0%;
PPI m/m (August): actual 1.9%; forecast 1.9%; previous 1.6%;

Germany

German factory orders m/m (August): actual -10.6%; forecast -0.9%; previous 3.2%;
German industrial production m/m (August): actual 2.0%; forecast 0.5%; previous -1.2%;
German trade balance (August): actual 19.5B; forecast 19.0B; previous 21.6B;
German services PMI (September): actual 52.9; forecast 52.9; previous 49.7;
German composite PMI (September): actual 53.8; forecast 53.8; previous 51.8;

United Kingdom

Services PMI (September): actual 52.1; forecast 51.7; previous 52.5;
Construction PMI (September): actual 46.1; forecast 45.0; previous 44.3;
Composite PMI (September): actual 52.0; forecast 51.7; previous 52.5;

USA

Initial jobless claims: actual 197K; forecast 200K; previous 199K;
University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, preliminary (October): actual 44.7; forecast 50.5; previous 50.9;
ISM services index (September): actual 54.9; forecast 55.1; previous 55.4;
Jobless claims: actual 1716K; forecast 1710K; previous 1699K;
Trade balance (August): actual -105.60B; forecast -100.80B; previous -92.80B;

China

Foreign exchange reserves (USD) (September): actual 3.400T; previous 3.438T;

Currency market

Over the week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.04%. The euro traded in a range of 4.3628–4.4307.

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(source: www.money.pl)

The dollar (USD) also strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.50%. The dollar traded in a range of 3.8700–3.9554.

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(source: www.money.pl)

The pound sterling (GBP) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.40% amid significant fluctuations. The pound traded in a range of 5.1394–5.2364.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Commodities market

Brent crude rose by 1.62%. The price traded in a range of USD 97.37–105.85 per barrel.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Gold also rose by 1.25%. The price of gold traded in a range of USD 4,094.30–4,228.00 per ounce.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Equity market

The WIG index rose by 2.32%. The index traded in a range of 154,648–159,339.

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(source: www.money.pl)

What does this mean for businesses?

Importers: Persistently higher foreign exchange rates increase the cost of purchasing raw materials and goods from abroad, requiring active management of currency risk and payment schedules.
Exporters: Elevated exchange rates increase the zloty value of proceeds from international sales, improving the profitability of Polish suppliers in overseas markets.
Construction, infrastructure and security sectors: The government’s PLN 102.4 billion civil protection programme will generate strong demand between 2027 and 2031 for construction work (shelters and places of refuge), rescue equipment and the development of resilient water and energy infrastructure.

What drove the markets?

Monetary Policy Council keeps interest rates unchanged

The Monetary Policy Council kept the NBP reference rate at 3.75%. Governor Adam Glapiński’s remarks struck a moderate tone. Although the Council has declared its readiness to raise rates in November if the new inflation forecast is unfavourable, there is currently no direct reason to tighten monetary policy, as the decline in core inflation in September indicates that high fuel prices have had a limited impact on other sectors.

Foreign exchange rates remain elevated

Geopolitical tensions and a stronger dollar in global markets maintained pressure on emerging-market currencies. At the end of the week, USD/PLN stood near PLN 3.91, EUR/PLN around PLN 4.38 and GBP/PLN approximately PLN 5.18, keeping settlement costs elevated for importers.

Poland adopts a PLN 102.4 billion civil protection programme

The government adopted a resolution establishing a PLN 102.4 billion civil protection and civil defence programme for 2027–2031. The funds are intended for building and adapting shelters, safeguarding the continuity of energy and water supplies, and developing rescue infrastructure, representing a substantial cost of civilian preparedness amid a persistently high deficit.

Record highs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and rising US bond yields

The start of the week brought new highs on the Warsaw market. The WIG20 set a record of 4,222 points, while the WIG reached 159,339 points. In the following days, however, profit-taking prevailed amid rising bond yields worldwide (the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds approached 5.35%, while 30-year yields reached multi-year highs).

What to watch this week?

Zloty (PLN)

Detailed CPI inflation data for September and the current account balance will be published on Wednesday. A key core inflation reading will follow on Thursday.

Euro (EUR)

Germany’s final CPI inflation reading will be announced on Tuesday. Eurozone industrial production and French inflation data will be released on Thursday, followed by the final CPI reading for the whole Eurozone on Friday.

Dollar (USD)

OPEC’s monthly report will be presented on Tuesday. Key September CPI inflation data and the Fed’s Beige Book will be published on Wednesday. Retail sales and PPI inflation figures will follow on Thursday, and industrial production readings on Friday.

Pound sterling (GBP)

A series of speeches by Bank of England officials is scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. A package of data covering August GDP, industrial production and the trade balance will be released on Thursday, followed by a speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey on Friday.

Treasury Department | AFORTI.BIZ

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Data as of: 12 October 2026