Oil price surge, ECB rate hike and hawkish pause by Poland’s MPC
In the latest AFORTI.BIZ Market Report, we summarise the most important events of the past week that dominated investor sentiment across financial markets. The key factor was a sharp rise in crude oil prices to USD 107–110 per barrel, triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in key shipping straits. Investor sentiment was also shaped by the European Central Bank’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 bps in response to mounting inflationary pressure and by the hawkish pause by Poland’s MPC, which, together with a global bond sell-off, pushed yields on Polish 10-year bonds above 6.32%. We invite you to read our analysis of how these developments affect the liquidity and finances of Polish businesses.
Key takeaways
- Sharp surge in oil prices: Brent crude rose by 8.96%—reaching nearly USD 110 per barrel at its peak—in response to escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to commodity shipping.
- ECB interest rate hike: The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 bps, with the deposit facility rate rising to 2.50%, in response to persistent inflationary pressure driven by energy prices.
- Poland’s MPC hawkish pause: Poland’s Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates at 3.75%. In addition, the NBP president ruled out cuts in 2026 and signalled that rates would remain unchanged until mid-2027.
Economic indicators
Poland
- Interest rate decision (September): actual 3.75%; forecast 3.75%; previous 3.75%;
- Foreign exchange reserves (EUR) (August): actual 263.03B; previous 255.95B%;
- Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (September): actual 48.00; previous 47.39;
Eurozone
- GDP q/q (Q2): actual 0.6%; forecast 0.4%; previous -0.2%;
- GDP y/y (Q2): actual 0.5%; forecast 1.0%; previous 0.3%;
- Interest rate decision (September): actual 2.65%; forecast 2.65%; previous 2.40%;
- Deposit facility rate (September): actual 2.50%; forecast 2.50%; previous 2.25%;
- ECB marginal lending facility (September): actual 2.90%; no forecast; previous 2.65%;
Germany
- Industrial production in Germany m/m (July): actual -1.1%; forecast 0.1%; previous 0.0%;
- German trade balance (July): actual 21.3B; forecast 16.0B; previous 15.4B;
- German CPI m/m (August): actual 0.2%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.8%;
- German CPI y/y (August): actual 2.9%; forecast 2.9%; previous 2.8%;
- German HICP y/y (August): actual 2.9%; forecast 2.9%; previous 2.8%;
United Kingdom
- Industrial production m/m (July): actual 0.2%; forecast -0.2%; previous -0.2%;
- Trade balance (July): actual -20.97B; forecast -22.60B; previous -23.01B;
- GDP y/y (July): actual 1.6%; forecast 1.2%; previous 1.1%;
USA
- CPI y/y (August): actual 3.4%; forecast 3.4%; previous 3.4%;
- CPI m/m (August): actual 0.4%; forecast 0.4%; previous 0.1%;
- Core CPI y/y (August): actual 2.4%; forecast 2.4%; previous 2.5%;
- PPI m/m (August): actual 0.4%; forecast 0.4%; previous 0.1%;
- Initial jobless claims: actual 206K; forecast 205K; previous 207K;
China
- Trade balance (USD) (August): actual 119.09B; forecast 118.60B; previous 112.50B;
- CPI y/y (August): actual 0.8%; forecast 0.8%; previous 0.5%;
- CPI m/m (August): actual 0.4%; forecast 0.3%; previous -0.1%;
- PPI y/y (August): actual 3.8%; forecast 3.6%; previous 3.5%;
Currency market
Over the week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.28%. The euro traded in a range of 4.3055–4.3284.
(source: www.money.pl)
The dollar (USD) also strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.41%. The dollar traded in a range of 3.7009–3.7377.
(source: www.money.pl)
The pound sterling (GBP) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.51%. The pound traded in a range of 5.0119–5.0446.
(source: www.money.pl)
Commodities market
Brent crude rose by 8.96%. It traded in a range of USD 96.05–109.89 per barrel.
(source: www.money.pl)
Gold, meanwhile, fell by 1.97%. It traded in a range of USD 4,342.26–4,486.29 per ounce.
(source: www.money.pl)
Equity market
The WIG index rose by 0.74%. The index traded in a range of 153,628–156,901.
(source: www.money.pl)
What does this mean for businesses?
- Importers: A weaker zloty combined with higher producer inflation in the USA directly increases the cost of purchases and international settlements.
- Exporters: Higher foreign currency exchange rates increase the zloty value of sales proceeds, supporting the profitability of Polish companies in foreign markets.
- Industrial companies: Another ECB rate hike and rising energy commodity prices will intensify pressure on manufacturing margins, forcing companies to keep tighter control of energy and product costs.
What drove the markets?
Sharp oil price surge and crisis in Middle Eastern straits
Brent crude rose by 8.96% over the week, briefly nearing USD 110 per barrel on Friday, while US WTI gained 12.0% to USD 102.48. The sharp rise in risk premiums was driven by attacks by Houthi militants around the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait and a drone strike on Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline, which severely disrupted flows along fuel transport routes.
ECB interest rate hike of 25 bps
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank raised all three key interest rates by 25 bps. The ECB directly attributed its decision to renewed inflationary pressure caused by rising energy prices and revised its Eurozone inflation forecast for 2027 upwards to 2.5%.
Poland’s MPC hawkish pause and rate cuts pushed back
At its meeting on 8–9 September, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council kept the reference rate at 3.75%. However, NBP president Adam Glapiński said at a press conference that rate cuts in 2026 were unrealistic and that rates could remain unchanged until mid-2027 in response to rising inflation and expansionary fiscal policy, with the deficit estimated at 7.1% of GDP in 2027.
BRICS summit in New Delhi and growth of local-currency settlements
A summit of leaders of the BRICS bloc was held in India, with the participation of Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Masoud Pezeshkian. During the meeting, China called for participation in peace processes in the Middle East and announced the AI Open Source Zone technology project, while member countries reaffirmed their intention to continue increasing settlements in national currencies without using the dollar.
What to watch this week?
Zloty (PLN)
The Polish currency market will focus on Tuesday’s CPI inflation reading for August and Wednesday’s release of core inflation data. The week will conclude for the zloty with Friday’s industrial production data for August.
Euro (EUR)
Tuesday’s ZEW economic sentiment indices for Germany and the Eurozone will be important for the common currency. On Thursday, the final August HICP inflation reading for the Eurozone will be released alongside the core figure, while Friday’s attention will focus on the Eurogroup meeting and ECOFIN proceedings.
Dollar (USD)
The most important event of the week globally will be Wednesday’s Fed (FOMC) interest rate decision, accompanied by the release of new macroeconomic projections and a press conference. Earlier that day, August retail sales data will be published, followed on Thursday by the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.
Pound sterling (GBP)
Wednesday’s August CPI inflation release and Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision will be key for the British currency. These events will be preceded by Tuesday’s package of labour market data.
Treasury Department | AFORTI.BIZ
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Data as of: 14 September 2026