Market Report / Oil above $100, new tariffs and a strong dollar

In the latest AFORTI.BIZ Market Report, we summarise the events that influenced currency and commodity prices, as well as global investor sentiment, over the past week. Markets focused primarily on the sharp rise in oil prices driven by the threat of charges in the Strait of Hormuz, the strong appreciation of the dollar pushing the yen to historic lows, and the introduction of new tariffs affecting international trade. Find out what this could mean for businesses settling transactions in foreign currencies.

Key takeaways

Oil surges: Houthi attacks and the threat of charges in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices towards $100 per barrel
Strong dollar: Inflation risks significantly strengthened the dollar and pushed the Japanese yen to a 40-year low.
Tariffs on China: New EU customs charges drastically reduced the inflow of low-cost goods from Asian e-commerce platforms.

Economic indicators

Poland

Retail sales (YoY) (June): actual 6.8%; forecast 5.2%; previous 4.4%;
Industrial production (YoY) (June): actual 7.6%; forecast 7.2%; previous 4.1%;
Corporate sector wages (YoY) (June): actual 5.9%; forecast 5.6%; previous 5.8%;
Unemployment rate (June): actual 5.8%; forecast 5.8%; previous 6.0%;
PPI (YoY) (June): actual 1.7%; forecast 1.6%; previous 2.4%;

Eurozone

Interest rate decision (July): actual 2.40%; forecast 2.40%; previous 2.40%;
Manufacturing PMI (July): actual 52.0; forecast 51.5; previous 51.4;
Services PMI (July): actual 51.6; forecast 49.8; previous 49.4;
S&P Global Composite PMI (July): actual 51.9; forecast 50.3; previous 50.0;
Consumer confidence (July): actual -15.9; forecast -17.0; previous -17.8;

Germany

German Manufacturing PMI (July): actual 52.2; forecast 50.4; previous 50.3;
German Services PMI (July): actual 49.6; forecast 49.0; previous 48.8;
German Composite PMI (July): actual 51.2; forecast 49.8; previous 49.5;
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July): actual 23.4; forecast 11.2; previous 9.5;
German GfK Consumer Climate (August): actual -29.6; forecast -28.7; previous -29.3;

United Kingdom

CPI (YoY) (June): actual 2.6%; forecast 2.7%; previous 2.8%;
Core CPI (YoY) (June): actual 2.6%; forecast 2.5%; previous 2.6%;
Retail sales (YoY) (June): actual 4.2%; forecast 2.3%; previous 3.5%;
Unemployment rate (May): actual 4.9%; forecast 4.9%; previous 4.9%;
Composite PMI (July): actual 52.1; forecast 49.7; previous 49.3;

USA

Services PMI (July): actual 53.6; forecast 51.3; previous 51.2;
Building permits (June): actual 1.374M; forecast 1.387M; previous 1.410M;
Manufacturing PMI (July): actual 53.8; forecast 54.4; previous 53.9;
Initial jobless claims: actual 187K; forecast 211K; previous 209K;
New home sales (June): actual 628K; forecast 609K; previous 618K;

China

PBoC Loan Prime Rate (July): actual 3.50%; forecast 3.50%; previous 3.50%;
PBoC Loan Prime Rate (July): actual 3.00%; forecast 3.00%; previous 3.00%;
Foreign direct investment (June): actual -5.00%; no forecast; previous -8.60%;

Currency market

Over the week, the euro (EUR) weakened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 0.50%. The euro traded within a range of 4.3132–4.3453.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Meanwhile, the dollar (USD) strengthened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 0.06%. The dollar traded within a range of 3.7858–3.8129.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Pound sterling (GBP) weakened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 0.89%. The pound traded within a range of 5.0511–5.1111.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Commodities market

BRENT crude oil rose by a further 11.65%. The price traded within a range of $88.05–$98.31 per barrel.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Meanwhile, gold rose by 0.87%. The price of gold traded within a range of $3,990.50–$4,169.60 per ounce.

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(source: www.money.pl)

Equity market

The WIG index rose by 1.21%. The index traded within a range of 141,573–145,654.

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(source: www.money.pl)

What does this mean for businesses?

Importers: A strong dollar and US tariffs are putting pressure on profitability and increasing procurement costs.
Exporters: A strong dollar supports foreign currency revenues, but new US tariffs on the EU are reducing profitability
Industry: Poland’s recovery is encouraging, but the global bond sell-off is noticeably increasing the cost of financing investments.
E-commerce: EU tariffs are restricting low-cost imports from China, creating an opportunity for Polish retailers.

What moved the markets?

Rising oil prices

Brent crude prices rose sharply last week, reaching $100 per barrel following attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. The surge in oil prices caused a significant supply shock across markets. Higher energy costs revived concerns about persistently high global inflation, forcing central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policies.

New tariffs put pressure on trade

Global trade came under pressure from new trade barriers. The US administration imposed tariffs of 10–12.5% on goods from more than 60 countries, including the EU and China, increasing import costs and intensifying inflationary pressure. At the same time, the European Union introduced a fixed charge of €3 per item on low-cost parcels from Asian e-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein. These measures are restricting international trade and increasing procurement costs for businesses.

Hawkish signals from the ECB

The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25%, but the meeting itself had a hawkish tone. In light of the energy shock, some ECB members considered raising interest rates as early as July, while markets are currently pricing in a 70% probability of such a move in September. Despite this, the single currency weakened against the strengthening dollar, with EUR/USD falling below 1.14.

Japanese yen sell-off

The combination of higher oil prices and sharply rising US bond yields triggered a sell-off in the Japanese currency. USD/JPY approached 164, reaching levels not seen in nearly 40 years. As Japan is heavily dependent on energy imports, such a significant weakening of the yen is adding to domestic inflationary pressure and increasing the likelihood of intervention by the Bank of Japan.

What to watch this week

Polish zloty (PLN)

The zloty will remain influenced by the release of the preliminary CPI inflation reading. The data will be published on Friday, 31 July, and will help markets assess the future path of NBP interest rates in the context of rising oil prices.

Euro (EUR)

The euro will be shaped by the preliminary Eurozone GDP data for the second quarter, scheduled for release on Wednesday, 29 July. Friday’s preliminary inflation estimates for the region will also provide an important impulse for the single currency.

US dollar (USD)

The dollar will react to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, 29 July. Elevated volatility in the USD may continue on Thursday, 30 July, following the release of US GDP data and the PCE reading.

Pound sterling (GBP)

The Bank of England’s interest rate decision, scheduled for Thursday, 30 July, will be crucial for sterling. On the same day, investors will also examine the MPC voting split and the central bank’s latest inflation projections.

Treasury Department | AFORTI.BIZ

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Data as of: 27 July 2026