1 June 2026

Market Summary by AFORTI: US–Iran peace agreement, lower-than-expected inflation in Poland, bilateral agreement between Poland and the UK

Last week, the markets were dominated by reports of a US–Iran peace framework agreement, an unexpected fall in Poland’s May inflation rate to 3.1%, and the signing of a Polish–British defence treaty. Brent crude prices plunged sharply, whilst gold prices and the domestic WIG index recorded solid gains, with the zloty strengthening against both the euro and the dollar. In the coming week, investors’ attention will focus on the RPP’s decision on interest rates, CPI inflation data for the Eurozone, the US labour market report, and scheduled speeches by the heads of the ECB and the Bank of England.  

Economic indicators

Poland

  1. Retail sales (y/y) (April): actual 2.8%; forecast 3.0%; previous 9.8%;
  2. M3 money supply (y/y) (April): actual 11.3%; forecast 11.2%; previous 11.5%;
  3. Unemployment rate (April): actual 5.0%; forecast 5.0%; previous 5.1%;
  4. Car registrations (y/y) (April): actual 10.30%; previous 20.40%;
  5. Car registrations (m/m) (April): actual -18.90%; previous 34.60%;
  6. CPI (y/y) (May) P: actual 3.1%; previous 3.2%;
  7. CPI (month-on-month) (May) P: actual -0.3%; previous 0.6%;


Eurozone

  1. Consumer inflation expectations (May): actual 40.5; previous 48.8;
  2. Business and consumer survey (May): actual 93.5; forecast 92.8; previous 93.2;
  3. Consumer confidence index (May): actual -19.0; forecast -19.0; previous -20.8;
  4. Selling price expectations (May): reading 27.4; previous 30.2;
  5. Business sentiment index (May): reading -0.28; previous -0.27;
  6. Services sentiment index (May): reading 2.2; forecast 0.2; previous 1.4;


Germany

  1. Unemployment rate in Germany (May): actual 6.3%; forecast 6.4%; previous 6.4%;
  2. Change in unemployment in Germany (May): actual -12K; forecast 11K; previous 19K;
  3. CPI in Germany (m/m) (May) P: actual -0.2%; forecast 0.1%; previous 0.6%;
  4. CPI in Germany (y/y) (May) P: actual 2.6%; forecast 2.9%; previous 2.9%;
  5. HICP in Germany (m/m) (May) Actual: -0.1%; forecast: 0.2%; previous: 0.5%;
  6. HICP in Germany (y/y) (May) Actual: 2.7%; forecast: 2.8%; previous: 2.9%;


France

  1. France GDP (quarter-on-quarter) (Q1): actual -0.1%; forecast 0.0%; previous 0.2%;
  2. France GDP (year-on-year) (Q1): actual 0.9%; forecast 1.1%; previous 1.3%;
  3. France CPI (y/y) (May) Actual: 2.4%; forecast: 2.5%; previous: 2.2%;
  4. France HICP (y/y) (May) Actual: 2.8%; forecast: 2.9%; previous: 2.5%;
  5. Consumer confidence index in France (May): actual 82; forecast 83; previous 84;
  6. CPI in France (m/m) (May) Actual: 0.1%; forecast 0.2%; previous 1.0%;


United Kingdom

  1. BRC Shop Price Index (y/y): actual 1.2%; forecast 1.1%; previous 1.0%;
  2. CBI Retail Survey (May): actual -48; forecast -52; previous -68;


USA

  1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (May): actual 93.1; forecast 91.9; previous 93.8;
  2. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (MoM) (April): actual 0.2%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.3%;
  3. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index (y/y) (April): actual 3.3%; forecast 3.3%; previous 3.2%;
  4. GDP (q/q) (Q1): actual 1.6%; forecast 2.0%; previous 0.5%;
  5. Initial jobless claims: actual 215K; forecast 211K; previous 210K;
  6. Continuing jobless claims: actual 1788K; forecast 1780K; previous 1771K;
  7. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Q1): actual 4.5%; forecast 4.5%; previous 2.9%;
  8. New home sales (April): actual 622K; forecast 681K; previous 663K;
  9. Chicago PMI (May): actual 52.7; forecast 50.8; previous 49.2;
  10. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) (YoY) (April): actual 3.8%; forecast 3.8%; previous 3.5%;


China

  1. Industrial profit in China, YTD (April): actual 18.2%; previous 15.5%;


Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.14%. The euro traded between 4.2250 and 4.2425. 

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Meanwhile, the dollar (USD) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.43%. The dollar traded between 3.6182 and 3.6577.  

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Oil and gold markets

The price of Brent crude fell by as much as 11.98%. The price fluctuated between 90.15 and 99.41 USD per barrel.  

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Gold, on the other hand, rose by 1.35%. The price of gold fluctuated between 4,400.20 and 4,624.12 USD/ounce.  

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Stock Exchange

The WIG index rose by 1.39%. The WIG index fluctuated between 135,675 and 138,164. 

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Key events from the past week

US-Iran peace agreement: Negotiators from the US and Iran have reached an agreement on the framework for a deal to end the conflict, including, amongst other things, a 60-day extension of the ceasefire. Key conditions include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the removal of mines by Iran within thirty days, and the proportional lifting of the US naval blockade. Talks on the nuclear programme are set to begin at a later stage. The agreement, which is still awaiting Donald Trump’s final signature, has sparked optimism in the markets. It has eased concerns over oil supply, pushing Brent crude prices down to around $90 a barrel.


Fall in inflation in Poland: May consumer price inflation (CPI) in Poland unexpectedly fell to 3.1% year-on-year – contrary to market forecasts, which had predicted a rise to 3.7%. The main reason for this surprise was the sharpest May fall in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices in the 21st century (down 1% month-on-month). Fuel prices and core inflation also came in below expectations. This reading significantly eases the Monetary Policy Council’s position, easing pressure for interest rate hikes and supporting a wait-and-see approach.


Poland–UK Bilateral Pact: Poland and the UK signed a historic defence cooperation treaty at Northolt Air Base. The most important point of the agreement is the commitment by both countries to provide rapid mutual military assistance in the event of an armed attack. This is intended to allow for a response even before NATO procedures are initiated. The pact also covers 14 joint projects, including the production of a new generation of air defence missiles (in cooperation with MBDA), the establishment of a task force to counter hostile drones, and close cooperation on cybersecurity.


AI drives Wall Street: The bull market on Wall Street is being driven by the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), which has prompted the largest financial institutions to raise their forecasts for the S&P 500 index. It is estimated that corporate profits will rise by 24% this year, though these forecasts rest on very shaky ground. More than half of this growth is expected to come from AI infrastructure providers such as Nvidia, Micron and Broadcom. Although this technology remains the main driver of stock market gains, it also poses a significant source of risk if market expectations prove to be too high.


Events worth watching this week

Outlook for the zloty: On Monday, 1 June, we will see the manufacturing PMI and the final figures for Poland’s GDP growth. Tuesday’s Monetary Policy Council decision on interest rates will be crucial for the zloty. Thursday is a public holiday (Corpus Christi), whilst on Friday, 5 June, the National Bank of Poland will publish data on the level of official foreign exchange reserves.


Outlook for the euro: The single currency’s exchange rate will react on Monday, 1 June, to the PMI reading, and on Tuesday to the preliminary CPI inflation data for the Eurozone. On Thursday, 4 June, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak, and the markets will also see the retail sales figures. The week will conclude with Friday’s releases on Eurozone GDP.


Outlook for the dollar: The dollar will be influenced by the ISM manufacturing index, which will be released on Monday, 1 June. On Wednesday, 3 June, the ADP employment report and the Fed’s Beige Book will be published. The week will culminate with key US labour market data (including non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate), which will be released on Friday, 5 June.


Outlook for the pound: Sterling’s exchange rate will be influenced by Monday’s release of the manufacturing PMI. Investors will also be watching closely for speeches by the Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), scheduled for Tuesday 2 June and Thursday 4 June. On the same day, the construction PMI will be published, and on Friday 5 June, the Halifax house price index will be released.


TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ

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