16 March 2026

Market Summary by AFORTI: Release of oil reserves, revised expectations regarding the Fed, a new chapter in the US trade war

Last week, the key developments were the escalation of the armed conflict in Iran, the IEA’s emergency release of 400 million barrels of oil, and a radical revision of market expectations regarding the scale of interest rate cuts in the US. In the asset markets, the price of Brent crude and the Bitcoin exchange rate recorded sharp rises, whilst gold and the WIG index recorded falls; at the same time, the zloty depreciated significantly against the dollar and the euro amid market panic and the cancellation of the Polish bond swap auction. In the coming week, investors’ attention will focus on monetary policy decisions by the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England, as well as on inflation readings from Poland and the Eurozone, which will shape market volatility amid growing geopolitical uncertainty.

Economic indicators

Poland

  1. CPI (y/y) (February): actual 2.1%; forecast 2.2%; previous 2.4%;
  2. CPI (m/m) (February): actual 0.3%; forecast 0.6%; previous 0.0%;
  3. Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI Index (March): actual 49.01; forecast not available; previous 49.74;

Eurozone

  1. Industrial production (m/m) (January): actual -1.5%; forecast 0.6%; previous -0.6%;
  2. Industrial production (y/y) (January): actual -1.2%; forecast 1.4%; previous 2.2%;
  3. CFTC: Net speculative positions in EUR: actual 105.1K; forecast none; previous 136.5K;
  4. Sentix investor sentiment (March): actual -3.1; forecast -3.1; previous 4.2;

Germany

  1. German CPI (m/m) (February): actual 0.2%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.1%;
  2. Germany CPI (y/y) (February): actual 1.9%; forecast 1.9%; previous 2.1%;
  3. Germany HICP (y/y) (February): actual 2.0%; forecast 2.0%; previous 2.1%;
  4. HICP in Germany (m/m) (February): actual 0.4%; forecast 0.4%; previous -0.1%;
  5. Current account balance in Germany, seasonally adjusted (January): actual 17.1B; forecast not available; previous 17.4B;
  6. Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI index in Germany (March): actual 44.73; forecast not available; previous 47.07;

France

  1. CPI in France (m/m) (February): actual 0.6%; forecast 0.7%; previous -0.4%;
  2. HICP in France (m/m) (February): actual 0.7%; forecast 0.4%; previous -0.4%;
  3. CPI (m/m) (February): actual 0.60%; no forecast; previous 0.70%;
  4. CPI (y/y) (February): actual 0.90%; forecast not available; previous 1.00%;
  5. HICP in France (y/y) (February): actual 1.1%; forecast 1.1%; previous 0.4%;
  6. Inflation (y/y) (February): actual 0.90%; forecast: none; previous 0.30%;

United Kingdom

  1. GDP (m/m) (January): actual 0.0%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.1%;
  2. Factory output (m/m) (January): actual 0.1%; forecast 0.2%; previous -0.5%;
  3. Industrial production (mo/mo) (January): actual -0.1%; forecast 0.3%; previous -0.9%;
  4. GDP (q/q) (Q4): actual 0.2%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.1%;
  5. Trade balance (January): actual -14.45B; forecast -22.20B; previous -22.72B;
  6. NIESR monthly GDP tracker (February): actual 0.3%; no forecast; previous 0.2%;

USA

  1. GDP (quarter-on-quarter) (Q4): actual 0.7%; forecast 1.4%; previous 4.4%;
  2. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index (year-on-year) (January): actual 3.1%; forecast 3.1%; previous 3.0%;
  3. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index (Q4): actual 2.70%; forecast 2.70%; previous 2.90%;
  4. GDP deflator (mo/mo) (Q4): actual 3.8%; forecast 3.7%; previous 3.7%;
  5. Durable goods orders (month-on-month) (January): actual 0.0%; forecast 1.1%; previous -0.9%;
  6. Core durable goods orders (month-on-month) (January): actual 0.4%; forecast 0.5%; previous 1.3%;
  7. Crude oil inventories: actual 3.824M; forecast 2.800M; previous 3.475M;
  8. Initial jobless claims: actual 213K; forecast 214K; previous 214K;
  9. Housing starts (January): actual 1.487M; forecast 1.340M; previous 1.387M;
  10. Claims for unemployment benefits: actual 1,850K; forecast 1,850K; previous 1,871K;

China

  1. New loans (February): actual 900.0B; forecast 865.0B; previous 4,710.0B;
  2. PPI (y/y) (February): actual -0.9%; forecast -1.1%; previous -1.4%;
  3. CPI (y/y) (February): actual 1.3%; forecast 0.9%; previous 0.2%;
  4. Import balance (y/y) (February): actual 19.8%; forecast 6.3%; previous 5.7%;
  5. Trade balance (USD) (February): actual 213.62B; forecast 177.40B; previous 114.11B;
  6. Exports (y/y) (February): actual 21.8%; forecast 7.1%; previous 6.6%;


Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.65%. The euro traded in the range of 4.2430 – 4.3055. 

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Similarly, the dollar (USD) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 1.97%. The dollar’s price fluctuated between 3.6406 and 3.7517. 

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Oil and gold markets

The price of Brent crude rose by 11.62%. The price fluctuated between 82.42 and 119.28 USD per barrel.  


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Gold, however, fell by 2.27%. The price of gold fluctuated between 5,017.26 and 5,245.86 USD/ounce.  

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Stock Exchange

The WIG index fell by 0.19%. The WIG index fluctuated between 117,900 and 123,541. 

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Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 7.31% and fluctuated between 248,843 and 271,735.

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Key events from the past week

Release of oil reserves: The escalation of the armed conflict involving Israel, the US and Iran, coupled with the blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, has led to an unprecedented supply shock, driving the price of Brent crude to around $120 per barrel. In response to the critical threat to the stability of the global economy, member states of the International Energy Agency (IEA) took the historic decision to urgently release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. This large-scale intervention aims to quell market panic and avert a deep energy crisis that is directly impacting the profitability of the global industrial sector.


Revision of expectations regarding Fed policy: The sharp rise in energy commodity prices has forced financial markets to radically revise their scenarios regarding monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve. Investors are currently pricing in interest rate cuts of just 20 basis points this year, whereas a month ago cuts of 50 basis points were expected. Mounting inflationary pressure, driven by high oil prices, has prompted leading financial institutions (including Goldman Sachs) to push back the forecast date of the first cut from June to September.


A new chapter in the US trade war: Faced with the Supreme Court’s overturning of punitive tariffs, Donald Trump’s administration has initiated a new phase of the protectionist trade war, basing it on more durable legal foundations. The White House has launched formal investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act, covering 60 economies (including the EU and China). The official reason for the restrictions is to investigate practices related to forced labour. This updated strategy is intended to enable the seamless renewal of the US tariff regime before the current provisional rates expire in July.


Europe’s shift towards nuclear energy: Faced with a drastic rise in energy costs, key European Union decision-makers have officially recognised the previous marginalisation of nuclear energy as a critical strategic error. Seeking to reduce its dependence on fossil fuel imports from politically unstable regions, the EU is redefining its energy mix, basing it on the synergy between renewables and nuclear power. This fundamental shift signifies strong systemic support for the nuclear sector on the continent and paves the way for the commercial deployment of small modular reactor (SMR) technology.


Cancellation of Polish bond auction: Panic in the Middle East triggered a sell-off of Polish bonds, forcing the Treasury to cancel the exchange auction scheduled for 11 March. Yields on 10-year bonds have breached the 5.9% mark, representing a sharp rise compared to the end of February. The Ministry of Finance is, however, playing down the situation, pointing out that a liquidity buffer exceeding PLN 160 billion allows for flexible debt management without having to succumb to current market pressure.


Events worth watching this week

Outlook for the zloty: The Polish zloty will remain under the influence of strong risk aversion, fuelled by the escalation of the conflict in Iran and the threat of an oil shock. On the domestic macroeconomic calendar, investors will focus on the release of the core inflation figure, due on Monday, 16 March. Thursday’s corporate sector data, including industrial production figures and wage and employment growth, will also be key to the zloty’s valuation.


Outlook for the euro: The single currency will be highly sensitive to reports from the Middle East, where the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is destabilising global commodity markets. The highlight of the week for the euro will be Thursday’s decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) and its statement on further monetary policy measures. Ahead of that, the market will gauge economic sentiment via the ZEW index for Germany (Tuesday) and the final CPI inflation readings for the Eurozone (Wednesday).


Outlook for the dollar: The dollar is reinforcing its status as a ‘safe haven’ in the face of direct US military involvement in Iran, which is generating heightened volatility in USD-denominated currency pairs. The absolutely key event will be Wednesday’s FOMC decision on interest rates, which will be accompanied by the publication of the Fed’s new macroeconomic projections. The economic picture will be rounded off by Wednesday’s PPI producer price inflation readings and Thursday’s data on jobless claims.


Outlook for the pound: The pound’s trading will fluctuate in line with global geopolitical shocks, reacting to a panic-driven flight of capital towards the safest assets. On Thursday, 19 March, market attention will focus on the Bank of England’s (BoE) decision and key data from the UK labour market, including the unemployment rate and wage growth. Such a packed calendar of releases, against the backdrop of the war in Iran, could trigger sharp fluctuations in the sterling exchange rate.


TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ

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