Market Summary by AFORTI: Peace plan for Ukraine, US employment growth, improvement in consumer sentiment in Poland

2025-11-24

Last week, reports of secret peace negotiations on Ukraine and surprisingly strong US labour market data were key factors, coinciding with an improvement in consumer sentiment in Poland. In the asset markets, the WIG Index and the price of Bitcoin recorded significant declines, while foreign currencies such as the US dollar and the euro strengthened against the zloty. In the coming week, investors' attention will focus on the publication of the unemployment rate in Poland and the EU's decision on the National Recovery Plan, as well as PMI readings from major economies and inflation in the UK, which will provide guidance for future monetary policy decisions.

Economic indicators

Poland

1. Core CPI (y/y) (October): value 3.0%; forecast 3.0%; previous 3.2%.

Eurozone

1. Core CPI (y/y) (October): actual 2.4%; forecast 2.4%; previous 2.4%.

2. CPI (y/y) (October): actual 2.1%; forecast 2.1%; previous 2.2%.

3. CPI (m/m) (October): actual 0.2%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.1%.

4. HICP excluding energy and food (y/y) (October): actual 2.4%; forecast 2.4%; previous 2.4%.

5. HICP index, excluding energy and food (m/m) (October): value 0.2%; forecast 0.2%; previously 0.1%.

Germany

1. Germany Composite PMI (November): actual 52.1; forecast 53.7; previous 53.9%.

2. Germany Manufacturing PMI (November): actual 48.4; forecast 49.8; previous 49.6%.

3. PMI index for services in Germany (November): value 52.7; forecast 54.0; previously 54.6%.

France

1. PMI index for industry in France (November): value 47.8; forecast 49.0; previously 48.8.

2. PMI index for services in France (November): value 50.8; forecast 48.4; previously 48.0.

United Kingdom

1. Core retail sales (m/m) (October): value -1.0%; forecast -0.2%; previously 0.7%.

2. CPI (y/y) (October): value 3.6%; forecast 3.5%; previously 3.8%.

3. Core retail sales (y/y) (October): value 1.2%; forecast 2.5%; previously 1.7%.

4. Retail sales (m/m) (October): value -1.1%; forecast -0.1%; previously 0.7%.

5. Retail sales (y/y) (October): value 0.2%; forecast 1.5%; previously 1.0%.

6. Producer price index (PPI Input) (m/m) (October): value -0.3%; forecast 0.0%; previous -0.1%.

USA

1. Initial jobless claims (Thursday, 20 November): actual 224K; forecast 223K; previous 219K.

2. Non-farm payrolls (September): actual 119K; forecast 53K; previous -4K.

3. Unemployment rate (September): value 4.4%; forecast 4.3%; previously 4.3%.

4. Trade balance (August): value -59.60B; forecast -61.30B; previously -78.20B.

5. Exports (August): value 280.80B; previous 280.50B.

6. Imports (August): value 340.40B; previous 358.80B.

7. Crude oil inventories in Cushing: value -0.698M; previously -0.346M.

8. TIC net long-term transactions (September): value 179.8B; previously 134.2B.

9. Total net capital flows (September): value 190.10B; previously 187.10B.

10. 20-year bond auction: value 4.706%; previously 4.506%.

China

1. PBoC base lending rate (November): value 3.50%; forecast 3.50%; previously 3.50%.

2. PBoC base lending rate: value 3.00%; forecast 3.00%; previously 3.00%.

Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the Polish zloty (PLN), ultimately by 0.11%. The price of the euro fluctuated between 4.2232 and 4.2517.

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Similarly, the dollar (USD) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.96%. The price of the dollar fluctuated between 3.6496 and 3.6971.

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Stock Exchange

The WIG index fell by 2.46%. The price of the WIG index fluctuated between 107,839 and 111,355.

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Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 5.93%. The price of Bitcoin fluctuated between PLN 300,000 and PLN 351,928.

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Important events of the past week

Peace plan for Ukraine: Washington and Moscow secretly negotiated a 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine, completely bypassing Kyiv and Europe. The terms of the plan were extremely unfavourable, assuming, among other things, a reduction of the Ukrainian army by half and the surrender of the entire Donbas region to Russia. President Zelensky, preparing the nation for ‘one of the most difficult moments in our history,’ signalled strong pressure on his administration. Preliminary information about the new peace plan likely contributed to the zloty's strengthening on Wednesday, although this gain was later offset.

Strong employment growth in the US and correction on Wall Street: The delayed September US labour market report showed that non-farm employment rose by 119,000, significantly exceeding the expected consensus. At the same time, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, reaching its highest level in about four years. Wall Street saw the long-awaited correction, culminating in Thursday's reversal on the S&P 500 index, which ended the session down 1.6%. Currency impact: Stronger-than-expected employment data benefited the US dollar (USD), reducing the chances of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December.

Improvement in consumer sentiment in Poland: The latest survey by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) from November 2025 indicated a shift in Polish consumers' expectations towards lower inflation. The consumer confidence index (BWUK) rose to -9.9 from -10.9 in October, indicating an overall improvement in sentiment regarding the current economic situation. In particular, assessments of the ability to make major purchases and the future financial situation of households improved. This increase in confidence may support consumer demand in Poland in the short and medium term.

Drastic declines in cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin is heading for its weakest month since the collapse of FTX in 2022, losing about a quarter of its value in a month. On Friday, the Bitcoin price fell temporarily by more than 6%, dropping to around USD 81,600. US Bitcoin-based ETFs recorded outflows of $903 million on Thursday, the second-largest single-day outflow since their debut. At the same time, open positions in futures contracts fell by more than a third from their October peak, signalling a reduction in leverage in the market.

Events to watch this week

Outlook for the zloty: The key macroeconomic indicator that markets will be watching is the publication of Poland's registered unemployment rate, scheduled for Thursday, 27 November. The expected decision of the Council of the European Union (EU) on the revision of the National Recovery Plan (KPO), following a positive assessment by the European Commission (EC), will have an equally significant impact on sentiment around the zloty. Positive labour market data and the prospect of EU funds being released may have a supportive and stabilising effect on the Polish zloty (PLN) exchange rate.

Outlook for the euro: The euro (EUR) exchange rate may be affected by the potential confirmation by the Council of the European Union (EU) of a positive assessment of the Polish NRP, which is important for the financial stability of the region and market sentiment. Key to assessing the economic health of the eurozone will be the PMI indices for industry and services from key economies, which are scheduled for release on Friday, 28 November. The broader sentiment around the euro is shaped by the European Central Bank (ECB) forecast, which assumes GDP growth in the zone for 2025 to reach 1.4%, which forms the basis for inflation expectations and monetary policy.

Outlook for the dollar: The dollar (USD) exchange rate will be shaped by data on US economic activity, primarily the core retail sales index, published on Tuesday, 25 November, which is key to assessing consumer strength. Then, on Friday, 28 November, investors will see important PMI indicators for industry and services, which measure the health of these sectors. The hawkish sentiment of the Federal Reserve (Fed), maintained after strong employment data, is expected to continue to support the USD, as it reduces the prospects for a rapid interest rate cut.

Outlook for the pound: The key factor for the pound sterling (GBP) this week will be the inflation reading; on Tuesday, 25 November, the consumer price index (CPI) and retail price index (RPI) will be published. Then, on Wednesday, 26 November, important PMI indicators for industry will be published, which measure the health of the British manufacturing sector. High inflation and strong activity readings will have a direct impact on the pricing of future Bank of England (BOE) decisions and will determine expectations for maintaining a hawkish monetary policy stance.

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