Market Summary by AFORTI: Interest rate cuts in the US, China's growing independence in the technology market, the new BRICS currency, conflict at the NBP
Last week, the key events were the interest rate cut in the US and the launch of the BRICS currency pilot programme, which coincided with the escalation of the conflict within the management board of the National Bank of Poland. On the asset markets, the WIG index and gold recorded gains, while oil and Bitcoin lost value, and the zloty strengthened against the euro and the dollar. In the coming week, investors' attention will focus on inflation readings in Poland and the ECB and Bank of England's interest rate decisions.
Economic indicators
Poland
1. Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI index m/m (December): value: 48.37; previous: 48.03;
Eurozone
1. Sentix investor sentiment (December): value: -6.2; forecast: -6.2; previous: -7.4;
Germany
1. Industrial production m/m (October): value: 1.8%; forecast: 0.2%; previous: 1.1%;
2. Trade balance (October): value: 16.9B; forecast: 15.9B; previous: 15.3B;
3. CPI y/y (November): value: 2.3%; forecast: 2.3%; previous: 2.3%;
4. HICP y/y (November): value: 2.6%; forecast: 2.6%; previous: 2.3%;
5. CPI m/m (November): value: -0.2%; forecast: -0.2%; previous: 0.3%;
6. HICP m/m (November): value: -0.5%; forecast: -0.5%; previous: 0.3%;
France
1. Inflation y/y (November): value: 0.90%; previous: 0.90%;
2. CPI y/y (November): value: 0.9%; forecast: 0.9%; previous: 0.9%;
3. HICP y/y (November): value: 0.8%; forecast: 0.8%; previous: 0.8%;
4. CPI m/m (November): value: -0.20%; forecast: -0.10%; previous: 0.10%;
5. HICP m/m (November): value: -0.2%; forecast: -0.2%; previous: 0.1%;
United Kingdom
1. GDP m/m (October): value: -0.1%; forecast: 0.1%; previous: -0.1%;
2. GDP y/y (October): value: 1.1%; forecast: 1.4%; previous: 1.1%;
3. Industrial production m/m (October): value: 1.1%; forecast: 0.9%; previous: -2.0%;
4. Trade balance (October): value: -22.54B; forecast: -19.10B; previous: -18.88B;
5. Factory goods production m/m (October): value: 0.5%; forecast: 1.1%; previous: -1.7%;
6. BRC retail sales index y/y (November): value: 1.2%; forecast: 2.6%; previous: 1.5%;
USA
1. Interest rate decision: value: 3.75%; forecast: 3.75%; previous: 4.00%;
2. JOLTS job openings and labour turnover survey (October): value: 7.670M; previous: 7.658M;
3. Initial jobless claims: actual: 236K; forecast: 220K; previous: 192K;
4. Crude oil inventories: actual: -1.812M; forecast: -1.200M; previous: 0.574M;
5. Gasoline inventories: actual: 6.397M; forecast: 2.800M; previous: 4.518M;
6. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (November): actual: 99.0; forecast: 98.4; previous: 98.2;
7. Consumer inflation expectations (November): value: 3.2%; previous: 3.2%;
8. Trade balance (September): value: -52.80B; forecast: -62.50B; previous: -59.30B;
9. MBA mortgage applications m/m: value: 4.8%; previous: -1.4%;
10. Exports (September): value: 289.30B; previous: 280.80B;
China
1. Trade balance USD (November): value: 111.68B; forecast: 105.00B; previous: 90.07B;
2. Exports y/y (November): value: 5.9%; forecast: 3.8%; previous: -1.1%;
3. Import balance y/y (November): value: 1.9%; forecast: 2.8%; previous: 1.0%;
4. CPI y/y (November): value: -0.1%; forecast: 0.2%; previous: 0.2%;
5. PPI y/y (November): value: -2.2%; forecast: -2.0%; previous: -2.1%;
6. New loans (November): value: 390.0B; previous: 220.0B;
Currency market
This week, the euro (EUR) weakened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 0.13%. The price of the euro fluctuated between 4.2223 and 4.2397.
Similarly, the US dollar (USD) weakened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 0.95%. The price of the dollar fluctuated between 3.5913 and 3.6489.
Oil and gold market
The price of BRENT crude oil fell by 4.03%. The price fluctuated between USD 60.83 and USD 63.92 per barrel.
Gold, on the other hand, rose by 2.43%. The price of gold fluctuated between USD 4,200.00 and USD 4,379.75 per ounce.
Stock exchange
The WIG index rose by 3.47%. The price of the WIG index fluctuated between 109,802 and 114,452.
Cryptocurrencies
After initial increases, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) returned to the levels seen at the beginning of the week. The price of Bitcoin fluctuated between PLN 320,431 and PLN 342,600.
Important events of the past week
Interest rate cut in the US: On Wednesday, 10 December, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut interest rates in the US from 4.00% to 3.75%. This move is intended to stimulate the economy in the face of signs of a possible weakening of the labour market. The decision was made in the shadow of data on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits, which rose to 236,000, exceeding analysts' expectations. This gave the Federal Reserve room to loosen its monetary policy. In response to these events, the dollar weakened: the EUR/USD exchange rate rose above 1.17, while the USD/PLN exchange rate fell to around 3.60.
China's growing independence in the technology market: Despite US tariffs, Chinese exports rose by nearly 6% in November, thanks to a massive redirection of goods to European and Asian markets. At the same time, Beijing introduced an administrative ban on the use of Nvidia chips, forcing companies to use domestic equivalents. This decision has dramatically increased the revenues of local manufacturers such as Cambricon and strengthened Huawei's position. These actions expose the ineffectiveness of US technological isolation, becoming a catalyst for Chinese independence in the semiconductor sector.
BRICS currency pilot programme: On 8 December 2025, the BRICS group launched a pilot programme for a digital currency called ‘The Unit’. Its value is based 40% on gold and 60% on a basket of member states' currencies. This system, which uses blockchain technology, aims to bypass the SWIFT infrastructure and create a sanctions-resistant trade channel independent of US banks. The initiative is a response to the dominance of the dollar and coincided with a record increase in public concerns about the devaluation of the US currency.
Conflict at the NBP: An open conflict is brewing at the National Bank of Poland. Members of the management board are demanding that the powers of President Glapiński be curtailed, to which he has responded by removing their oversight of key departments. The dispute is seen as a battle for control of the institution ahead of the expiry of the terms of key board members in 2026. Experts warn that the public escalation of internal disputes is damaging the image of the central bank and threatens to weaken the zloty, which remains sensitive to institutional shocks.
Events worth watching this week
Outlook for the zloty: The zloty's performance will depend on key inflation data: the CPI (Monday, 15 December) and, more importantly for the markets, core inflation (Tuesday, 16 December). In the second half of the week (Thursday, 18 December), investors will learn about data from the real economy: industrial production, PPI and wage growth in the enterprise sector. Uncertainty surrounding domestic assets, exacerbated by the conflict within the NBP's management board, remains a risk factor.
Outlook for the euro: The key event for the euro will be the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates, which will be announced on Thursday (18 December). Earlier, volatility may be triggered by preliminary PMI readings for industry and services from France and Germany (Tuesday, 16 December) and the final CPI inflation reading (Wednesday, 17 December). The market's attention will also be drawn to German economic sentiment indices: ZEW (Tuesday) and Ifo (Wednesday).
Outlook for the dollar: The dollar will be influenced by a series of macroeconomic data. On Tuesday (16 December), reports on retail sales, the unemployment rate and preliminary PMI indicators for services and industry will be published. On Thursday (18 December), the picture of the economic condition will be completed by the CPI inflation reading and weekly data on unemployment benefit claims.
Outlook for the pound: The pound will react primarily to Thursday's Bank of England interest rate decision (18 December). Earlier publications will also be important for shaping market expectations: labour market data (Tuesday, 16 December) and CPI and PPI indices (Wednesday, 17 December). The week will close with Friday's retail sales data (19 December), reflecting consumer sentiment.
TREASURY DEPARTMENT
AFORTI.BIZ