9 March 2026

Market Summary by AFORTI: Escalation of the war in Iran, interest rate cuts, raw materials crisis

Last week, the key events were the unexpected cut in interest rates in Poland to 3.75%, as well as the drastic escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, tensions within NATO and the paralysis of Qatari LNG supplies to Europe. Global markets saw a sharp rise in oil prices of over 27% amid fears of a major energy crisis, accompanied by a sharp decline in the WIG index and a strengthening of the dollar against the zloty. In the coming week, investors' attention will focus on key CPI inflation readings from Poland, Germany and the US, as well as Friday's UK GDP data, which will shape market expectations in an era of growing geopolitical uncertainty.

Economic indicators

Poland

  1. PMI index for industry (February): value 47.10; forecast 49.20; previously 48.80;
  2. GDP (y/y) (Q4): value 4.0%; forecast 4.0%; previously 3.8%;
  3. GDP (q/q) (Q4): value 1.0%; forecast 1.0%; previous 0.9%;
  4. Interest rate decision (March): value 3.75%; forecast 3.75%; previous 4.00%;
  5. Foreign exchange reserves (EUR) (February): value 259.24B; forecast none; previously 246.76B;

Eurozone

  1. CPI (y/y) (February): value 1.9%; forecast 1.7%; previously 1.7%;
  2. Core CPI (y/y) (February): value 2.4%; forecast 2.2%; previous 2.2%;
  3. PPI (y/y) (January): value -2.1%; forecast -2.7%; previous -2.0%;
  4. Retail sales (y/y) (January): actual 2.0%; forecast 1.7%; previous 1.8%;
  5. GDP (q/q) (Q4): actual 0.2%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.3%;
  6. GDP (y/y) (Q4): value 1.2%; forecast 1.3%; previously 1.4%;

Germany

  1. Retail sales in Germany (m/m) (January): value -0.9%; forecast 0.0%; previously 1.2%;
  2. Retail sales in Germany (y/y) (January): value 1.2%; forecast none; previously 4.3%;
  3. PMI index for industry in Germany (February): value 50.9; forecast 50.7; previously 49.1;
  4. PMI index for services in Germany (February): value 53.5; forecast 53.4; previously 53.4;
  5. Car registrations in Germany (y/y) (February): value 3.8%; forecast none; previously -6.6%;

France

  1. PMI index for industry in France (February): value 50.1; forecast 49.9; previous 51.2;
  2. Government budget balance in France (January): value -9.7B; forecast none; previous -124.7B;
  3. PMI index for services in France (February): value 49.6; forecast 49.6; previously 49.6;
  4. Industrial production in France (m/m) (January): value 0.5%; forecast 0.4%; previously 0.5%;
  5. Total reserve assets in France (February): value 421,573.0M; forecast none; previous 409,263.0M;

United Kingdom

  1. PMI index for industry (February): value 51.7; forecast 52.0; previous 52.0;
  2. PMI for services (February): value 53.9; forecast 53.9; previously 53.9;
  3. PMI for the construction sector (February): value 44.5; forecast 47.0; previously 46.4;
  4. Halifax house price index (m/m) (February): actual 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.8%;
  5. Halifax house price index (y/y) (February): actual 1.3%; forecast 0.9%; previous 1.1%;
  6. Mortgage lending (January): actual 4.08B; forecast none; previous 4.49B;

USA

  1. PMI manufacturing index (February): actual 51.6; forecast 51.2; previous 51.2;
  2. ISM manufacturing index (February): actual 52.4; forecast 51.7; previous 52.6;
  3. ADP non-farm employment change (February): actual 63K; forecast 50K; previous 11K;
  4. ISM Services Index (February): actual 56.1; forecast 53.5; previous 53.8;
  5. Crude oil inventories: actual 3.475M; forecast 3.000M; previous 15.989M;
  6. Initial jobless claims: actual 1868K; forecast 1850K; previous 1822K;
  7. Non-farm payrolls (February): actual -92K; forecast 58K; previous 126K;
  8. Unemployment rate (February): actual 4.4%; forecast 4.3%; previous 4.3%;
  9. Average hourly earnings (m/m) (February): actual 0.4%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.4%;
  10. Private sector employment excluding agriculture (February): value -86K; forecast 65K; previous 146K;

China

  1. PMI index for industry (February): value 49.0; forecast 49.1; previous 49.3;
  2. China Composite PMI (February): value 49.5; forecast none; previous 49.8;
  3. PMI for services (February): value 49.5; forecast 49.8; previous 49.4;
  4. Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (February): actual 52.1; forecast 50.1; previous 50.3;
  5. Caixin Services PMI (February): actual 56.7; forecast 52.3; previous 52.3;

Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 1.08%. The euro price fluctuated between 4.2141 and 4.23066. 

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Similarly, the dollar (USD) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 2.80%. The dollar price fluctuated between 3.5731 and 3.7327. 

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Oil and gold market

The price of Brent crude oil rose by 27.17% as a result of military action in the Middle East. The price fluctuated between 75.86 and 94.31 USD/barrel.  

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Gold, on the other hand, fell by 2.22% despite the escalation in the Middle East. The price of gold fluctuated between USD 5,029.21 and USD 5,433.26 per ounce.  

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Stock Exchange

The WIG index fell by 4.82%. The price of the WIG index fluctuated between 119,818 and 126,250. 

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Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 2.33% and fluctuated between PLN 235,245 and PLN 275,000.

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Important events of the past week

Escalation of the conflict in Iran: The conflict in the Middle East has rapidly expanded to include Lebanon, where Israeli forces have launched a ground operation, and Azerbaijan, following an Iranian drone attack on the airport in Nakhchivan. Despite the succession of power in Tehran and the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader, the Iranian president issued an unprecedented apology to the Gulf states, attributing the earlier shelling to internal communication errors. Geopolitical destabilisation is exacerbated by the tragic incident of the mistaken shooting down of American fighter jets by Kuwaiti forces and a critical rift within NATO caused by Donald Trump's imposition of an embargo on Spain in retaliation for its refusal to share military infrastructure.

Interest rate cut: Despite the growing geopolitical risk and the spectre of a return to global inflation, the Monetary Policy Council decided to cut interest rates for the first time this year. The NBP's main reference rate was unexpectedly lowered from 4.00% to 3.75%. President Adam Glapiński justified this decision by citing the lack of concerns about the domestic economy overheating and the optimistic results of the latest inflation projection.

Paralysis of Qatari LNG supplies: Iranian retaliatory strikes on facilities in Ras Laffan forced the giant QatarEnergy to declare force majeure and completely halt liquefied gas production. This decision caused panic on European stock exchanges, where blue fuel prices rose by several dozen per cent almost immediately. The crisis is hitting Poland directly – Orlen has already received official notification of a threat to spring LNG supplies to the gas port in Świnoujście.

Concessions on sanctions against Russia: The massive energy crisis has forced the West to revise the restrictions imposed on the Kremlin. The US administration has issued a temporary permit to Indian refineries for the wholesale purchase of Russian oil, which had previously been blocked at sea. In addition, Washington has extended indefinitely the exemption from sanctions for the German PCK refinery in Schwedt, which is controlled by Russian giant Rosneft.


Events worth watching this week

Outlook for the zloty: In the coming week, the zloty may come under strong pressure and be subject to increased volatility due to the ongoing escalation of the war in Iran, which is fuelling global concerns about an energy crisis and inflationary shock. In the macroeconomic calendar, the publication of the domestic CPI inflation index, scheduled for Friday, 13 March, will be key for the Polish currency. In addition, consumer sentiment in our country will be illustrated by the PCSI index (Thomson Reuters/Ipsos), which will be released on Thursday, 12 March.

Outlook for the euro: The single currency remains very sensitive to geopolitical turmoil surrounding the escalating conflict in Iran, where rapidly rising gas prices and logistical blockades are fuelling market uncertainty. From a macroeconomic perspective, the most important data for the euro will be the CPI and HICP inflation readings for Germany, scheduled for Wednesday, 11 March. The picture of the European economy will be completed by the publication of similar indicators for France, which the markets will learn on Friday, 13 March.

Outlook for the dollar: The US dollar is strengthening, gaining safe-haven status amid huge market volatility triggered by US military intervention in Iran. At the same time, investors' attention will focus on key US CPI (including core) inflation readings scheduled for Wednesday, 11 March. On Friday, 13 March, the University of Michigan's report on inflation expectations and the core PCE consumer spending index will have a significant impact on the dollar's valuation and further decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Outlook for the pound: The British pound may be subject to sudden fluctuations in the coming days due to concerns about logistics and the UK's direct involvement in military action in Cyprus and the Middle East. The market calendar for the British currency will open on Tuesday (10 March) with the publication of the BRC retail sales index. On Thursday, 12 March, investors will be closely watching the speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. However, the greatest volatility, driven by macroeconomic releases, will come on Friday, 13 March, when important data on UK GDP and industrial production will be released.


TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ

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