15 June 2026

Market Summary by AFORTI: ECB interest rate hike, high US inflation figures, ceasefire in Iran and SpaceX’s stock market debut

Last week, the markets were dominated by reports of an interest rate hike by the ECB, the conclusion of a ceasefire in the Middle East, and accelerating consumer inflation in the US. The domestic WIG index recorded a marked rise, whilst Brent crude oil and gold prices fell significantly. The Polish zloty weakened slightly against the euro but strengthened against the US dollar. In the coming week, investors’ attention will focus on the Fed’s interest rate decision, the Bank of England meeting, and key CPI inflation readings for Poland and the Eurozone.  

Economic indicators

Poland

  • Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI Index (June): reading 48.18; previous 48.20;
  • Current account balance (EUR) (April): reading -1,558M; previous -234M;


Eurozone

  • Deposit rate (June): actual 2.25%; forecast 2.25%; previous 2.00%;
  • Interest rate decision (June): actual 2.40%; forecast 2.40%; previous 2.15%;
  • ECB marginal lending rate: actual 2.65%; previous 2.40%;
  • Sentix investor sentiment (June): actual -13.4; forecast -13.8; previous -16.4;
  • CFTC: Net speculative positions in EUR: actual 13.9K; previous 48.9K;


Germany

  • German factory orders (m/m) (April): actual -3.8%; forecast -2.2%; previous 4.5%;
  • German industrial production (m/m) (April): actual 0.4%; forecast 0.4%; previous -0.1%;
  • German trade balance (April): actual 14.5B; forecast 15.4B; previous 14.7B;
  • Germany CPI (m/m) (May): actual -0.2%; forecast -0.2%; previous 0.6%;
  • Germany CPI (y/y) (May): actual 2.6%; forecast 2.6%; previous 2.9%;
  • Auction of 10-year German government bonds (Bund): actual 3.060%; previous 3.160%;


France

  • Auction of 12-month French government bonds (BTF): actual 2.687%; previous 2.588%;
  • Auction of 3-month French government bonds (BTF): yield 2.363%; previous 2.289%;
  • Auction of 6-month French government bonds (BTF): yield 2.507%; previously 2.440%;
  • CPI in France (m/m) (May): reading 0.1%; forecast 0.1%; previously 1.0%;
  • HICP in France (m/m) (May): actual 0.1%; forecast 0.1%; previous 1.2%;
  • HICP in France (y/y) (May): actual 2.8%; forecast 2.8%; previous 2.5%;


United Kingdom

  • GDP (m/m) (April): actual -0.1%; forecast -0.1%; previous 0.3%;
  • Factory output (m/m) (April): actual 0.4%; forecast -0.2%; previous 1.2%;
  • BRC Retail Sales Index (y/y) (May): actual 3.4%; forecast 0.8%; previous -3.4%;
  • GDP q/q (April): actual 0.7%; forecast 0.7%; previous 0.6%;
  • Trade balance (April): actual -$26.05bn; forecast -$22.50bn; previous -$27.22bn;
  • Industrial production (m/m) (April): actual 0.0%; forecast 0.1%; previous -0.2%;


USA

  • CPI (m/m) (May): actual 0.5%; forecast 0.5%; previous 0.6%;
  • Core CPI (m/m) (May): actual 0.2%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.4%;
  • CPI (y/y) (May): actual 4.2%; forecast 4.2%; previous 3.8%;
  • Core CPI (y/y) (May): actual 2.9%; forecast 2.9%; previous 2.8%;
  • Crude oil inventories: actual -7.227M; forecast -3.000M; previous -7.974M;
  • PPI (m/m) (May): actual 1.1%; forecast 0.7%; previous 1.1%;
  • Initial jobless claims: actual 229K; forecast 220K; previous 225K;
  • Core PPI (m/m) (May): actual 0.4%; forecast 0.5%; previous 0.7%;
  • Claims for unemployment benefits: actual 1,795K; forecast 1,780K; previous 1,771K;
  • Core PPI (y/y) (May): actual 4.9%; forecast 5.4%; previous 4.9%;


China

  • Trade balance (USD) (May): actual 105.43B; forecast 92.10B; previous 84.80B;
  • CPI (m/m) (May): actual -0.1%; forecast -0.2%; previous 0.3%;
  • CPI (y/y) (May): actual 1.2%; forecast 1.3%; previous 1.2%;
  • PPI (y/y) (May): actual 3.9%; forecast 3.9%; previous 2.8%;
  • Import balance (y/y) (May): actual 27.4%; forecast 25.0%; previous 25.3%;
  • Exports (y/y) (May): actual 19.4%; forecast 15.0%; previous 14.1%;


Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.09%. The euro traded between 4.2343 and 4.2655. 

AcgOQS5AJBiGEEEIIIYQQQoQDyw1ALkowCCGEEEIIIYQQoiMsNwC5KMEghBBCCCGEEEKIjrDcAOSiBIMQQgghhBBCCCE6wnIDkIsSDEIIIYQQQgghhOgIyw1ALkowCCGEEEIIIYQQoiMsNwC5KMEghBBCCCGEEEKIjrDcAOSiBIMQQgghhBBCCCE6wnIDkIsSDEIIIYQQQgghhOgIyw1ALkowCCGEEEIIIYQQoiMsNwC5KMEghBBCCCGEEEKIjrDcAOSiBIMQQgghhBBCCCE6wnIDkIsSDEIIIYQQQgghhOgIyw1ALkowCCGEEEIIIYQQoiMsNwC5KMEghBBCCCGEEEKIjrDcAOSiBIMQQgghhBBCCCE6wnIDkIsSDEIIIYQQQgghhOgIyw1ALYz5f5qu1QEBuQvLAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC


In contrast, the dollar (USD) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.52%. The dollar’s price fluctuated between 3.6594 and 3.7050.  

FoUWUrblTwQAAAAASUVORK5CYII=


Oil and gold markets

The price of Brent crude fell by 6.62%. The price fluctuated between 86.16 and 97.87 USD per barrel.  

hAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC


Similarly, gold fell by 2.60%. The price of gold fluctuated between 4,051.77 and 4,374.45 USD per ounce.  

P8B+5VjXTOjNWMAAAAASUVORK5CYII=


Stock Market

The WIG index rose by 2.99%. The WIG index fluctuated between 133,172 and 138,979. 

w95Del7Bh2V7AAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==


Key events from the past week

ECB interest rate hike: The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the deposit rate to 2.25% and the refinancing rate to 2.40%. This was the first rate hike since September 2023. The Governing Council’s unanimous decision is a direct response to rising inflationary pressures caused by a supply shock in the Middle Eastern oil market. The ECB has revised its inflation forecasts for 2026–2027 upwards and lowered its GDP growth expectations. Inflation is expected to return to target in the second half of 2027.


Resumption of hostilities and ceasefire in the Middle East: Israel and Iran have broken the truce, resuming direct military action. Israel carried out strikes on targets in Beirut and the Iranian Karun petrochemical plant, to which Tehran responded with missile strikes and a threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions were eased thanks to Donald Trump’s diplomatic intervention, which led to a ceasefire and the announcement of the conclusion of peace talks. Both sides officially confirmed the suspension of attacks. The prospect of de-escalation and the reopening of trade routes stabilised investor sentiment, resulting in a fall in oil prices.


US inflation reading: US consumer price inflation (CPI) accelerated in May to 4.2% y/y, reaching its highest level in three years. This rise was primarily due to fuel prices, which were up by over 40%. Producer price inflation (PPI) showed an even sharper increase, reaching 6.5% y/y. Commenting on these figures, Donald Trump stated that he “loves inflation”, viewing higher prices as a justified cost of blocking Iran’s nuclear programme. The current macroeconomic situation poses a significant obstacle to the Federal Reserve’s plans for monetary easing.


SpaceX’s stock market debut: SpaceX made its debut on the Nasdaq stock exchange, carrying out the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. The company offered shares at a price of $135, raising $75 billion in capital, which increased its market capitalisation to nearly $1.78 trillion. SpaceX thus became the sixth-largest company in the US. Demand significantly outstripped supply, driven by market optimism surrounding the development of artificial intelligence, Starlink satellite internet and reusable rocket technology. High investor interest persisted despite the significant quarterly losses reported by the company.


Events worth watching this week

Outlook for the zloty: On Monday, 15 June, the markets will see the latest consumer price index (CPI) readings for Poland. The next key item on the agenda will be Tuesday’s (16 June) publication of the core inflation rate. The macroeconomic calendar for this week will conclude with Friday’s (19 June) data on industrial production growth.


Outlook for the euro: The euro may react to speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Monday (15 June) and Wednesday (17 June). On Tuesday, 16 June, market attention will focus on the ZEW economic sentiment index readings for Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. Meanwhile, CPI inflation figures are scheduled for release on Wednesday.


Outlook for the dollar: The key event of the week will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday (17 June), which will be accompanied by the presentation of the latest economic forecasts. On Thursday, 18 June, investors will analyse the latest labour market data and the Philadelphia Fed index reading. On Friday, 19 June, US financial markets will be closed for a public holiday.


Outlook for the pound: Sterling will be influenced by the release of the CPI inflation figure scheduled for Wednesday, 17 June. However, the most important event for the British currency will be the Bank of England’s decision on monetary policy and interest rates on Thursday (18 June). The week will conclude with Friday’s (19 June) retail sales figures.


TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ

×Sorry. Your browser an unknown bot does not meet the minimum requirements of our platform. Please update your browser!