7 April 2026

Market Summary by AFORTI: Donald Trump’s ultimatum, the spectre of fuel rationing in Europe, the threat of the US leaving NATO, a financial penalty for Poland, a sharp rise in inflation

Last week, markets were preoccupied with the spectre of fuel rationing in Europe, the threat of the US leaving NATO, a multi-billion-euro fine for Poland for breaching its contract with Pfizer, and a sharp rise in inflation. Brent crude, gold and the WIG index gained ground, whilst Bitcoin lost value. The zloty strengthened against the euro and the dollar. In the coming week, investors’ attention will focus on the MPC’s domestic decision, European PMI and retail sales figures, the FOMC minutes and US inflation data, as well as the BoE survey from the UK.

Economic indicators

Poland

  1. CPI (y/y) (March) Actual: 3.0%; forecast: none; previous: 2.4%;
  2. CPI (m/m) (March) Actual: 1.0%; forecast: none; previous: 0.0%;
  3. Manufacturing PMI (March): actual 48.70; forecast 47.10; previous 47.10;


Eurozone

  1. CPI (y/y) (March) Actual: 2.5%; forecast 2.6%; previous 1.9%;
  2. Core CPI (y/y) (March) P: actual 2.3%; forecast 2.4%; previous 2.4%;
  3. Unemployment rate (February): actual 6.2%; forecast 6.1%; previous 6.1%;
  4. Manufacturing PMI (March): actual 51.6; forecast 51.4; previous 50.8;
  5. Business and consumer survey (March): actual 96.6; forecast 96.5; previous 98.2;
  6. Industrial sentiment index (March): actual -7.0; forecast -9.0; previous -7.2;


Germany

  1. CPI in Germany (m/m) (March) Actual: 1.1%; forecast 1.1%; previous 0.2%;
  2. German CPI (y/y) (March) Actual: 2.7%; forecast: 2.7%; previous: 1.9%;
  3. German unemployment rate (March): 6.3%; forecast: 6.3%; previous: 6.3%;
  4. Change in unemployment in Germany (March): actual 0K; forecast 2K; previous 1K;
  5. Germany Manufacturing PMI (March): actual 52.2; forecast 51.7; previous 50.9;
  6. HICP in Germany (y/y) (March) P: actual 2.8%; forecast 2.8%; previous 2.0%;


France

  1. Manufacturing PMI in France (March): actual 50.0; forecast 50.2; previous 50.2;
  2. CPI in France (m/m) (March) Actual: 0.9%; forecast: 0.9%; previous: 0.6%;
  3. CPI in France (y/y) (March) Actual: 1.7%; forecast: 1.6%; previous: 0.9%;
  4. HICP in France (y/y) (March) Actual: 1.9%; forecast: 1.9%; previous: 1.1%;
  5. Consumer spending in France (m/m) (February): actual: -1.4%; forecast: -0.3%; previous: 0.4%;
  6. Industrial production in France (m/m) (February): actual -0.7%; forecast -0.1%; previous 0.2%;


United Kingdom

  1. GDP (q/q) (Q4): actual 0.1%; forecast 0.1%; previous 0.1%;
  2. GDP (y/y) (Q4): actual 1.0%; forecast 1.0%; previous 1.2%;
  3. Current account (Q4): actual -18.4B; forecast -24.0B; previous -10.7B;
  4. Manufacturing PMI (March): actual 51.0; forecast 51.4; previous 51.7;
  5. Approved mortgage applications (February): actual 62,580; forecast 61,000; previous 60,250;
  6. BoE consumer credit (February): actual 1.935B; forecast 1.600B; previous 1.828B;


USA

  1. Chicago PMI (March): actual 52.8; forecast 54.8; previous 57.7;
  2. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (March): actual 91.8; forecast 87.8; previous 91.0;
  3. Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) – US (February): actual 6.882M; forecast 6.890M; previous 7.240M;
  4. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (March): actual 62K; forecast 41K; previous 66K;
  5. ISM Manufacturing Index (March): actual 52.7; forecast 52.3; previous 52.4;
  6. Jobless claims: actual 1,841K; forecast 1,840K; previous 1,816K;
  7. Initial jobless claims: actual 202K; forecast 212K; previous 211K;
  8. Non-farm payrolls (March): actual 178K; forecast 65K; previous -133K;
  9. Unemployment rate (March): actual 4.3%; forecast 4.4%; previous 4.4%;
  10. Services PMI (March): actual 49.8; forecast 51.1; previous 51.7;


China

  1. Manufacturing PMI (March): actual 50.4; forecast 50.1; previous 49.0;
  2. Services PMI (March): actual 50.1; forecast 49.9; previous 49.5;
  3. China Composite PMI (March): actual 50.5; no forecast; previous 49.5;
  4. Caixin Manufacturing PMI (month-on-month) (March): actual 50.8; forecast 51.6; previous 52.1;
  5. Caixin Services PMI (March): actual 52.1; forecast 53.6; previous 56.7;


Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.38%. The euro traded in the range of 4.2705 – 4.2986. 

x+K+zGMVaSGlAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==


Similarly, the dollar (USD) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.21%. The dollar’s price fluctuated between 3.7129 and 3.7280.  

AUPNVuivEMcOAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC


Oil and gold markets

The price of Brent crude rose by 1.90%. The price fluctuated between 98.52 and 109.92 USD per barrel.  

DXVbvIRtGwwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==


Similarly, gold rose by 3.43%. The price of gold fluctuated between 4,454.26 and 4,823.55 USD/ounce.  

fZlLKBVKunfM8JAAAA4H5K2UCqlXACAAAAqFLKBlKthBMAAABAlVI2kGolnAAAAACqlLKBVCvhBAAAAFCllA2kWgknAAAAgCqlbCDVSjgBAAAAVCllA6lWwgkAAACgSikbSLUSTgAAAABVStlAqpVwAgAAAKhSygZSrYQTAAAAQJVSNpBqJZwAAAAAqpSygVQr4QQAAABQpZQNpNp03T8BPkNtnh5gdwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==


Stock Market

The WIG index rose by 4.91%. The WIG index fluctuated between 118,781 and 125,603. 

P1k6eszSEweSAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC


Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.04% and fluctuated between PLN 243,896 and PLN 262,670.  

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


Key events from the past week

Donald Trump’s ultimatum: Donald Trump has issued a radical ultimatum: Iran has until Tuesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In an aggressive post, he threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure, declaring Tuesday ‘the day of power stations and bridges’. Experts warn that carrying out these threats would constitute a flagrant violation of the Geneva Conventions and a war crime, triggering an unprecedented international crisis and a wave of legal outrage.


The spectre of fuel rationing in Europe: Faced with a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned of drastic fuel shortages in the coming months. The European Union has already officially called on member states to implement voluntary oil-saving programmes in the transport sector. A protracted conflict could force the introduction of top-down rationing, including refuelling limits and strict speed restrictions.


Threat of US withdrawal from NATO: Spain, Italy and France have closed their airspace and key military bases to American aircraft transporting weapons to the Middle East. In response to these actions, Donald Trump described NATO as a “paper tiger” and stated that he was seriously considering the United States’ withdrawal from the alliance. However, the implementation of this unilateral move is restricted by US law, which requires the consent of the Senate or Congress on this matter.


Financial penalty for Poland for breaching its contract with Pfizer: A court in Brussels has ordered Poland to pay a massive fine of 5.6 billion zlotys for unilaterally terminating the 2022 contract. In addition to the heavy financial compensation, the ruling obliges the Polish government to compulsorily accept 64 million surplus doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. This severe setback is a direct result of political decisions to reject an amicable settlement with the American company.


Sharp rise in inflation: A sudden surge in oil prices, triggered by the war in the Middle East, has led to a renewed spike in inflation on global markets. According to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS), Poland’s CPI rose to 3.0% in March, whilst in the eurozone it accelerated to 2.5%. Such strong cost pressures are forcing economists to revise their forecasts and, in practice, dashing market hopes for imminent interest rate cuts.


Events worth watching this week

Outlook for the zloty: The zloty will remain under pressure from volatility caused by the oil shock and the conflict in Iran, which is fuelling inflationary risks. The key event will be the MPC’s decision on interest rates (Thursday, 9 April). Given the current geopolitical situation, investors are virtually ruling out the possibility of interest rate cuts, positioning themselves for the Council’s hawkish rhetoric.


Outlook for the euro: The euro exchange rate will react to the spectre of fuel rationing and transport route blockades. Tuesday’s PMI readings for services and the Sentix index (7 April) will be significant for market sentiment. On Wednesday, 8 April, we will see retail sales data, which will gauge the health of European consumers in the face of the escalating energy crisis and cost pressures.


Outlook for the dollar: The dollar will reinforce its status as a ‘safe haven’ in response to attacks on Iranian infrastructure. The key event of the week will be the release of the FOMC meeting minutes (Wednesday, 8 April), shedding light on the Fed’s next steps. The week will conclude with Friday’s CPI inflation data (10 April), which could set the medium-term trend for the main EUR/USD currency pair.


Outlook for the pound: The pound remains vulnerable to capital outflows due to concerns over commodity supplies from the Middle East. The highlight of the calendar will be Tuesday’s services PMI reading (7 April). On Thursday, 9 April, market attention will focus on the BoE’s Credit Conditions Survey, which illustrates the impact of geopolitical tensions on the liquidity and stability of the UK banking sector.


TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ

×Sorry. Your browser an unknown bot does not meet the minimum requirements of our platform. Please update your browser!