18 May 2026

Market Summary by AFORTI: Donald Trump in China, delay in interest rate cuts, disappointing GDP growth

Last week, the markets were dominated by Donald Trump’s visit to China, the postponement of interest rate cuts in the US, and the disappointing slowdown in Polish GDP growth. The price of Brent crude rose, whilst gold prices fell and the domestic WIG index rose.  The zloty weakened against the euro and the dollar. In the coming week, investors’ attention will focus on Polish core inflation and industrial production, as well as the US FOMC minutes and PMI readings.  

Economic indicators

Poland

  1. GDP (q/q) (Q1) Forecast: 0.5%; previously 1.0%;
  2. GDP (y/y) (Q1) Forecast: 3.4%; previously 4.1%;
  3. Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI Index (May): actual 48.20; previous 46.32;
  4. CPI (y/y) (April): actual 3.2%; forecast 3.2%; previous 3.0%;
  5. CPI (mo/mo) (April): actual 0.6%; forecast 0.6%; previous 1.1%;
  6. Current account balance (EUR) (March): actual -234M; previous -1034M;


Eurozone

  1. ZEW Index (May): actual -9.1; forecast -21.6; previous -20.4;
  2. GDP (y/y) (Q1): actual 0.8%; forecast 0.8%; previous 1.2%;
  3. Industrial production (m/m) (March): actual 0.2%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.2%;
  4. Total employment (Q1) P: actual 176,412.0K; previous 172,613.0K;
  5. Industrial production (y/y) (March): actual -2.1%; forecast -1.7%; previous -0.8%;
  6. GDP (q/q) (Q1) P: actual 0.1%; forecast 0.1%; previous 0.2%;


Germany

  1. CPI in Germany (m/m) (April): actual 0.6%; forecast 0.6%; previous 1.1%;
  2. ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany (May): actual -10.2; forecast -19.2; previous -17.2;
  3. CPI in Germany (y/y) (April): actual 2.9%; forecast 2.9%; previous 2.7%;
  4. HICP in Germany (y/y) (April): actual 2.9%; forecast 2.9%; previous 2.8%;
  5. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) in Germany (m/m) (April): actual 2.0%; forecast 1.7%; previous 2.7%;
  6. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) in Germany (y/y) (April): actual 6.3%; previous 4.1%;


United Kingdom

  1. GDP (y/y) (Q1) P: actual 1.1%; forecast 0.8%; previous 1.0%;
  2. GDP (m/m) (March): actual 0.3%; forecast -0.1%; previous 0.4%;
  3. GDP (quarter-on-quarter) (Q1) P: actual 0.6%; forecast 0.6%; previous 0.2%;
  4. Industrial production (month-on-month) (March): actual -0.2%; forecast -0.2%; previous 0.3%;
  5. Factory goods production (m/m) (March): actual 1.2%; forecast -0.1%; previous -0.2%;
  6. Business investment (q/q) (Q1): actual 0.7%; forecast 1.1%; previous -2.9%;


USA

  1. Existing home sales (April): actual 4.02M; forecast 4.05M; previous 4.01M;
  2. ADP weekly employment change: actual 33.00K; previous 39.25K;
  3. CPI (m/m) (April): actual 0.6%; forecast 0.6%; previous 0.9%;
  4. CPI (y/y) (April): actual 3.8%; forecast 3.7%; previous 3.3%;
  5. PPI (m/m) (April): actual 1.4%; forecast 0.5%; previous 0.7%;
  6. PPI (y/y) (April): actual 6.0%; forecast 4.9%; previous 4.3%;
  7. Crude oil inventories: actual -4.306M; forecast -2.000M; previous -2.313M;
  8. Retail sales (m/m) (April): actual 0.5%; forecast 0.5%; previous 1.6%;
  9. Initial jobless claims: actual 211K; forecast 205K; previous 199K;
  10. New York manufacturing index (May): actual 19.60; forecast 7.30; previous 11.00;


China

  1. New loans (April): actual -10.0B; forecast 320.0B; previous 2990.0B;
  2. M2 money supply (y/y) (April): actual 8.6%; forecast 8.5%; previous 8.5%;
  3. Total Social Financing in China (April): actual 620.0B; forecast 1,500.0B; previous 5,230.0B;
  4. CPI (y/y) (April): actual 1.2%; forecast 0.9%; previous 1.0%;
  5. CPI (m/m) (April): actual 0.3%; forecast -0.1%; previous -0.7%;
  6. PPI (y/y) (April): actual 2.8%; forecast 1.7%; previous 0.5%;


Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.23%. The euro traded in the range of 4.2305 – 4.2542. 

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Similarly, the dollar (USD) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 1.62%. The dollar’s price fluctuated between 3.5929 and 3.6583.  

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Oil and gold markets

The price of Brent crude rose by 8.57%. The price fluctuated between 102.93 and 109.62 USD per barrel.  

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Gold, on the other hand, fell by 3.83%. The price of gold fluctuated between 4,521.40 and 4,781.99 USD per ounce.  

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Stock Exchange

The WIG index rose by 0.88%. The WIG index fluctuated between 129,947 and 134,795. 

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Key events from the past week

Donald Trump’s visit to China: The US President’s visit to China yielded modest economic results, disappointing the markets with the lack of a broader trade agreement. The Chinese side merely announced the purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft, which fell short of expectations. The talks were dominated by geopolitical issues, including keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and the question of Taiwan. Donald Trump suggested moving the production of advanced semiconductors from Taiwan to the US, signalling a purely transactional approach to allied relations. The meeting confirmed Beijing’s growing, increasingly strong position on the international stage, and Trump himself was lavish in his praise of the Chinese leader.


Delay in US interest rate cut: April brought another negative inflation surprise in the United States. The CPI unexpectedly accelerated to 3.8% y/y, driven mainly by rapidly rising fuel prices – including petrol, which rose by over 28% year-on-year. Core inflation also turned out to be higher than expected. In response to this data, the market drastically reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy any time soon. Goldman Sachs revised its forecasts, pushing back the expected date of the first US interest rate cut to December 2026.


Disappointing GDP growth: The latest data from the Central Statistical Office confirmed a slowdown in the growth of the Polish economy. In the first quarter of 2026, GDP growth stood at 3.4% y/y, which was weaker than the market consensus (3.7%) and marked a significant slowdown compared to 4.1% y/y in the previous quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth slowed to 0.5%. Despite the weaker results, analysts point to a stable, albeit moderate, pace of growth, which is expected to be supported in the coming months by domestic demand and improved sentiment in industry and construction.


Record highs on global stock markets: Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and the oil shock, global equity markets continue their spectacular bull run. The US S&P 500 index has reached new all-time highs, closing the session above the 7,400-point mark. The main catalyst for these gains remains the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), which is effectively dampening investors’ concerns about inflation and protracted armed conflicts. An excellent indicator of this trend is the sensational financial results of tech giants and semiconductor manufacturers, such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), which reported over 40 per cent year-on-year revenue growth.


Events worth watching this week

Outlook for the zloty: On Monday, 18 May, market attention will focus on Poland’s core inflation reading. However, Thursday (21 May) will be key, when we will see a package of important data from the domestic economy: industrial production growth, the PPI index, and data on employment and wages in the corporate sector.


Outlook for the euro: The most important factors for the euro will be Thursday’s (21 May) preliminary PMI readings for manufacturing and services in Germany and the Eurozone. On Friday, 22 May, investors will analyse German GDP data and the Ifo index, and listen to a speech by the ECB President. Earlier, on Wednesday (20 May), the German PPI index will be published.


Outlook for the dollar: On Wednesday, 20 May, the dollar will react to the publication of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. On Thursday, 21 May, preliminary PMI figures, weekly jobless claims data and the Philadelphia Fed’s business activity index will be released. Friday, 22 May, will bring readings on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan.


Outlook for the pound: On Tuesday, 19 May, the latest labour market data, including the unemployment rate, will influence the volatility of the British currency. On Wednesday, 20 May, a key set of inflation figures will be published: CPI and PPI. On Thursday (21 May), we will see the PMI figures, and the week will conclude on Friday (22 May) with reports on retail sales and consumer sentiment from the GfK institute.


TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ

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