Market Summary by AFORTI: Chinese tariffs on dairy products from the EU, GDP and inflation in Poland, acquisition of InPost

Last week, key developments included central bank decisions to maintain interest rates in Poland, the Eurozone and the UK, a deterioration in the US labour market and US military intervention in Nigeria. On the asset markets, the WIG index and gold prices rose, while Brent crude oil and Bitcoin fell; at the same time, the zloty lost value against the euro and the dollar amid anticipation of new inflation projections. In the coming week, investors' attention will focus on GDP and CPI inflation data from Poland, the Eurozone and the US, which will verify further scope for cuts in the cost of money.

Economic indicators

Poland

1. GDP (q/q) (Q4): value 1.0%; forecast -; previously 0.9%;

2. GDP (y/y) (Q4): value 4.0%; forecast 3.9%; previously 3.8%;

3. CPI (y/y) (January): value 2.2%; forecast 2.0%; previous 2.4%;

4. CPI (m/m) (January): value 0.6%; forecast -; previous 0.0%;

5. Current account balance (EUR) (December): value -1698M; forecast -1250M; previously -499M;

Eurozone

1. GDP (y/y) (Q4): value 1.3%; forecast 1.3%; previously 1.4%;

2. GDP (q/q) (Q4): value 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.3%;

3. Trade balance (December): value 12.6B; forecast 11.8B; previous 9.3B;

4. Sentix investor sentiment (February): actual 4.2; forecast -0.2; previous -1.8;

5. Employment change (y/y) (Q4): actual 0.7%; forecast 0.6%; previous 0.6%;

6. Change in employment (q/q) (Q4): value 0.2%; forecast 0.1%; previously 0.2%;

Germany

1. Wholesale price index (WPI) (y/y) (January): value 1.2%; forecast -; previously 1.2%;

2. Wholesale price index (WPI) (m/m) (January): value 0.9%; forecast 0.1%; previous -0.2%;

France

1. Unemployment rate (Q4): value 7.9%; forecast 7.8%; previous 7.7%;

United Kingdom

1. GDP (y/y) (Q4): value 1.0%; forecast 1.2%; previous 1.2%;

2. GDP (m/m) (December): value 0.1%; forecast 0.1%; previous 0.2%;

3. GDP (quarter-on-quarter) (Q4): actual 0.1%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.1%;

4. Industrial production (month-on-month) (December): actual -0.9%; forecast -0.1%; previous 1.3%;

5. Trade balance (December): value -22.72B; forecast -22.30B; previous -23.58B;

6. BRC retail sales index (y/y) (January): value 2.3%; forecast 1.3%; previous 1.0%;

USA

1. Non-farm payrolls (January): actual 130K; forecast 66K; previous 48K;

2. Unemployment rate (January): actual 4.3%; forecast 4.4%; previous 4.4%;

3. Average hourly earnings (y/y) (January): actual 3.7%; forecast 3.6%; previous 3.7%;

4. Retail sales (m/m) (December): actual 0.0%; forecast 0.4%; previous 0.6%;

5. Core retail sales (m/m) (December): value 0.0%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.4%;

6. CPI (y/y) (January): value 2.4%; forecast 2.5%; previous 2.7%;

7. CPI (m/m) (January): value 0.2%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.3%;

8. Core CPI (m/m) (January): value 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.2%;

9. Crude oil inventories: value 8.530M; forecast -0.200M; previous -3.455M;

10. Jobless claims: value 1862K; forecast 1850K; previous 1841K;

China

1. CPI (YoY) (January): actual 0.2%; forecast 0.4%; previous 0.8%;

2. PPI (YoY) (January): actual -1.4%; forecast -1.5%; previous -1.9%;

3. New loans (January): value 4710.0B; forecast 5000.0B; previous 910.0B;

4. M2 money supply (y/y) (January): value 9.0%; forecast 8.3%; previous 8.5%;

5. Growth in outstanding debt (y/y) (January): value 6.1%; forecast 6.2%; previously 6.4%;

6. Total Social Financing in China (January): value 7220.0B; forecast 7050.0B; previously 2210.0B;

Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) weakened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 0.19%. The euro price fluctuated between 4.2050 and 4.2217.  

Similarly, the dollar (USD) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.61%. The dollar price fluctuated between 3.5487 and 3.5639.  

Oil and gold market

The price of Brent crude oil fell by 0.41%. The price fluctuated between USD 67.04 and USD 70.64 per barrel.  

Gold, on the other hand, rose by 1.49%. The price of gold fluctuated between USD 4,917.89 and USD 5,138.25 per ounce.  

Stock exchange

The WIG index fell by 0.62%. The price of the WIG index fluctuated between 123,966 and 127,184.  

Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 6.98% and fluctuated between PLN 236,000 and PLN 266,799.  

Important events of the past week

Chinese tariffs on dairy products from the EU: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that the final countervailing duty rates on dairy products imported from the European Union will range from 7.4% to 11.7%. The new tariffs, which came into force on Friday, are significantly lower than the temporary duties previously applied, which somewhat alleviates the concerns of European food exporters. Despite the reduction in charges, this decision formalises trade barriers and is another tangible element of economic tensions between Brussels and Beijing.

Polish GDP: The Polish economy accelerated significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025, with GDP growth of 4.0% y/y confirming solid fundamentals based on consumption and investment. The publication of this optimistic data, exceeding the results from the previous quarter, contributed to a decline in the yield on Polish 10-year bonds below 5%. Despite strong macroeconomic readings, the zloty lost slightly against major currencies on a weekly basis, with the EUR/PLN exchange rate stabilising at around 4.21.

Inflation data from Poland: January inflation in Poland slowed to 2.2% y/y, falling below the National Bank of Poland's inflation target (2.5% ± 1 percentage point). In view of these data, MPC members, including Ludwik Kotecki and Gabriela Masłowska, signalled that March would be an appropriate time to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Market experts consider a cut in the cost of money at the next meeting to be almost a foregone conclusion, forecasting a target reference rate of 3.50%.

Acquisition of InPost: A consortium of the Advent fund and American logistics giant FedEx announced a tender offer for InPost shares, valuing the company at approximately PLN 33 billion (EUR 7.8 billion). This news caused euphoria among investors, resulting in an immediate increase in the share price on the Amsterdam stock exchange by nearly 14%. Although this is one of the largest transactions in the history of Polish business, market sources do not indicate any direct, measurable impact on the zloty exchange rate in the analysed period.

Events worth watching this week

Outlook for the zloty: Thursday, 19 February, will be a key day for the zloty, when the Central Statistical Office publishes its January data package: industrial production (forecast to slow to 2.0% y/y) and average wages in the enterprise sector (forecast 7.2% y/y) . These readings will be analysed in the context of recent dovish statements by MPC members, who, following a fall in inflation below the target (2.2%), are signalling their readiness for a rate cut in March. On the same day, we will also see the producer price index (PPI), which will illustrate the current cost pressure on enterprises.

Outlook for the euro: Investors will focus on sentiment in the German economy, analysing the ZEW index, which will be published on Tuesday, 17 February (forecast for Germany: 45.2 points). The end of the week will bring preliminary PMI indices for industry and services in the Eurozone, Germany and France (Friday, 20 February), which are key to assessing the economic situation. The week will be rounded off by a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde scheduled for Friday morning.

Outlook for the dollar: After a quieter start to the week (Monday holiday – Presidents' Day), the highlight will be the Fed's preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE index, which will be released on Friday, 20 February (forecast 3.0% y/y). Earlier, on Thursday, the picture of the labour market will be completed by weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed index. The week will close with preliminary PMI readings for US manufacturing and services, verifying the actual strength of the US economy.

Outlook for the pound: The pound will be strongly influenced by a series of macro data, starting with the labour market report (unemployment rate and average wages) to be released on Tuesday, 17 February. Volatility may increase on Wednesday, 18 February, when key CPI inflation data (core inflation forecast at 3.1% y/y) will be released, which will affect expectations for the Bank of England. The picture of the British consumer will be completed by retail sales data scheduled for Friday, 20 February.

TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ