Market Summary by AFORTI: Central bank week – Poland, the Eurozone, the UK and the Czech Republic maintain interest rates, US intervention in Nigeria

Last week, key events included central bank decisions to maintain interest rates in Poland, the Eurozone and the United Kingdom, a deterioration in the US labour market and US military intervention in Nigeria. On the asset markets, the WIG index and gold prices rose, while Brent crude oil and Bitcoin fell; at the same time, the zloty lost value against the euro and the dollar amid anticipation of new inflation projections. In the coming week, investors' attention will focus on GDP and CPI inflation data from Poland, the Eurozone and the US, which will verify further scope for cuts in the cost of money.

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Economic indicators
Poland

1. PMI index for industry (January): value: 48.80; forecast: 49.00; previous: 48.50;
2. Interest rate decision (February): value: 4.00%; forecast: 4.00%; previous: 4.00%;
3. Foreign exchange reserves (January): value: 246.76B; forecast: -; previous: 231.02B;

Eurozone

1. Interest rate decision (February): value: 2.15%; forecast: 2.15%; previous: 2.15%;
2. Retail sales (y/y) (December): value: 1.3%; forecast: 1.6%; previous: 2.4%;
3. Core CPI (y/y) (January): value: 2.2%; forecast: 2.3%; previous: 2.3%;
4. PPI (y/y) (December): value: -2.1%; forecast: -2.3%; previous: -1.4%;
5. PMI index for services (January): value: 51.6; forecast: 51.9; previous: 52.4;
6. Composite PMI index according to S&P Global (January): value: 51.3; forecast: 51.5; previous: 51.5;

Germany

1. Retail sales in Germany (y/y) (December): value: 1.5%; forecast: -; previous: -1.6%;
2. PMI index for industry in Germany (January): value: 49.1; forecast: 48.7; previous: 47.0;
3. Factory orders in Germany (m/m) (December): value: 7.8%; forecast: -1.8%; previous: 5.7%;
4. Industrial production in Germany (m/m) (December): value: -1.9%; forecast: -0.2%; previous: 0.2%;
5. German trade balance (December): value: 17.1B; forecast: 14.1B; previous: 13.6B;
6. German services PMI (January): value: 52.4; forecast: 53.3; previous: 52.7;

France

1. PMI index for industry in France (January): value: 51.2; forecast: 51.0; previous: 50.7;
2. CPI index in France (y/y) (January): value: 0.3%; forecast: 0.6%; previous: 0.8%;
3. HICP index in France (y/y) (January): value: 0.4%; forecast: 0.6%; previous: 0.7%;
4. PMI index for services in France (January): value: 48.4; forecast: 47.9; previous: 50.1;
5. Industrial production in France (m/m) (December): value: -0.7%; forecast: 0.2%; previous: 0.1%;
6. France's trade balance (December): value: -4.8B; forecast: -3.8B; previous: -4.0B;

United Kingdom

1. Interest rate decision (February): value: 3.75%; forecast: 3.75%; previous: 3.75%;
2. Manufacturing PMI (January): value: 51.8; forecast: 51.6; previous: 50.6;
3. Construction PMI (January): value: 46.4; forecast: 42.2; previous: 40.1;
4. Services PMI (January): value: 54.0; forecast: 54.3; previous: 51.4;
5. Composite PMI (January): value: 53.7; forecast: 53.9; previous: 51.4;
6. Halifax house price index (m/m) (January): value: 0.7%; forecast: 0.1%; previous: -0.5%;

USA

1. ISM Manufacturing Index (January): value: 52.6; forecast: 48.5; previous: 47.9;
2. ISM Services Index (January): value: 53.8; forecast: 53.5; previous: 52.5;
3. ADP non-farm employment change (January): value: 22K; forecast: 46K; previous: 37K;
4. Initial jobless claims: value: 231K; forecast: 212K; previous: 209K;
5. Crude oil inventories: value: -3.455M; forecast: -2.000M; previous: -2.295M;
6. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, preliminary (February): value: 58.3; forecast: 54.9; previous: 55.4;
7. ISM Manufacturing Employment Index (January): value: 48.1; forecast: 46.0; previous: 44.8;
8. ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (January): value: 57.1; forecast: -; previous: 47.4;
9. ISM index for services regarding prices (January): value: 66.6; forecast: 65.0; previous: 65.1;
10. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, final (February): value: 56.6; forecast: 56.7; previous: 57.0;

China

1. Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (January): value: 50.3; forecast: 50.1; previous: 50.1;
2. Caixin Services PMI (January): actual: 52.3; forecast: 52.0; previous: 52.0;

Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 0.17%. The euro price fluctuated between 4.2081 and 4.2303.

Similarly, the US dollar (USD) strengthened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 0.42%. The price of the dollar fluctuated between 3.5479 and 3.5914.

Oil and gold market

The price of BRENT crude oil fell by 2.74%. The price fluctuated between USD 65.32 and USD 69.65 per barrel.

Gold, on the other hand, rose by 1.57%. The price of gold fluctuated between USD 4,434.00 and USD 5,108.96 per ounce.

Stock exchange

The WIG index rose by 0.38%. The WIG index price fluctuated between 121,854 and 128,173.

Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell another 10% and fluctuated between PLN 224,648 and PLN 229,200.

Important events of the past week

MPC decision on interest rates: The Monetary Policy Council, in line with market consensus, kept interest rates at 4.00%, even though some analysts had hoped for a cut in February. NBP President Adam Glapiński explained that the Council is postponing its decision until the March inflation projection is published. However, he signalled the possibility of lowering the cost of money next month, provided that the report does not bring any negative surprises. Currently, the target interest rate in Poland is estimated at 3.50%, and the Council's current restraint is due to caution regarding rapidly rising wages.

ECB keeps interest rates unchanged: The European Central Bank also left interest rates unchanged, maintaining the deposit rate at 2.00%. President Christine Lagarde argued that monetary policy is currently in the ‘right place’. With inflation in the eurozone at 1.7%, a stronger single currency could further support a sustained return of price dynamics below the target. The ECB emphasised that there was no rigid path for cuts, making further steps dependent on macroeconomic data and the current assessment of geopolitical risks.

Good GDP from Poland and zloty volatility: Other key central banks in Europe followed the ECB and the MPC, joining the pan-European trend of waiting. The Bank of England (BoE) left its main interest rate at 3.75%, and the Czech National Bank (CNB) kept the cost of money at 3.50%. These synchronised actions confirm that the region has entered a phase of observing the effects of previous decisions before making any decisions on further monetary policy easing.

The US labour market and the German economy: Data from the US labour market disappointed investors – the number of new claims for benefits rose to 231,000, and the Challenger report showed a jump in planned layoffs of nearly 117% y/y. Equally worrying signals are coming from Germany. Despite an unexpected 7.8% increase in industrial orders, the number of unemployed exceeded the 3 million mark, reaching its highest level in a decade. The situation of our main trading partner is exacerbated by a record wave of company bankruptcies, which casts a shadow over signs of recovery in production.

American intervention in Nigeria: The United States has officially deployed troops in Nigeria, fulfilling Donald Trump's election promise to protect persecuted Christians and fight terrorist organisations such as Boko Haram. The logistical and intelligence operation was made possible by sanctions pressure on President Bola Tinubu, whom the US administration had previously accused of inaction in the face of religious violence. This intervention, supported by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, coincides with congressional hearings on genocide and marks a turning point in relations with Abuja, forcing local authorities to take real action.

Events worth watching this week

Outlook for the zloty: The second half of the week will be decisive for the zloty's performance. On Thursday, 12 February, the Central Statistical Office will publish preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2025, which will illustrate the condition of the domestic economy at the turn of the year. The climax will come on Friday, 13 February, with the release of the CPI inflation rate for January and the current account balance. These data will have a key impact on the March decision of the Monetary Policy Council – investors will be looking for confirmation of NBP President Adam Glapiński's announcement of a possible interest rate cut.

Outlook for the euro: The week in the eurozone will begin with Monday's publication of the Sentix index and a speech by Joachim Nagel, President of the Bundesbank. However, the most important date in the calendar for the single currency will be Friday, 13 February. We will then see preliminary data on Eurozone GDP for the fourth quarter and the region's trade balance. These reports will verify whether the European economy is successfully avoiding recession while slowing inflation to 1.7%. The market will use this data to assess the sustainability of the ECB's narrative about the ‘right place’ for current monetary policy.

Outlook for the dollar: Volatility in the dollar may increase sharply as early as Tuesday, 10 February, following the release of retail sales data, which is a barometer of US consumer strength. However, the most important event of the week remains the CPI inflation reading, scheduled for Friday, 13 February. This result will be crucial for the Fed's next steps, especially in the context of recent personnel changes in the administration. The picture of the economic situation will be complemented by Thursday's data on jobless claims, which will verify the labour market's resilience to high borrowing costs.

Outlook for the pound: The British currency will come under strong pressure on Thursday, 12 February, when a package of fundamental data will be released: GDP for the fourth quarter, industrial production growth and the trade balance. Earlier, on Monday, investors will analyse the hawkish speech by MPC member Catherine Mann, and on Tuesday they will review the BRC report on retail sales. This set of information will allow them to assess whether the British economy is maintaining a growth momentum that will allow the Bank of England to keep interest rates at 3.75%.

TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ