21 September 2026

Interest rate hike in the USA, zloty sell-off and pressure on fuel prices

In the latest AFORTI.BIZ Market Report, we summarise the key events of the past week that dominated sentiment across financial markets. The main driver was the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike since 2023, which strengthened the dollar and led to a marked weakening. At the same time, markets remained under pressure from high oil prices and supply cuts by Saudi Aramco. We invite you to read our analysis of how these factors affect the liquidity and finances of Polish businesses.

Key takeaways

  • Interest rate hike in the USA: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00% — its first increase since 2023 — signalling that it intends to maintain its hawkish stance.
  • Marked weakening of the zloty: USD/PLN jumped by 1.86% towards PLN 3.80, while EUR/PLN rose by 0.89% to PLN 4.36, increasing market import costs and currency risk.
  • Oil market tensions and supply constraints: Brent crude remained above USD 100 per barrel, while Saudi Aramco’s supply cuts forced Poland’s refining sector to purchase more expensive replacement cargoes.


Economic indicators

Poland

  • CPI y/y (August): actual 3.4%; forecast 3.4%; previous 3.4%;
  • CPI m/m (August): actual 0.3%; forecast 0.4%; previous 0.4%;
  • Core CPI y/y (August): actual 3.3%; forecast 3.2%; previous 3.1%;
  • Industrial production y/y (August): actual 4.3%; forecast 6.8%; previous 4.8%;


Eurozone

  • CPI y/y (August): actual 3.2%; forecast 3.3%; previous 2.9%;
  • Core CPI y/y (August): actual 2.4%; forecast 2.4%; previous 2.5%;
  • Trade balance (July): actual 14.2B; forecast 3.7B; previous 7.2B;
  • ZEW index (September): actual 25.8; forecast 39.2; previous 31.4;
  • Industrial production m/m (July): actual -0.1%; forecast -0.2%; previous -0.1%;


Germany

  • German ZEW economic sentiment (September): actual 34.7; forecast 39.8; previous 34.2;
  • German ZEW current economic conditions index (September): actual -47.1; forecast -53.0; previous -61.1;
  • German PPI y/y (August): actual 4.6%; forecast 4.1%; previous 3.0%;


United Kingdom

  • Interest rate decision (September): actual 3.75%; forecast 3.75%; previous 3.75%;
  • CPI y/y (August): actual 3.1%; forecast 3.1%; previous 2.9%;
  • Unemployment rate (July): actual 4.9%; forecast 5.0%; previous 4.9%;
  • Retail sales y/y (August): actual 2.4%; forecast 1.9%; previous 1.2%;


USA

  • Interest rate decision (September): actual 4.00%; forecast 4.00%; previous 3.75%;
  • Retail sales m/m (August): actual 1.2%; forecast 0.8%; previous -0.5%;
  • Core retail sales m/m (August): actual 1.4%; forecast 0.6%; previous -0.2%;
  • Initial jobless claims (September): actual 198K; forecast 207K; previous 206K;
  • Building permits (August): actual 1.394M; forecast 1.400M; previous 1.433M;


China

  • Industrial production y/y (August): actual 5.2%; forecast 4.8%; previous 4.5%;
  • Retail sales y/y (August): actual 0.4%; forecast 0.7%; previous 0.6%;
  • Unemployment rate in China (August): actual 5.3%; forecast 5.2%; previous 5.2%;


Currency market

Over the week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.89%. The euro traded in a range of 4.3238–4.3678.

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(source: www.money.pl)


Similarly, the dollar (USD) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 1.86%. The dollar traded in a range of 3.7290–3.8114.

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(source: www.money.pl)


The pound sterling (GBP) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.87%. The pound traded in a range of 5.0432–5.0973.

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(source: www.money.pl)


Commodities market

Brent crude fell by 1.28%. The price traded in a range of USD 101.64–109.55 per barrel.

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(source: www.money.pl)


Gold, meanwhile, rose by 0.60%. The price of gold traded in a range of USD 4,285.59–4,438.67 per ounce.

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(source: www.money.pl)


Equity market

The WIG index fell by 0.06%. The index traded in a range of 152,058–156,725.

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(source: www.money.pl)


What does this mean for businesses?

  • Importers: The sharp rise in USD/PLN and EUR/PLN significantly increases the cost of foreign purchases and makes currency risk management necessary.
  • Exporters: The depreciation of the Polish zloty increases the profitability of foreign sales by raising the zloty value of revenues earned in dollars, euros and pounds.
  • Businesses seeking financing: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and Treasury yields above 5% point to market debt financing costs remaining high.


What drove the markets?

Interest rate hike in the USA

The Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00%, making its first upward move since 2023. The Fed’s hawkish decision, justified by persistent inflationary pressure, and signals of another rate hike before the end of the year strengthened the dollar. This pushed US Treasury yields higher, with the yield on 10-year securities exceeding 5%.


Higher oil prices and supply constraints

Brent crude rose above USD 100 per barrel, reaching almost USD 110 at its peak, in response to Houthi attacks around the Bab al-Mandab Strait and damage to Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline. As a result, Saudi Aramco reduced supplies to Europe. The situation affected the Polish energy group Orlen, for which Saudi crude accounted for 40% of throughput, forcing the company to purchase more expensive replacement cargoes from Norway, the USA and Kazakhstan.


Weakening of the zloty

The Polish zloty weakened markedly against the major currencies in response to the US interest rate hike and a global increase in risk aversion. USD/PLN jumped by 1.86% towards PLN 3.80, EUR/PLN rose by 0.89% to PLN 4.36, and GBP/PLN reached PLN 5.09. Higher foreign exchange rates increased purchasing costs for importers, while exporters benefited from the higher zloty value of foreign sales revenues.


What to watch this week?

Zloty (PLN)

Figures on wage growth, employment and producer price inflation for August will be released on Monday. Tuesday will bring the key retail sales report, followed by unemployment data on Wednesday, completing the picture of the condition of Polish consumers.


Euro (EUR)

On Wednesday, markets will focus on preliminary manufacturing and services PMI readings for the Eurozone and Germany. Germany’s Ifo business climate index and the ECB Economic Bulletin will be published on Thursday, followed by GfK consumer climate data on Friday.


Dollar (USD)

The Conference Board consumer confidence index will be published on Tuesday, followed by preliminary S&P Global PMI readings on Wednesday and jobless claims and home sales data on Thursday. The week will close with Friday’s durable goods orders and University of Michigan index.


Pound sterling (GBP)

The Rightmove house price index will be published on Monday. Wednesday’s series of preliminary services and manufacturing PMI readings will be decisive for the pound’s valuation, followed on Friday by the GfK consumer confidence index and a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.


Treasury Department | AFORTI.BIZ

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Data as of: 21 September 2026

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