Dovish NBP Weighs on the Zloty, Higher Oil Prices and a Hawkish Fed
In the latest AFORTI.BIZ Market Report, we summarise the developments that influenced currency and commodity markets, as well as global investor sentiment, over the past week.
Markets focused primarily on dovish comments from the NBP Governor, which weakened the Polish zloty, the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire that pushed oil prices higher, and the hawkish tone of the latest Federal Reserve minutes. Find out what this could mean for businesses settling payments in foreign currencies.
Key Takeaways
- The zloty weakened – a dovish shift from the NBP and signals of possible rate cuts triggered a sell-off in the Polish currency.
- The dollar gained – hawkish Fed minutes increased expectations of further US rate hikes, supporting the dollar.
- Oil prices rose – the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire pushed Brent crude prices up by more than 5%.
- Fuel markets came under pressure – Russia’s ban on diesel exports sharply increased refinery margins in Europe.
Economic Indicators
Poland
- Interest rate decision (July): actual: 3.75%; forecast: 3.75%; previous: 3.75%
- Foreign exchange reserves (EUR) (June): actual: 257.58B; forecast: n/a; previous: 255.60B
- Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI Index (July): actual: 49.16; forecast: n/a; previous: 48.16
Eurozone
- Sentix Investor Confidence (July): actual: -3.1; forecast: -14.5; previous: -13.4
- PPI (YoY) (May): actual: 5.9%; forecast: 5.7%; previous: 5.0%
- IHS S&P Global Construction PMI (MoM) (June): actual: 42.8; forecast: n/a; previous: 43.7
- PPI (MoM) (May): actual: 0.2%; forecast: 0.2%; previous: 0.7%
- Retail sales (YoY) (May): actual: 1.6%; forecast: 1.5%; previous: 0.9%
Germany
- Factory orders in Germany (MoM) (May): actual: 1.9%; forecast: 1.1%; previous: -3.2%
- Industrial production in Germany (MoM) (May): actual: 0.9%; forecast: 0.1%; previous: 0.2%
- Germany’s trade balance (May): actual: 19.1B; forecast: 14.9B; previous: 14.7B
United Kingdom
- Construction PMI (June): actual: 38.4; forecast: 40.1; previous: 38.2
- Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (June): actual: 0.6%; forecast: n/a; previous: 0.5%
- Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (June): actual: 0.2%; forecast: 0.1%; previous: -0.2%
United States
- Services PMI (June): actual: 51.2; forecast: 51.3; previous: 51.3
- S&P Global Composite PMI (June): actual: 51.9; forecast: 52.2; previous: 51.5
- ISM Services Index (June): actual: 54.0; forecast: 54.2; previous: 54.5
- Trade balance (May): actual: -77.60B; forecast: -78.30B; previous: -54.60B
- Initial jobless claims: actual: 215K; forecast: 218K; previous: 217K
China
- CPI (MoM) (June): actual: -0.3%; forecast: -0.2%; previous: -0.1%
- CPI (YoY) (June): actual: 1.0%; forecast: 1.1%; previous: 1.2%
- PPI (YoY) (June): actual: 4.1%; forecast: 4.1%; previous: 3.9%
Currency Market
Over the week, the euro (EUR) gained 0.87% against the Polish zloty (PLN). The euro traded in the 4.2853–4.3502 range.
Source: www.money.pl
Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) gained 1.11% against the Polish zloty (PLN). The dollar traded in the 3.7463–3.8061 range.
Source: www.money.pl
The British pound sterling (GBP) gained 1.48% against the Polish zloty (PLN). The pound traded in the 5.0024–5.1082 range.
Source: www.money.pl
Commodities Market
Brent crude oil rose by 5.66%. The price traded in the USD 71.09–80.54 per barrel range.
Source: www.money.pl
Gold fell by 1.43%. The price of gold traded in the USD 4,034.45–4,212.64 per ounce range.
Source: www.money.pl
Equity Market
Poland’s WIG Index rose by 2.19%. The index traded in the 136,758–142,231 range.
Source: www.money.pl
What Does It Mean for Businesses?
- Importers: a weaker zloty may increase the cost of purchases settled in foreign currencies. In this environment, close monitoring of exchange rates and upcoming payment dates becomes particularly important.
- Exporters: higher exchange rates may increase the value of foreign-currency revenues after conversion into Polish zloty. For companies selling abroad, this may be a signal to analyse the timing of currency conversion more closely.
- Transport companies: geopolitical instability and rising oil prices may increase cost pressure. Carriers should closely monitor changes in fuel prices and their impact on order profitability.
What Influenced the Markets?
Breakdown of the US-Iran Ceasefire
The fragile agreement in the Middle East broke down. In retaliation for attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States bombed targets in Iran. Tehran responded with strikes on US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. The escalation triggered a strong market reaction. Oil prices rose sharply by around 5%, reaching the USD 76–80 per barrel range. This raised serious concerns about renewed global inflationary pressure.
Shift from the NBP Governor and Zloty Weakness
Although the Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, the NBP Governor signalled that a rate cut could be possible in September. This unexpected dovish message triggered a sell-off in the zloty and a decline in Polish bond yields. EUR/PLN rose towards 4.35, reaching its highest level since November 2024, while USD/PLN approached the 3.80 level. Financial markets are now pricing in the possibility of faster monetary policy easing in Poland.
Hawkish Message from the Fed
The minutes from the June Federal Reserve meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, had a clearly hawkish tone. Fed officials expressed concerns about persistent price pressure and declared their determination to bring inflation back to target. The publication strengthened market expectations of further US interest rate hikes, pushing rate-cut scenarios into the background. As a result, the dollar strengthened visibly and capital outflows from emerging markets became more pronounced.
Fuel Market Disruption in Russia
The shutdown of nearly one third of Russian refineries led to a deep crisis in the domestic market. In response to supply shortages at petrol stations, Russian authorities introduced a full ban on diesel and petrol exports until 31 July. As Moscow had previously accounted for 11% of global seaborne diesel supplies, the sudden halt in exports immediately triggered a sharp increase in European refinery margins for this fuel.
What to Watch This Week
Polish Zloty (PLN)
The zloty will react to Tuesday’s, 14 July, current account balance publication. However, Wednesday’s, 15 July, CPI inflation data and Thursday’s, 16 July, core inflation reading will be key for the Polish currency.
Euro (EUR)
The euro will be influenced by Monday’s, 13 July, speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. However, Friday’s, 17 July, publication of Eurozone CPI inflation figures will be of key importance for the single currency.
US Dollar (USD)
The dollar will react to Tuesday’s, 14 July, CPI inflation data and Wednesday’s, 15 July, PPI readings. Volatility in the US currency is also likely to increase after Thursday’s, 16 July, US retail sales release.
British Pound (GBP)
Sterling will be driven by Thursday’s, 16 July, UK GDP growth data. On the same day, investors will also receive important industrial production figures from the United Kingdom.
Treasury Department | AFORTI.BIZ
The zloty remains under pressure. Check current exchange rates and business solutions at AFORTI.BIZ.
Data as at: 13 July 2026