Bond sell-off, zloty weakness and pressure on fuel prices
In the latest AFORTI.BIZ Market Report, we summarise the key events of the past week that shaped sentiment across financial markets. The main market driver was another wave of selling in government bond markets, which pushed the yield on Polish 10-year bonds to 6.34% and on US 10-year Treasuries above 5.2%. At the same time, oil prices remained high at around USD 107 per barrel due to transport disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Combined with USD/PLN rising towards PLN 3.85 and EUR/PLN to PLN 4.38, this intensified pressure on regional currencies. We invite you to read our analysis of how these developments affect the operations and liquidity of Polish businesses.
Key takeaways
- Further weakening of the Polish zloty: Amid a global increase in risk aversion and a stronger dollar, USD/PLN rose towards PLN 3.85, while EUR/PLN reached PLN 4.38.
- Continued pressure on the oil market: Brent crude rose towards USD 107 per barrel in response to geopolitical risks and restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Extension of the US–China trade truce: The USA and China agreed to postpone new tariffs and extend the Pusan trade agreement until 10 January.
Economic indicators
Poland
- Unemployment rate (August): actual 5.0%; forecast 5.0%; previous 5.0%;
- Retail sales y/y (August): actual 6.4%; forecast 4.5%; previous 5.3%;
- Corporate sector wages y/y (August): actual 5.6%; forecast 6.6%; previous 6.8%;
- M3 money supply y/y (August): actual 11.3%; forecast 11.2%; previous 11.3%;
- Employment growth y/y (August): actual -0.8%; forecast -0.8%; previous -0.8%;
Eurozone
- Manufacturing PMI (September): actual 52.7; forecast 52.6; previous 52.7;
- Services PMI (September): actual 53.0; forecast 51.4; previous 51.6;
- Consumer confidence index (September): actual -16.5; forecast -16.0; previous -15.5;
- M3 money supply y/y (August): actual 3.5%; forecast 3.5%; previous 3.4%;
- S&P Global composite PMI (September): actual 53.1; forecast 51.7; previous 52.0;
Germany
- German manufacturing PMI (September): actual 53.8; forecast 54.1; previous 54.3;
- German services PMI (September): actual 52.9; forecast 49.9; previous 49.7;
- German business expectations (September): actual 90.4; forecast 89.3; previous 89.0;
United Kingdom
- Manufacturing PMI (September): actual 52.0; forecast 51.5; previous 51.7;
- Services PMI (September): actual 51.7; forecast 52.0; previous 52.5;
- GfK consumer confidence index (September): actual -13; forecast -16; previous -14;
USA
- Initial jobless claims: actual 197K; forecast 201K; previous 198K;
- Building permits (August): actual 1.403M; forecast 1.394M; previous 1.433M;
- New home sales (August): actual 684K; forecast 615K; previous 643K;
- Durable goods orders m/m (August): actual 0.0%; forecast -0.3%; previous 0.9%;
- Crude oil inventories: actual 2.989M; forecast -0.700M; previous -0.840M;
Currency market
Over the week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.20%, reaching its highest level since January 2024. The euro traded in a range of 4.3440–4.4003.
(source: www.money.pl)
Similarly, the dollar (USD) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 1.02%. The dollar traded in a range of 3.7872–3.8620.
(source: www.money.pl)
The pound sterling (GBP) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.12% after significant fluctuations. The pound traded in a range of 5.0606–5.1164.
(source: www.money.pl)
Commodities market
Brent crude rose by 1.23%. The price traded in a range of USD 95.87–108.01 per barrel.
(source: www.money.pl)
Gold, meanwhile, fell by 2.17%. The price of gold traded in a range of USD 4,280.47–4,419.84 per ounce.
(source: www.money.pl)
Equity market
The WIG index rose by 1.41%. The index traded in a range of 155,601–159,113.
(source: www.money.pl)
What does this mean for businesses?
- Importers: The weaker zloty increases the cost of foreign purchases and requires active currency risk management.
- Exporters: Higher EUR and USD exchange rates increase the zloty value of foreign sales revenues, supporting export margins.
- Businesses planning structural reorganisations: Government proposals for changes to PIT, CIT and lump-sum taxation, including the introduction of a 17% lump-sum tax on trademark leases, will force businesses to review their existing optimisation models.
What drove the markets?
US–Iran tensions
Despite a temporary fall in Brent crude below USD 100 per barrel at the beginning of the week amid diplomatic hopes surrounding the UN summit, prices jumped to USD 107–108 in the second half of the week. The increase in the risk premium was driven by renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Iranian warnings that the conflict could spread to the Indian Ocean and the continuing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, where flows fell by approximately 60% to 6–7 million barrels per day.
Extension of the US–China trade agreement
During the diplomatic summit, Washington and Beijing agreed to extend their bilateral economic truce, known as the Pusan agreement, until 10 January. The decision to postpone new tariffs gave investors temporary relief, although key issues such as rare earth supplies and competition in the artificial intelligence sector remain unresolved.
Weakening of the zloty
The widening gap between the hawkish stance of the Fed and the ECB and the NBP’s stabilisation-oriented rhetoric, combined with a global shift of capital towards safe havens in a risk-off environment, led to a marked depreciation of the Polish currency. USD/PLN rose towards PLN 3.85, while EUR/PLN temporarily approached PLN 4.40, significantly increasing settlement costs for importers.
Another surge in bond yields in the USA and Poland
US economic data and concerns over inflationary pressure from expensive oil triggered a wave of bond selling. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries exceeded 5.2%, reaching its highest level since the financial crisis, while the 30-year yield rose to 5.5%. Following the core markets, the yield on Polish 10-year bonds increased to 6.34–6.45%, raising the market cost of capital.
What to watch this week?
Zloty (PLN)
A preliminary CPI inflation reading for September will be published on Wednesday. Poland’s manufacturing PMI will be released on Thursday, providing an indication of conditions and sentiment across the manufacturing sector.
Euro (EUR)
Eurozone economic sentiment indicators will be released on Tuesday. Preliminary CPI inflation data from Germany and France will follow on Wednesday. PMI and unemployment figures will be published on Thursday, followed by Eurozone CPI inflation on Friday.
Dollar (USD)
The Conference Board index and JOLTS report will be published on Tuesday. Wednesday will bring the ADP report and Core PCE inflation indicator. The manufacturing ISM will be released on Thursday, followed by the key nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
Pound sterling (GBP)
Bank of England lending data will be released on Tuesday. The final GDP reading for the second quarter will be published on Wednesday, followed on Thursday by the manufacturing PMI and a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
Treasury Department | AFORTI.BIZ
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Data as of: 28 September 2026