Market Summary by AFORTI: USA-EU-China tariff war, hour-long suspension of WSE quotations

Economic indicators

Poland:

1. Foreign exchange reserves (EUR) (March): value $219.35B; previously $220.46B;

2. Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI ( $(m/m)$ (Apr): value 47.31; forecast 48.68;

3. Current account balance (EUR) (Feb): value -220M; forecast -650M; previously -168M.

Eurozone:

1. Retail sales (y/y) (Feb): value 2.3%; forecast 1.8%; previously 1.8%;

2. German industrial production (m/m) (Feb): value -1.3%; forecast -0.9%; previously 2.0%;

3. German trade balance (Feb): value $17.7B; forecast $18.4B; previously $16.2B;

4. retail sales $(m/m)$ (Feb): value 0.3%; forecast 0.5%; previously 0.0%;

Germany:

1. German industrial production $(m/m)$ (Feb): value -1.3%; forecast -0.9%; previously 2.0%;

2. Germany trade balance (Feb): value $17.7B; forecast $18.4B; previously $16.2B;

3. German HICP (y/y) (March): value 2.3%; forecast 2.3%; previously 2.6%;

4. HICP in Germany $(m/m)$ (March): value 0.4%; forecast 0.4%; previously 0.5%;

5. CPI in Germany $(m/m)$ (March): value 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previously 0.4%;

6. Germany $(m/m)$ (March): value 2.2%; forecast 2.2%; previously 2.3

France:

1. French trade balance (Feb): value -7.9B; forecast -5.4B; previously -6.5B;

2. France current account (Feb): value -1.90B; previously -1.30B. 

United Kingdom:

1. GDP (m/m) (Feb): value 0.5%; forecast 0.1%; previously 0.0%;

2. Industrial production $(m/m)$ (Feb): value 1.5%; forecast 0.1%; previously -0.5%;

3. Trade balance (Feb): value -20.81B; forecast -17.30B; previously -18.22B;

4. Halifax house price index $(m/m)$ (March): value -0.5%; forecast 0.2%; previous -0.2%;

5. Halifax house price index (y/y) (March): value 2.8%; previously 2.8%;

6. q/q GDP (Feb): value 0.6%; forecast 0.4%; previously 0.3%.

USA:

1. Crude oil inventories: value 2.553M; forecast 2.200M; previously 6.165M;

2. Unemployment claims: value 1.850K; forecast 1.880K; prior 1.893K;

3. Core CPI $(m/m)$ (March): value 0.1%; forecast 0.3%; prior 0.2%;

4. CPI $(y/y) (March): value 2.4%; forecast 2.5%; previously 2.8%;

5. CPI $(m/m)$ (March): value -0.1%; forecast 0.1%; previously 0.2%;

6. Declared initial jobless: value 223K; forecast 223K; prior 219K;

7. consumer credit (Feb): value -0.81B; forecast 15.20B; prior 8.90B;

8. 3-year Treasury note auction: value 3.784%; previously 3.908%;

9. API weekly crude oil shares: value -1.057M; prior 6.037M;

10. Federal budget balance (March): value -161.0B; forecast -115.9B; prior -307.0B.

China:

1. New loans (March): value $3,640.0B; previously $1,010.0B;

2. M2 money stock (y/y) (March): value 7.0%; previously 7.0%;

3. CPI (y/y) (March): value -0.1%; forecast 0.0%; previously -0.7%;

4. CPI $(m/m)$ (March): value -0.4%; forecast -0.2%; previously -0.2%;

5. PPI (y/y) (March): value -2.5%; forecast -2.3%; previously -2.2%;

6. Total Social Financing in China (March): value $5,890.0B; previous $2,230.0B. 

Foreign exchange market

This week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.49%. The euro price oscillated between 4.2321 and 4.3015.

The dollar (USD), on the other hand, weakened strongly against the zloty (PLN) by 2.96% (11.5 grosze). The dollar price oscillated between 3.7514 and 3.9427.

Oil and gold market

The price of BRENT crude oil finally fell by 1.95%, after large increases on Wednesday, and oscillated in a range of USD 58.73 - 66.22/barrel. 

The gold price rose as much as 6.52% ($200), and settled in a range of $2973.25 - $3261.31/ounce.

Stock market

There was high volatility on the WSE this week and an hour-long suspension of trading on Monday due to increased HFT orders. The price of the WIG index increased by 2.34% and oscillated between 83 011 and 91 120.

Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.26% after fluctuations, falling at times to levels below 300,000 and oscillating in the range of 294,270 - 326,700.

Important events of the past week

USA-EU-China tariff war: At the beginning of April 2025, President Donald Trump's administration took steps that directly affected the European Union on the issue of tariffs. According to the announcement, 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the USA from all countries without exception, including the European Union, took effect from Wednesday (10 April). The decision reinstated tariffs previously introduced in 2018 and increased the rate on aluminium. The European Union, as a major exporter of these metals, was among the countries most affected by these tariffs. The USA president also announced tariffs on other products at different rates depending on the country or the region, evenly split between the trade deficit the USA has with the country in question.

In response to these actions, and against the backdrop of news that the USA was considering and subsequently implemented suspending newly imposed tariffs for 90 days for countries that did not retaliate, the European Union also decided to suspend its planned tariffs against the USA for a period of 90 days. EC President Ursula von der Leyen stressed that the purpose of this decision was to create space for trade talks, while also indicating the EU's readiness to respond if negotiations fail. This ‘letting go’ of the escalation of the EU-US trade war has contributed to the weakening of the dollar and the rise of the EUR-USD exchange rate. 

However, it is worth noting that these temporary suspensions did not apply to tariffs imposed on China. The US President decided not to suspend tariffs on the Middle Kingdom. China responded by announcing tariffs of 84% - the equivalent of those imposed on the country by the USA. This was followed by an escalation of tariffs on Chinese imports to the US to 145%, and China responded with 125% tariffs on goods from the USA. However, after analysis by Bloomberg journalists, the US administration ruled out taxing smartphones, laptops, hard drives, computer processors and memory chips in a document introducing tariffs on China, but Donald Trump demented these reports.

WSE trading suspended: The Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) suspended trading on all markets on Monday, 7 April 2025, for one hour, from 3:15 p.m. to 4:15 p.m. The reason for the decision was the safety of trading due to an excessive number of order operations, which could risk overloading the system. WSE president Tomasz Bardziłowski defended the decision, arguing that it was aimed at ensuring market integrity and equal access for all participants. After an hour's break, trading on the WSE resumed at 16:30.

Events worth watching this week

CPI in Poland, the UK and the Eurozone: On Tuesday, consumer inflation indicators in Poland will be published at 10:00. Their reading could have a significant impact on the zloty's exchange rate, especially as the previous lower-than-expected inflation forecast is seen as an argument for an interest rate cut as early as May. Theoretically, a lower reading should weaken the zloty, while an increase could result in a significant strengthening of the Polish currency, as it could prevent the Monetary Policy Council from cutting interest rates. Wednesday will see the publication of CPI from the UK and the Eurozone, where similarly, in theory, a lower inflation reading should weaken the pound and the euro, while a higher reading of the index could strengthen these currencies.

Fed Chairman's speech: a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled for 7.15pm on Wednesday. As with any of his speeches, this one too could have a major impact on financial markets, including the currency market. This conference is of particular importance in view of the ongoing and escalating trade war with China and the lower US inflation reading. Markets are awaiting guidance from the Fed on a possible interest rate cut. Given the high degree of uncertainty surrounding its speech, the dollar could be subject to significant volatility on Wednesday and Thursday, depending on what the US Central Bank Governor says.

TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ