Market Summary by AFORTI: USA car tariffs, interest rates in Poland, improving sentiment in German markets

Economic indicators

Poland:

1. Retail sales (y/y) (Feb): value 0.6%; forecast 5.0%; previously 6.1%;

2. M3 money supply (y/y) (Feb): value 9.1%; forecast 9.1%; previously 9.4%;

3. Car registrations (y/y) (Feb): value -2.60%; forecast 3.40%; previously not available;

4. Car registrations (m/m) (Feb): value 1.20%; forecast -20.50%; previously not available;

5. unemployment rate (Feb): value 5.4%; forecast 5.4%; previously 5.4%;

Eurozone:

1. PMI for industry in France (March): value 48.9; forecast 46.2; previously 45.8;

2. PMI for services in France (March): 46.6; forecast 46.3; previously 45.3;

3. PMI for industry in Germany (March): value: 48.3; forecast 47.1; previously 46.5;

4. PMI for services in Germany (March): value 50.2; forecast 52.3; previously 51.1;

5. PMI for industry (March): value 48.7; forecast 48.3; previously 47.6;

6. S&P Global composite PMI (March): value 50.4; forecast 50.8; previous 50.2;

Germany:

1. Business expectations (March): value 87.7; forecast 87.9; previously 85.6;

2. Current Situation Analysis (March): value 85.7; forecast 85.5; previously 85.0;

3. Ifo business sentiment indicator (March): value 86.7; forecast 86.8; previously 85.3;

4. Car registrations (y/y) (Feb): value -6.4%; forecast -2.8%; previously not available;

5. Car registrations (m/m) (Feb): -2.0%; forecast -7.6%; previously not available; 

6. GfK consumer climate (Apr): value -24.5; forecast -22.6; previously -24.6;

France:

1. CPI (y/y) (March): value 0.8%; forecast no data; previously 0.8%;

2. CPI (m/m) (March): value 0.2%; forecast 0.3%; previously 0.0%; 

3. HICP (m/m) (Mar): value 0.2%; forecast 0.3%; previously 0.1%;

4. HICP (y/y) (Mar): value 0.9%; forecast 1.1%; previously 0.9%;

5. consumer spending (m/m) (Feb): value -0.1%; forecast 0.3%; previously -0.6%;

6. Total jobless claims (Feb): value 3,229.0K; forecast no data; previously 3,162.0K;

United Kingdom:

1. CPI (y/y) (Feb): value 2.8%; forecast 3.0%; previously 3.0%; 

2. CPI (m/m) (Feb): value 0.4%; forecast 0.5%; previously -0.1%; 

3. PMI for services (March): value 53.2; forecast 51.2; previously 51.0;

4. Aggregate PMI (March): value 52.0; forecast 50.3; previously 50.5; 

5. retail sales (y/y) (Feb): value 2.2%; forecast 0.5%; previously 0.6%; 

6. Trade balance (January): value -17.85B; forecast -16.80B; previous -19.72B; 

USA:

1. Manufacturing PMI (March): value 49.8; forecast 51.9; prior 52.7; 

2. S&P Global composite PMI (March): value 53.5; forecast no data; prior 51.6;

3. Services PMI (March): value 54.3; forecast 51.2; previously 51.0;

4. new property sales (Feb): value 676K; forecast 682K; previously 664K;

5. Conference Board consumer confidence index (March): value 92.9; forecast 94.2; previously 100.1; 

6. Core fixed asset orders (m/m) (Feb): value 0.7%; forecast 0.2%; previously 0.1%; 

7. Durables orders (m/m) (Feb): value 0.9%; forecast -1.1%; previously 3.3%; 

8. S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, not seasonally adjusted (m/m) (Jan): 0.1%; forecast 0.2%; prior -0.1%; 

9. S&P/CS composite house price index, n.s.a. (y/y) (January): 4.7%; forecast 4.6%; previously 4.5%;

10. GDP (k/k) (Q4): value 2.4%; forecast 2.3%; previously 3.1%; 

Foreign exchange market

The euro (EUR) weakened against the zloty (PLN) this week. The price of the euro oscillated between 4.1590 and 4.2003.

The dollar (USD) also weakened against the zloty (PLN). The price of the dollar oscillated between 3.8437 and 3.8994. 

Oil and gold market

The price of BRENT crude oil rose by 0.47% and oscillated in the range of USD 71.27 - 73.44/barrel. 

The gold price rose by 2.96%, staying above US$3,000 for the week and oscillating in a range of US$3037.59 - US$3124.09/ounce. 

Stock market

Another good week on the WSE. The price of the WIG index rose by 0.96% and oscillated between 97 449 and 99 658. 

Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 3.02% this week and oscillated in the range of PLN 319,010 - 347,269. 

Important events of the past week

USA car tariffs: USA President Donald Trump has announced the imposition of a 25% tariff on all imported cars and light trucks, to take effect on 2 April, increasing the existing rate from 2.5%. The aim of this measure, Trump said, is to induce foreign companies to increase car production in the USA. In response to this decision, the Canadian Prime Minister announced retaliatory tariffs, which could negatively impact the USA economy. The European Union, led by Ursula von der Leyen, condemned the introduction of these tariffs, judging them to be harmful to businesses and consumers, and announced the preparation of corresponding tariffs.

President of the NBP on interest rates: Speaking at the congress of the Association of Polish Banks, the president of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapinski, reiterated that there are currently no grounds to change interest rates. He argued this on the grounds of persistently elevated inflation, including core inflation, which is not heading towards the inflation target in the coming months. His statement may have contributed to the strengthening of the Polish zloty towards the end of the week. Glapinski also suggested that banks should raise deposit rates for customers in the current situation of high nominal interest rates.

Market improvement in Germany: Germany saw an improvement in economic sentiment in March 2025. The Ifo Institute's index, considered an authoritative indicator of the health of the German economy, rose after two years of stagnation as companies expect a recovery. In addition, Germany's manufacturing PMI index reached its highest level in 31 months. As of 28 March 2025, Germany's projected unemployment rate for March was 6.2%.

Draft USA-Ukraine agreement: On the basis of available information, a draft agreement between the USA and Ukraine has been submitted to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, which has caused a storm. According to the draft, the USA would gain full control over Ukrainian raw materials and infrastructure, including railways and ports. Among other things, the agreement provides for the management of a joint reconstruction fund by three USA representatives with veto rights and for Ukraine to transfer half of the revenues from the deposits. The ‘right of first refusal’ for the USA to invest in Ukrainian resources is also a controversial provision. Due to unfavourable conditions, the Verkhovna Rada blocked further procedure on this project.

Relevant for the currency market this week

Tariffs on the European Union:  Donald Trump's announced tariffs on European Union goods are due to take effect on Wednesday, 2 April. However, the US President did not specify what the amount of these tariffs will be, whether they will be imposed uniformly on all EU member states and which exact goods will be affected. Due to this high degree of uncertainty, currency markets may be subject to considerable volatility this week. Particularly large fluctuations may affect the value of the dollar against other currencies.

Interest rate decision: The Monetary Policy Council will announce its decision on interest rates at 14:00 on Wednesday. Adam Glapinski, chairman of the MPC, makes it clear that there is currently no intention to cut the interest rate, which stands at 5.75% and is one of the highest in the European Union. An unexpected change in this value would cause large fluctuations in the exchange rate of the zloty: a reduction in the interest rate would weaken the Polish currency, while an increase would further strengthen it.

TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ