Market Summary by AFORTI: Trump's speech at the UN forum, strong macroeconomic data from the US, escalation of drone incidents in Europe

2025-09-29

Last week, financial markets were strongly influenced by positive macroeconomic data from the US (including GDP, durable goods orders, and lower unemployment claims), which reduced expectations for quick interest rate cuts by the Fed and strengthened the dollar. Market sentiment was also negatively affected by geopolitical tensions related to Donald Trump's critical speech towards the EU and the escalation of drone incidents in Europe. As a result, both the euro and the dollar strengthened against the zloty, while Brent oil, gold, and the WIG index gained value, while Bitcoin declined. In the coming week, investors will focus on CPI inflation data in Poland and the eurozone, as well as the key US labor market report (NFP).

Economic Indicators

Poland

1. Retail Sales (y/y) (August): 3.0%; forecast 3.3%; previously 4.8%

2. M3 Money Supply (y/y) (August): 11.1%; forecast 11.1%; previously 10.8%

3. Unemployment Rate (August): 5.5%; forecast 5.5%; previously 5.4%

Eurozone

1. Manufacturing PMI (September) P: 49.5; forecast 50.7; previously 50.7

2. S&P Global Composite PMI (September) P: 51.2; forecast 51.1; previously 51.0

3. Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (September): 87.7; forecast 89.3; previously 88.9

4. M3 Money Supply (y/y) (August): 2.9%; forecast 3.3%; previously 3.4%

5. Total Unemployed in France (August): 3,021.8K; forecast -; previously 3,033.5K

6. Manufacturing PMI (September) P: 49.5; forecast 50.7; previously 50.7

Germany

1. Germany Manufacturing PMI (September) P: 48.5; forecast 50.0; previously 49.8

2. Germany Services PMI (September) P: 52.5; forecast 49.5; previously 49.3

3. Germany Current Situation Analysis (September): 85.7; forecast 86.5; previously 86.4

4. Germany GfK Consumer Climate (October): -22.3; forecast -23.3; previously -23.5

5. Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (September): 87.7; forecast 89.3; previously 88.9

France

1. France Manufacturing PMI (September) P: 48.1; forecast 50.2; previously 50.4

2. France Services PMI (September) P: 48.9; forecast 49.7; previously 49.8

United Kingdom

1. Services PMI (September): 51.9; forecast 53.4; previously 54.2

2. Composite PMI (September) P: 51.0; forecast 52.7; previously 53.5

3. Manufacturing PMI (September) P: 46.2; forecast 47.1; previously 47.0

USA

1. Services PMI (September): 53.9; forecast 54.0; previously 54.5

2. Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) (August): 0.4%; forecast -0.1%; previously 1.1%

3. Durable Goods Orders (m/m) (August) P: 2.9%; forecast -0.3%; previously -2.7%

4. GDP (q/q) (Q2): 3.8%; forecast 3.3%; previously -0.5%

5. Initial Jobless Claims: 218K; forecast 233K; previously 232K

6. Existing Home Sales (August): 4.00M; forecast 3.96M; previously 4.01M

7. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) (m/m) (August): 0.2%; forecast 0.2%; previously 0.2%

8. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) (y/y) (August): 2.9%; forecast 2.9%; previously 2.9%

9. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (September): 55.1; forecast 55.4; previously 58.2

China

1. PBoC Loan Prime Rate (September): 3.50%; forecast 3.50%; previously 3.50%

2. PBoC Loan Prime Rate: 3.00%; forecast 3.00%; previously 3.00%

3. China Industrial Profits, YTD (August): 0.9%; forecast -; previously -1.7%

Currency Market:

This week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.07%. The euro price ranged between 4.2533 - 4.2749.

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Similarly, the dollar (USD) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.43%. The dollar price ranged between 3.5988 - 3.6690.

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Oil and Gold Market

BRENT oil price increased by as much as 4.55%. The price ranged between 65.97 - 70.71 USD/barrel.

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Gold, meanwhile, increased by 1.89. Gold prices ranged between 3,718.87 - 3,821.92 USD/ounce.

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Warsaw Stock Exchange

The WIG index rose by 1.13%. The WIG index price ranged between 104,472 - 106,571.

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Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 4.67%. Bitcoin's price ranged between 394,262 - 419,634 zlotys.

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Important events from the past week

Donald Trump's speech at the UN forum: During his appearance at the UN forum, Donald Trump sharply criticized the European Union, attacking the fundamentals of its energy, climate, and migration policies. He called the carbon footprint a "fraud" and described the "Green Deal" as destructive to Europe's economy and heritage. Trump also called on European countries to immediately stop importing energy resources from Russia, suggesting that American LNG could fully replace these supplies. The impact of this speech on currencies is potentially long-term – if Europe increases energy imports from America under US pressure, this may strengthen the dollar (USD) through increased demand for this currency, while simultaneously introducing uncertainty and weakening the euro (EUR).

Escalation of drone incidents: Last week, there was a series of drone incidents over airports in Denmark, as well as in Sweden and Norway, leading to temporary airspace closures. Danish authorities described these events as "blatant provocation," pointing to Russia as the likely perpetrator. In response to the growing threat, an initiative to create an "anti-drone wall" on the border with Russia and Belarus emerged, and Western leaders, including Donald Trump, announced they would shoot down objects violating NATO airspace. Such events increase geopolitical tension and risk aversion in Europe, which may negatively impact the euro (EUR) exchange rate and regional currencies, including the zloty (PLN).

Central bank actions: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained interest rates at an unchanged level of 0.00%, which was in line with market expectations and contributed to the stabilization of the franc (CHF) exchange rate. In Poland, a member of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), Prof. Ireneusz Dąbrowski, declared readiness to cut rates, emphasizing that this process would be conducted carefully and dependent on incoming data. The NBP Vice President, Marta Kightley, noted that future inflation will depend on energy prices. Announcements of possible rate cuts in Poland may exert pressure on the zloty (PLN) in the future, especially in contrast to the more hawkish policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Strong macroeconomic data from the US: Last week, a series of macroeconomic data from the United States was published, which turned out to be significantly better than analysts' expectations. The final GDP estimate for the second quarter was revised upward to 3.8% (quarter-to-quarter, annualized), mainly due to stronger private consumption, and durable goods orders data also positively surprised. Additionally, the number of new unemployment benefit claims was lower than forecasts, which completed the positive picture of the US economy. Strong data from the US reduced expectations for quick and deep interest rate cuts by the Fed, which translated into a strengthening of the US dollar (USD) and a drop in the EUR/USD rate below 1.17.

Events worth watching this week

Outlook for the zloty: The zloty remains under slight pressure in an environment of global dollar strengthening and reduced risk appetite, which affects emerging market currencies. Weak data from the construction and transport sectors indicate economic slowdown. Key for PLN quotations will be Tuesday's (September 30) CPI inflation data for September, which may influence RPP decisions, and Wednesday's (October 1) PMI for manufacturing. Investors will also monitor the geopolitical situation in the region, including the aftermath of elections in Moldova.

Outlook for the euro: The outlook for the euro is uncertain. The currency is under pressure due to the contrast between the strong US economy and weaker data from the eurozone, such as the September PMI. Key data this week includes Tuesday's (September 30) preliminary CPI inflation readings from France and Germany, as well as Wednesday's (October 1) HICP inflation data for the entire eurozone and manufacturing PMI indicators. Market sentiment will also be influenced by numerous speeches from ECB members, including President Christine Lagarde (Tuesday and Friday).

Outlook for the dollar: The US dollar may continue its upward correction, supported by a series of strong macroeconomic data that reduce expectations for quick interest rate cuts by the Fed. The main event of the week will be Friday's (October 3) data from the US labor market for September (NFP), which may confirm the strength of the economy and further strengthen the dollar. Investors will also analyze Tuesday's (September 30) Conference Board consumer confidence indicator and Wednesday's (October 1) ISM data for manufacturing, as well as numerous speeches by Fed members.

Outlook for the pound: In the coming week, the British pound will be primarily influenced by macroeconomic data and speeches by Bank of England (BoE) representatives. Investors will pay attention to Monday's (September 29) money supply data. Tuesday's (September 30) GDP and business investment data for the second quarter and Wednesday's (October 1) manufacturing PMI indicators will also be crucial. Additionally, numerous speeches by members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), including Ramsden, Mann, and Breeden, may provide guidance on the future path of interest rates.

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