Market summary by AFORTI: Trade agreement, interest rates maintained, presidential inauguration

2025-08-04

Last week on the financial markets saw the announcement of a trade agreement between the USA and the European Union, as well as the maintenance of interest rates in the United States. In addition, US President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Russia. The euro strengthened against the zloty, and the dollar also strengthened against the Polish currency by 1.80%. The price of Brent crude oil and gold rose. The WIG index fell after reaching historic levels, while the price of Bitcoin fell.

Economic indicators

Poland

1. CPI (m/m) (July): value 0.3%; forecast no data; previously 0.1%

2. CPI (y/y) (July): value 3.1%; forecast 2.8%; previously 4.1%

Eurozone

1. GDP (q/q) (Q2): value 0.1%; forecast 0.0%; previously 0.6%

2. GDP (y/y) (Q2): value 1.4%; forecast 1.2%; previously 1.5%

3. Unemployment rate (June): actual 6.2%; forecast 6.3%; previous 6.2%

4. CPI (y/y) (July): actual 2.0%; forecast 1.9%; previous 2.0%

5. PMI index for industry (July): value 49.8; forecast 49.8; previously 49.5

6. Core CPI index (y/y) (July): value 2.3%; forecast 2.3%; previously 2.3%

Germany

1. Change in unemployment (July): actual 2K; forecast 15K; previous 10K

2. Unemployment rate (July): actual 6.3%; forecast 6.4%; previous 6.3%

3. CPI in Germany (y/y) (July): actual 2.0%; forecast 1.9%; previous 2.0%

4. HICP in Germany (y/y) (July): actual 1.8%; forecast 1.8%; previous 2.0%

5. PMI index for industry in Germany (July): value 49.1; forecast 49.2; previously 49.2

France

1. CPI index (m/m) (July): value 0.2%; forecast 0.3%; previously 0.4%

2. French GDP (q/q) (Q2): value 0.3%; forecast 0.1%; previous 0.1%

3. French GDP (y/y) (Q2): value 0.7%; forecast no data; previous 0.6%

United Kingdom

1. Nationwide social poverty index (HPI) (y/y) (July): actual 2.4%; forecast 2.1%; previous 2.1%

2. Nationwide HPI (month-on-month) (July): actual 0.6%; forecast 0.5%; previous -0.9%

3. CBI distributive trades survey (July): actual -34; forecast -28; previous -46

4. Mortgage lending (June): value 5.34B; forecast no data; previous 2.21B

5. Private net debt (June): value 6.757B; forecast 3.700B; previous 2.900B

USA

1. Auction of 2-year Treasury bills: value 3.920%; forecast no data; previously 3.786%

2. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (July): value 97.2; forecast 95.9; previously 95.2

3. Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - USA (June): value 7.437M; forecast 7.510M; previously 7.712M

4. Crude oil inventories: value 7.698M; forecast -2.300M; previously -3.169M

5. Interest rate decision: value 4.50%; forecast 4.50%; previous 4.50%

6. Initial jobless claims: actual 218K; forecast 222K; previous 217K

7. Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index (y/y) (June): actual 2.8%; forecast 2.7%; previous 2.8%

8. Change in non-farm payrolls (July): actual 73K; forecast 106K; previous 14K

9. PMI index for industry (July): actual 49.8; forecast 49.5; previous 52.9

10. ISM index for industry (July): value 48.0; forecast 49.5; previously 49.0

China

1. PMI index for industry (July): value 49.3%; forecast 49.7%; previously 49.7%

2. PMI index for services (July): value 50.1%; forecast 50.3%; previously 50.5%

3. PMI index for industry according to Caixin (m/m) (July): value 49.5; forecast 50.2; previously 50.4

4. Industrial profit in China, YTD (June): value -1.8%; forecast no data; previously -1.1%

5. Foreign direct investment (June): value -15.20%; forecast no data; previously -13.20%

Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the Polish zloty (PLN). The euro price fluctuated between 4.2436 and 4.2836.

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Similarly, the dollar (USD) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) by 1.80%, or as much as 14 groszy. The price of the dollar fluctuated between 3.6060 and 3.7537.

Oil and gold market

The price of BRENT crude oil rose by 1.58%. The price fluctuated between 67.62 and 72.81 USD/barrel.

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Similarly, gold rose by 2.33%. The price of gold fluctuated between 3321.45 and 3416.22 USD/ounce.

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Stock Exchange

The WIG index ultimately fell by 2.64% after reaching historic levels. The price of the WIG index fluctuated between 105,228 and 109,323.

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Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.09%. The price of Bitcoin fluctuated between PLN 421,000 and PLN 442,500.

Important events from last week

Trade agreement and new US tariffs: Last week, a trade agreement between the European Union and the USA was announced, providing for 15% tariffs on most EU goods. The agreement was considered unfavourable for the EU. In addition, the US president signed regulations introducing new tariffs for more than 70 countries, including Canada (from 25% to 35%), Turkey (from 10% to 15%) and Switzerland (from 31% to 39%), and announced 25% tariffs on goods from India.

Maintaining interest rates in the USA: Last week, the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), decided to keep its main interest rate, i.e. the cost of borrowing money, unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. This was in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech was perceived as cautious but firm, suggesting that the bank may not rush to lower interest rates.

Slowdown in inflation: In July 2025, Poland saw a slowdown in inflation, which, according to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office, stood at 3.1% year-on-year. This means that prices rose much more slowly than in June, when they stood at 4.1%. This was the first time in a year that price growth was within the range considered normal by the central bank (2.5% +/-1 percentage point). The main reasons were lower fuel prices, reduced gas tariffs and the return of electricity charges.

Ultimatum for Russia: US President Donald Trump has set Russia a deadline to conclude a truce with Ukraine, giving it ‘10 days from today’. He announced that if no agreement is reached by then, the USA will impose additional financial penalties and customs duties on Russia. This is already a shortened deadline, as the US president had previously mentioned longer deadlines. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov ‘took note’ of the ultimatum, but stressed that the ‘special military operation’ is continuing.

Events worth watching this week

Inauguration of the President of Poland: On Wednesday, 6 August, President-elect Karol Nawrocki is to take office in Poland. This event may have a potential impact on the Polish currency. Investors will closely watch the new president's first steps to assess whether his policies will support the country's economic stability. Any signals regarding changes in economic policy, regulatory reform or relations with the European Union will influence the perception of the zloty on international markets.

Bank of England decision: On Thursday, 7 August, the Bank of England will announce its decision on interest rates. This decision is one of the key events that may affect the pound sterling (GBP). The forecast for August is 4.00%, compared to the previous rate of 4.25%. Lowering interest rates may weaken the pound, as lower interest rates often lead to capital outflows from the country.

TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ

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Handling of complaints and claims.	Article 6(1)(b) and (f) of the GDPR For a period of 1 year following the settlement of the complaint.	The Controller, in connection with the handling of complaints, contacts employees and/or associates of clients for legitimate purposes.
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Archiving of documents, including contracts and accounting records	Article 6(1)(c) of the GDPR For the periods specified by applicable law, and where no such periods are prescribed for certain documents, for as long as their retention falls within the scope of the Controller’s legitimate purpose, as determined by the statutory limitation period for the possible pursuit of claims.	----
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