Market Summary by AFORTI: Summit in Alaska, GDP from Poland, Jackson Hole Symposium, CPI from the EU

2025-08-18

Last week on the financial markets was full of events that affected the global economy. Donald Trump's meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, despite the lack of a final agreement, was considered a symbolic diplomatic victory for Russia. Poland saw a moderate economic recovery, as confirmed by GDP estimates for the second quarter of 2025. The zloty strengthened against the dollar but weakened against the euro. The WIG index fell after reaching new highs, and the price of gold declined. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin rose.

Economic indicators

Poland

1. GDP (y/y) (Q2): 3.4%; forecast 3.3%; previously 3.2%

2. GDP (q/q) (Q2): 0.8%; forecast not applicable; previously 0.7%

3. Current account balance (EUR) (June): 651M; forecast not applicable; previously -1.838M

4. CPI (m/m) (July): 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previously 0.1%

5. CPI (y/y) (July): 3.1%; forecast 3.1%; previously 4.1%

6. Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (m/m) (August): 48.90; forecast not applicable; previously 51.70

Eurozone

1. GDP (y/y) (Q2): 1.4%; forecast 1.4%; previous 1.5%

2. Change in employment (y/y) (Q2): 0.7%; forecast 0.6%; previous 0.7%

3. ZEW index (August): 25.1; forecast 28.1; previously 36.1

4. Industrial production (m/m) (June): -1.3%; forecast -0.9%; previously 1.1%

5. Industrial production (y/y) (June): 0.2%; forecast 1.7%; previous 3.1%

Germany

1. ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany (August): 34.7; forecast 39.5; previous 52.7

2. ZEW Current Economic Conditions Index in Germany (August): -68.6; forecast -65.0; previous -59.5

3. CPI in Germany (y/y) (July): 2.0%; forecast 2.0%; previous 2.0%

4. CPI in Germany (m/m) (July): 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.0%

5. HICP in Germany (m/m) (July): 0.4%; forecast 0.4%; previous 0.1%

6. HICP index in Germany (y/y) (July): 1.8%; forecast 1.8%; previous 2.0%

France

1. HICP index in France (m/m) (July): 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.4%

2. CPI in France (m/m) (July): 0.2%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.4%

3. CPI in France (y/y) (July): 1.0%; forecast 1.0%; previous 1.0%

United Kingdom

1. Average earnings, including bonuses (June): 4.6%; forecast 4.7%; previous 5.0%

2. GDP (y/y) (Q2): 1.2%; forecast 1.0%; previous 1.3%

3. GDP (m/m) (June): 0.4%; forecast 0.2%; previous -0.1%

4. Business investment (q/q) (Q2) P: -4.0%; forecast 0.1%; previous 3.9%

5. Jobless claims (July): -6.2K; forecast 19.7K; previous -15.5K

6. Employment change 3m/3m (m/m) (June): 238K; forecast not applicable; previous 134K

USA

1. CPI (m/m) (July): 0.2%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.3%

2. Crude oil inventories: 3.036M; forecast -0.900M; previous -3.029M

3. Initial jobless claims: 224K; forecast 225K; previous 227K

4. PPI (m/m) (July): 0.9%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.0%

5. Core retail sales (m/m) (July): 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.8%

6. Retail sales (m/m) (July): 0.5%; forecast 0.6%; previous 0.9%

7. Core CPI (m/m) (July): 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.2%

8. CPI (y/y) (July): 2.7%; forecast 2.8%; previous 2.7%

9. Federal budget balance (July): -291.0B; forecast -206.7B; previous 27.0B

10. Weekly API report on crude oil stocks: 1.500M; forecast -0.800M; previous -4.200M

China

1. Fixed asset investment (y/y) (July): 1.6%; forecast 2.7%; previous 2.8%

2. Industrial production (y/y) (July): 5.7%; forecast 6.0%; previous 6.8%

3. China unemployment rate (July): 5.2%; forecast 5.1%; previous 5.0%

4. Retail sales (y/y) (July): 3.7%; forecast 4.6%; previous 4.8%

5. New loans (July): -50.0B; forecast 305.0B; previously 2,240.0B

6. Growth in outstanding debt (y/y) (July): 6.9%; forecast 7.0%; previously 7.1%

Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) strengthened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 0.24%. The euro price fluctuated between 4.2421 and 4.2638.

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The US dollar (USD) weakened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 0.24%. The price of the dollar fluctuated between 3.6241 and 3.6746.

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Oil and gold market

The price of BRENT oil finally returned to its value from the beginning of the week. The price fluctuated between 65.04 and 67.08 USD/barrel.

Gold, on the other hand, fell by 2.21%. The price of gold fluctuated between USD 3,376.62 and USD 3,461.57 per ounce.

Stock exchange

The WIG index fell by 1.0% after reaching new highs. The WIG index price fluctuated between 108,492 and 111,848.

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Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.76%. The price of Bitcoin fluctuated between PLN 421,262 and PLN 441,982.

Important events of the past week

Alaska Summit: Donald Trump's meeting with Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, on 13 August 2025, was a key event that raised both concerns and hopes for a breakthrough in relations. The talks, which lasted about three hours, began with a warm welcome and later continued in a larger group than originally planned. Vladimir Putin described the negotiations as ‘constructive’ and ‘based on mutual respect,’ highlighting potential areas of cooperation such as trade, technology and space exploration. Donald Trump also considered the talks to be ‘very productive,’ although no final agreement was reached. For Russia, the very fact of the meeting was a symbolic exit from international isolation and an image and diplomatic victory. Although the Western and Ukrainian press largely assessed them as fruitless, for Moscow it was an open door to economic cooperation, even if it did not lead to an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.

Polish economic recovery: The Polish economy continues its moderate recovery, as confirmed by the Central Statistical Office's flash estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2025. Growth was 3.4% year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, which was in line with market forecasts and puts Poland at the forefront of the EU in terms of GDP growth. Growth is expected to reach 3.7% for the whole of 2025. Surprising news was the current account surplus in June, which, after three months of deficit, amounted to EUR 651 million, significantly exceeding expectations. The main reason was the return of the trade balance to a slight surplus after thirteen months of deficit. However, it should be remembered that the key factor behind this result was a decline in imports, which is not necessarily the best indicator for the domestic economy.

Inflation data from the USA: In July, consumer inflation (CPI) in the United States was 2.7% year-on-year, below market expectations (2.8%). At the same time, core CPI inflation rose to 3.1% from 2.9% in the previous month, exceeding the forecast of 3.0%. The lower headline inflation reading reinforced speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would resume interest rate cuts as early as September. This affected the EUR/USD exchange rate, which continued to rise, approaching the 1.17 level.

Events worth watching this week

Jackson Hole Symposium and Powell's Speech: This week will see the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, organised by the Federal Reserve (Fed) of Kansas City. It is one of the most important meetings of central bankers in the world, attracting the attention of investors and economists. Particular attention will be drawn to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, scheduled for Friday, 22 August 2025. Markets expect his words to provide clues about future monetary policy in the USA, which could cause significant fluctuations in the value of the US dollar.

Outlook for the euro: On Wednesday, 20 August, consumer inflation (CPI) data from various European countries will be released, which are key to the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy. At 08:00 in the UK, July CPI figures (year-on-year) will be released, with a forecast of 3.7%. These figures are crucial for the British pound, as they may influence market expectations regarding future interest rate decisions by the Bank of England. Then, at 11:00, data for the entire Eurozone will be released: the core CPI (year-on-year) is forecast at 2.3% and the CPI (year-on-year) at 2.0%. These indicators may have a significant impact on the euro exchange rate, as they provide information on price dynamics in the region.

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