Market Summary by AFORTI: Stability of interest rates despite inflation volatility, forecasts for the zloty and foreign exchange markets and the outlook for the economy
The last week in our market has seen a fairly small amount of macroeconomic news. The main event was, of course, the Monetary Policy Council meeting and the interest rate decision. After the latest readings of inflation (CPI) , which fell to 2.0 per cent in March and stood at 2.4 per cent in April, consumers expected that in the wake of sharply falling inflation, interest rates would also be cut. However, we had a clear message from economists that these were the lowest readings and the next few months would bring us a further upward bounce - due to the reintroduction of 5% VAT on food and the removal of the electricity shield at the end of June 2024. Given the current situation and the scenarios of rising inflation again - the MPC did not decide to change interest rates. What is more - the prevailing opinion on financial markets at the moment is that rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2024.
Next week will be full of more economic information, when, among other things, there will be information on the current GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and the next inflation reading (Wednesday/Thursday). After this series of data, it will be easier to assess how the zloty will be priced in the coming weeks.
Looking at global markets - Monday was a bank holiday in the UK, so we had no activity in the markets from the City of London. On Thursday, however, we learned of the BoE (Bank of England) decision, which, like most central banks, kept it unchanged (5.25%). On the same day, there was also information from the other side of the ocean - that is, data on pre-declared jobless claims. The information, which is perhaps not very popular for us, shows the number of new unemployed. The data we were confronted with surprised the market "in the negative" - which means weaker macroeconomic data and a negative impact on the US dollar. The expected increase of 212,000 turned out to be understated by almost 20,000 - meaning that 231,000 new unemployed were registered. Such surprises immediately affect the dollar's quotations against foreign currencies - of which, of course, we are most interested in the relationship to the euro. We will mention the details of this later in the report.
As in Poland - and in the world's major markets - we had no significant data. The aforementioned UK presented GDP data on Friday. These, although still low, surprised positively, showing the first swallows of economic recovery: GDP m/m 0.4% vs 0.1% forecast, GDP k/k 0.6% vs 0.4% expected and GDP y/y 0.2% vs 0.0% forecast.
So how did the zloty behave against the major currencies? The zloty's relation to the euro clearly showed a pull towards a return to the EUR/PLN 4.2500-4.3000 corridor and the breaking of the strong support at 4.3000. Of course, the MPC's decision was in line with expectations, so we did not have any major surprise on the zloty. By the end of the week, the zloty was gaining - practically 2 cents below the aforementioned support, but as you can see on the chart - EUR/PLN 4.3000 was coming back like a magnet. In our view, both importers and exporters recognised the area around 4.3000 as a natural level of equilibrium favourable to both sides of the business.
EUR/PLN - perspective on the last 10 days
Looking at the US currency, the zloty also gradually gained. Here we had an additional 'bonus' resulting from fluctuations on EUR/USD - related to labour market data - for volatility for USD/PLN was higher than EUR/USD. In general, here the strong level is the psychological USD/PLN 4.0000 and, as we can see, despite breaking through and going about 3 cents below - it is the EUR/PLN 4.0000 level that attracts again. It seems that, as for EUR/PLN, we have some level of acceptable equilibrium here as well. So can we again expect a level closer to USD/PLN 3.9000? Looking at the current situation - corrections occurring just after the strengthening of the zloty indicate the mentioned consensus and consolidation around USD/PLN 4.0000
USD/PLN in the perspective of the last 10 days
EUR/USD quotes have moved out of the EUR/USD 1.0680 levels and into a sideways trend of 1.0730-1.0780. In previous reports, we have suggested just such a possibility and, as you can see, EUR/USD is even narrowing this corridor to EUR/USD 1.0760-1.0780. It seems that in the current situation and with US data suggesting a deterioration in the macroeconomic situation and the date for the start of a series of interest rate cuts moving away - these levels represent some market compromise.
EUR/USD in the perspective of the last 10 days
How have oil prices behaved in the current situation? The situation in the Middle East, which has ceased to have a negative impact on the market situation, and oil is visibly cheapening. The situation is jumping in that the direction towards USD 80/barrel is starting to be the scenario just being realised.
BRENT crude oil - last 3 months USD/barrel
Gold - we are dealing with a sideways trend of 2.300-2.4000 USD/ounce, where we are dealing with strong support at 2.300 and strong resistance at 2.400. All indications are that a very strong impulse is needed to break one way or the other - and this, as we can see, is lacking at this stage.
Gold - last 3 months USD/union
Finally, a brief look at our stock market. The WIG broke out to the 87,500 level and after a slight correction found itself 1,000 points lower. It looks like we are therefore about to attempt an approach to 90,000, which will be a very strong signal that the Polish equity market has a lot of potential.
Szymon Jańczak
Director of Treasury Department
Aforti BIZ