Market Summary by AFORTI: Saudi Arabia meeting, low inflation, interest rates, possible target of Trump's geopolitics
Economic indicators
Poland
1. CPI (m/m): 0.3%; forecast 1.0%; previously 0.0%;
2. CPI (y/y): 4.9%; forecast 5.3%; previously 4.9%;
3. Interest rate decision (March): value 5.75%; forecast 5.75%; previously 5.75%;
4. Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (m/m) (March): value 48.68; forecast 50.02;
Eurozone
1. Sentix investor sentiment (March): value -2.9; forecast -9.1; previously -12.7;
2. industrial production (y/y) (January): 0.0%; forecast -0.9%; previous -1.5%;
3. industrial production (m/m) (January): 0.8%; forecast 0.5%; previously -0.4%;
4. total reserve assets (Feb): $1,477.77B; previously $1,457.53B;
Germany
1. industrial production (m/m) (January): 2.0%; forecast 1.6%; previous -1.5%;
2. Trade balance (January): $16.0B; forecast $21.0B; prior $20.7B;
3. 2-year government bond auction (Schatz): value 2.220%; previously 2.140%;
4. 10-year government bond auction (Bund): value 2.920%; previously 2.520%;
5. CPI (y/y) (Feb): value 2.3%; forecast 2.3%; previously 2.3%;
6. CPI (m/m) (Feb): value 0.4%; forecast 0.4%; previously -0.2%;
France
1. 3-month government bond auction (BTF): value 2.395%; previously 2.396%;
2. 6-month government bond auction (BTF): value 2.363%; previously 2.339%;
3. France CPI (y/y) (Feb): value 0.8%; forecast 0.8%; previously 1.7%;
4. France CPI (m/m) (Feb): value 0.0%; forecast 0.2%; previously 0.1%;
5. France HICP (m/m) (Feb): volume 0.1%; forecast 0.0%; previously -0.2%;
United Kingdom
1. BRC retail sales index (y/y) (Feb): value 0.9%; forecast 1.9%; previously 2.5%;
2. GDP (m/m) (January): -0.1%; forecast 0.1%; previous 0.4%;
3. Industrial production (m/m) (January): -0.9%; forecast -0.1%; previous 0.5%;
4. Factory goods production (m/m) (January): -1.1%; forecast 0.0%; previous 0.7%;
5. q/q GDP (January): 0.2%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.1%;
6. NIESR tool tracking monthly GDP (Feb): 0.4%; previous 0.2%;
USA
1. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (January): 7.740M; forecast 7.650M; prior 7.508M;
2. Core CPI (m/m) (Feb): value 0.2%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.4%;
3. CPI (y/y) (Feb): value 2.8%; forecast 2.9%; previously 3.0%;
4. CPI (m/m) (Feb): value 0.2%; forecast 0.3%; previously 0.5%;
5. Crude oil inventories: value 1.448M; forecast 2.100M; previously 3.614M;
6. unemployment claims: 1.870K; forecast 1.900K; prior 1.897K;
7. core PPI (m/m) (Feb): -0.1%; forecast 0.3%; prior 0.5%;
8. declared initial unemployed: 220K; forecast 226K; prior 222K;
9. PPI (m/m) (Feb): 0.0%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.6%;
10. University of Michigan inflation forecasts (March): 4.9%; previously 4.3%;
China
1. CPI (m/m) (Feb): -0.2%; forecast -0.1%; previously 0.7%;
2. CPI (y/y) (Feb): value -0.7%; forecast -0.4%; previously 0.5%;
3. PPI (y/y) (Feb): -2.2%; forecast -2.0%; previously -2.3%;
4. new loans (Feb): $1,010.0B; forecast $2,150.0B; previous $5,130.0B;
5. M2 money stock (y/y) (Feb): 7.0%; forecast 7.1%; previous 7.0%;
Foreign exchange market
The euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) this week, losing slightly at the end of the week. The euro price oscillated between 4.1673 and 4.2042.
The dollar (USD) held its ground against the zloty (PLN), after a large fluctuation. The price oscillated between 3.8219 and 3.8852.
Oil and gold market
The price of BRENT crude oil rose by 0.31% and oscillated in the range of USD 68.65 - 71.22/barrel.
The gold price rose by 2.53% to reach new record levels and oscillated in a range of USD2885.31 - 3016.11/ounce.
Stock market
This week saw further increases and new peaks on the WSE. The price of the WIG index rose by 3.67% and oscillated between 91 664 and 97 292.
Cryptocurrencies
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 3.13% this week, and oscillated in the range 301,663 - 344,015.
Important events of the past week
US-Ukraine administration meeting: On Tuesday, the US and Ukrainian administrations met in Saudi Arabia to discuss key issues regarding the ongoing conflict with Russia. The US proposed a 30-day ceasefire, which Ukraine accepted on the condition that Russia would also agree to it. Following the meeting, the US and Ukraine issued a joint statement on the immediate resumption of intelligence sharing and security assistance to Ukraine. In addition, the parties agreed to conclude a rare minerals agreement as soon as possible to strengthen the Ukrainian economy and the country's long-term security.
Inflation reading: The February 2025 inflation reading was 4.9%, below economists' expectations of maintaining January's 5.3%. The figures for January were also revised downwards to 4.9%. The fall in inflation was mainly the result of a change in the weights in the inflation basket of the Central Statistical Office (CSO). This change reduced the share of food prices and housing costs in the overall consumer price index (CPI).
Interest rate in Poland: The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) did not decide to change the level of interest rates at its meeting on 11-12 March. The decision was widely expected by the market. The President of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), Adam Glapiński, argued for keeping rates on hold with fears of a renewed rise in inflation in the fourth quarter of the year, following the possible expiry of energy price shields for households. His press conference was perceived by the market as indicating a sharp, hawkish stance on future monetary policy.
Possible target of Trump's geopolitics: More and more experts, such as Zoltan Psar and Scott Bent, are publicly discussing the theory behind Donald Trump's political moves. According to this hypothesis, referred to as the ‘Mar-a-Lago agreement’, Trump would be pursuing a hidden agenda to fundamentally change the global financial system. The aim is allegedly to weaken the position of the dollar and rebalance international trade through the use of tariff war tactics and other forms of economic leverage. The theory suggests that the ultimate intention is to make the US more competitive and strengthen its economy in a new, transformed set of global dependencies, perhaps using the military umbrella as a negotiating tool.
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