Market Summary by AFORTI: Presidential inauguration, WIG20 peaks, strengthening of the zloty, ZEW index

2025-08-11

The past week on the financial markets was full of events that affected the global economy. In Poland, Karol Nawrocki took office as President of the Republic of Poland, announcing a legislative offensive including, among other things, the restoration of investments in the Central Communication Port (CPK) and the abolition of the Belka tax. Among the key macroeconomic events, the Bank of England lowered its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%. The zloty strengthened by 0.44% against the euro and by 0.98% against the dollar. The WIG index rose by 4.95%, exceeding 110,000 points, and the WIG20 index reached its highest level in 17 years. The price of Brent crude oil fell by 4.75% and gold rose by 1.23%. Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin fell by 0.39%.

Economic indicators

Poland

1. Foreign exchange reserves (EUR) (Jul): value 223.52B; forecast none; previous 211.05B;

Eurozone

1. S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul): value 50.9; forecast 51.0; previous 52.0;

2. Services PMI (Jul): value 51.0; forecast 51.2; previous 50.5;

3. PPI (y/y) (Jun): value 0.6%; forecast 0.5%; previous 0.3%;

4. PPI (m/m) (Jun): value 0.8%; forecast 0.9%; previous -0.6%;

5. Retail sales (y/y) (Jun): value 3.1%; forecast 2.6%; previous 1.9%;

6. Retail sales (m/m) (Jun): value 0.3%; forecast 0.4%; previous -0.3%;

Germany

1. PMI index for services in Germany (Jul): value 50.6; forecast 50.1; previous 49.7;

2. Germany's trade balance (Jun): value 14.9B; forecast 17.8B; previous 18.6B;

3. German exports (m/m) (Jun): value 0.8%; forecast 0.5%; previous -1.4%;

4. German imports (m/m) (Jun): value 4.2%; forecast 1.0%; previous -3.9%;

5. Car registrations in Germany (y/y) (Jul): value 11.0%; forecast none; previous -13.8%;

6. Factory orders in Germany (m/m) (Jun): value -1.0%; forecast 1.2%; previous -0.8%;

France

1. PMI index for services in France (Jul): value 48.5; forecast 49.7; previous 49.6;

2. Industrial production in France (m/m) (Jun): value 3.8%; forecast 0.8%; previous -0.7%;

3. Unemployment rate in France (Q2): value 7.5%; forecast 7.5%; previous 7.5%;

United Kingdom

1. Halifax House Price Index (y/y) (Jul): actual 2.4%; forecast none; previous 2.7%;

2. Composite PMI (Jul): actual 51.5; forecast 51.0; previous 52.0;

3. Services PMI (Jul): actual 51.8; forecast 51.2; previous 52.8;

4. Interest rate decision (Aug): actual 4.00%; forecast 4.00%; previous 4.25%;

5. PMI index for the construction sector (Jul): value 44.3; forecast 48.9; previous 48.8;

6. Halifax property price index (m/m) (Jul): value 0.4%; forecast 0.1%; previous 0.1%;

USA

1. Initial jobless claims: value 226K; forecast 221K; previous 219K;

2. PMI index for services (Jul): value 55.7; forecast 55.2; previous 52.9;

3. ISM index for services (Jul): value 50.1; forecast 51.5; previous 50.8;

4. ISM index for services related to employment (Jul): value 46.4; forecast none; previous 47.2;

5. Trade balance (Jun): value -60.20B; forecast -62.60B; previous -71.70B;

6. Imports (Jun): value 337.50B; forecast none; previous 350.30B;

7. Atlanta Fed GDP Now model (Q3): value 2.5%; forecast 2.1%; previous 2.1%;

8. Jobless claims: value 1,974K; forecast 1,950K; previous 1,936K;

9. Non-farm productivity (q/q) (Q2): value 2.4%; forecast 1.9%; previous -1.8%;

10. Unit labour costs (q/q) (Q2): value 1.6%; forecast 1.6%; previous 6.9%;

China

1. CPI (m/m) (Jul): value 0.4%; forecast 0.3%; previous -0.1%;

2. PPI (y/y) (Jul): value -3.6%; forecast -3.4%; previous -3.6%;

3. Trade balance (USD) (Jul): value 98.24B; forecast 105.20B; previous 114.77B;

4. Import balance (y/y) (Jul): value 4.1%; forecast -1.0%; previous 1.1%;

5. CPI (y/y) (Jul): value 0.0%; forecast -0.1%; previous 0.1%;

6. Caixin Services PMI (Jul): value 52.6; forecast 50.4; previous 50.6;

Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) weakened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 0.44%. The euro price fluctuated between 4.2425 and 4.2853.

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Similarly, the dollar (USD) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.98%. The price of the dollar fluctuated between 3.6369 and 3.7087.

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Oil and gold market

The price of BRENT crude oil fell by 4.75%. The price fluctuated between 65.79 and 69.95 USD/barrel.

Gold, on the other hand, rose by 1.23%, reaching a new peak. The price of gold fluctuated between 3398.87 and 3512.45 USD/ounce.

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Stock Exchange

The WIG index rose by 4.95%, exceeding 110,000 points. The price of the WIG index fluctuated between 105,163 and 110,952.

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Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.39%. The price of Bitcoin fluctuated between PLN 418,670 and PLN 434,000.

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Important events of the past week

The president and changes: On Wednesday, Karol Nawrocki officially took office as President of Poland. He announced a legislative offensive, the key points of which are the restoration of investment in the Central Communication Port (CPK) and the abolition of the so-called Belka tax on capital gains up to PLN 140,000 per year. The president also opposes the introduction of the euro and raising the retirement age. In addition, he proposes zero PIT for families with at least two children.

Appreciation of the zloty: The zloty strengthened against major currencies, supported by several favourable factors. Speculation about a possible meeting between the presidents of Russia and the USA, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, may have suggested an easing of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In addition, the record-breaking August debt auction by the Ministry of Finance, where demand for bonds reached PLN 15.7 billion, also helped to strengthen the Polish currency.

Interest rate cut: The Bank of England cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%. At the same time, Christopher Waller, a proponent of looser monetary policy, is emerging as the leading candidate for Federal Reserve chair among Donald Trump's advisors. Waller already voted in July for a 25 basis point cut in rates.

WIG20 at its peak: This week, the WIG20 reached its highest level in 17 years. The index exceeded 3,000 points, driven by reports of a possible meeting between Putin and Trump and hopes for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Over the week, the blue chip index gained about 4%.

New GPT-5 model: GPT-5 is the latest large language model (LLM) from OpenAI, replacing previous versions, including GPT-4o. Its creators see it as ‘an important step towards creating AGI’ (Artificial General Intelligence). Sam Altman compares its capabilities to the level of an expert with a PhD in many fields. The biggest change is the elimination of the need for the user to select a model. GPT-5 automatically adjusts the response speed to the question asked, ensuring an optimal combination of speed and accuracy. In addition, the model is much less likely to ‘hallucinate’, providing more reliable information.

Events worth watching this week

Outlook for the zloty: In the coming week, key domestic macroeconomic indicators may affect the value of the Polish zloty. On Wednesday, GDP data (y/y) for the second quarter will be published, with a forecast of 3.3%. On Thursday, we will learn the CPI inflation rate (y/y) for July, forecast at 3.1%. Better-than-expected readings could contribute to the strengthening of the Polish currency, while weaker results could put pressure on its depreciation.

Outlook for the euro: In the coming week, the value of the euro may be influenced by important macroeconomic data from Germany and France. On Tuesday, we will learn about the ZEW economic sentiment in Germany for August, which is forecast at 39.7, suggesting optimism about the future of the economy. On Thursday, French CPI and HICP indices for July will be published, which are expected to show inflation at 1.0% and 0.9% respectively. In addition, on Thursday we will see preliminary data on GDP in the Eurozone for the second quarter, which is forecast to grow by 0.1% on a quarterly basis. On the other hand, weaker readings from the German labour market or lower inflation in France could weaken the euro.

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