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Market summary by AFORTI: Israel's truce with Iran, Nasdaq 100 record, interest rates in Poland

2025-06-30

Last week on the financial markets was marked by a sudden turn in the Israeli-Iranian conflict, which ended in a ceasefire following attacks by American bombers. The initial flight of capital towards gold and the dollar was short-lived, and the markets quickly reacted with a fall in oil and gold prices and a weakening of the dollar against the zloty, while at the same time recording growth on the stock exchanges. In Poland, the WIG index rose and the dollar weakened to its lowest level in five years. In the USA, the Nasdaq index reached a record high.


Economic indicators

Poland:

1. Wages in the corporate sector (y/y) (May): value 8.4%; forecast 8.8%; previously 9.3%;

2. Employment growth (y/y) (May): value -0.8%; forecast no data; previously -0.8%;

3. Industrial production (y/y) (May): value 3.9%; forecast 4.3%; previously 1.2%;

4. PPI (y/y) (May): value -1.5%; forecast -1.4%; previous -1.6%;

5. Retail sales (y/y) (May): value 4.3%; forecast 4.4%; previous 7.9%;

6. M3 money supply (y/y) (May): value 10.3%; forecast 10.2%; previous 10.4%;

7. Unemployment rate (May): actual 5.0%; forecast 5.0%; previous 5.2%;


Eurozone:

1. PMI index for industry (June) p: actual 49.4; forecast 49.6; previous 49.4;

2. S&P Global Composite PMI (June) P: value 50.2; forecast 50.5; previous 50.2;

3. PMI for services (June) P: value 50.0; forecast 50.0; previous 49.7;


Germany:

1. PMI index for industry in Germany (June) P: value 49.0; forecast 48.9; previously 48.3;

2. PMI index for services in Germany (June) P: value 49.4; forecast 47.8; previously 47.1;

3. Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany (June): actual 88.4; forecast 88.1; previous 87.5;

4. Business Expectations in Germany (June): actual 90.7; forecast 90.0; previous 89.0;

5. Current analysis of the situation in Germany (June): value 86.2; forecast 86.5; previously 86.1;

6. GfK consumer climate in Germany (July): value -19.1; forecast -20.3; previously -20.0;


France:

1. PMI index for industry in France (June) P: value 47.8; forecast 49.8; previously 49.8;

2. PMI index for services in France (June): value 48.7; forecast 49.2; previously 48.9;

3. S&P Global composite PMI index for France (June): value 48.5; forecast 49.3; previous 49.3;

4. Total number of unemployed in France (May): value 3,002.0K; forecast no data available; previous 3,013.0K;

5. CPI index in France (y/y) (June) P: value 0.9%; forecast 0.7%; previously 0.7%;

6. HICP index in France (y/y) (June) P: value 0.8%; forecast 0.7%; previously 0.6%;


United Kingdom:

1. Services PMI (June) P: value 51.3; forecast 51.2; previously 50.9;

2. Composite PMI (June) p: value 50.7; forecast 50.5; previously 50.3;


USA:

1. PMI index for services (June) p: value 53.1; forecast 52.9; previously 53.7;

2. Existing home sales (May): value 4.03M; forecast 3.96M; previously 4.00M;

3. PMI index for industry (June) P: value 52.0; forecast 51.1; previously 52.0;

4. Existing home sales (m/m) (May): value 0.8%; forecast -1.3%; previously -0.5%;

5. S&P Global Composite PMI (June) P: value 52.8; forecast 52.2; previous 53.0;

6. Current account (Q1): value -450.2B; forecast -448.0B; previous -312.0B;

7. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (June): value 93.0; forecast 99.4; previous 98.4;

8. Richmond Manufacturing Index (June): value -7; forecast -10; previous -9;

9. API weekly report on crude oil stocks: value -4.277M; forecast -0.600M; previous -10.133M;

10. Building permits (May): value 1.394M; forecast 1.393M; previous 1.422M;


China:

1. Industrial profit in China, YTD (May): value -1.1%; forecast no data; previously 1.4%;


Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) weakened against the Polish zloty (PLN). The euro price fluctuated between 4.2347 and 4.2786.

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Similarly, the dollar (USD) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by as much as 2.31%, reaching its lowest level in 5 years. The price of the dollar fluctuated between 3.6078 and 3.7348.

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Oil and gold market

The price of BRENT crude oil fell by as much as 14.04%, falling particularly sharply after the announcement of the suspension of hostilities in the Israeli-Iranian conflict. The price fluctuated between 66.10 and 78.55 USD/barrel. 

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Gold, on the other hand, fell by 2.90%. The price of gold fluctuated between USD 3,268.52 and USD 3,408.52 per ounce. 

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Stock Exchange

The WIG index recorded another increase, this time by 3.31%. The value of the WIG index fluctuated between 98,683 and 103,836. 

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Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 1.82%. The price of Bitcoin fluctuated between PLN 350,200 and PLN 392,350.

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Important events from the past week

Israel's truce with Iran: Last week brought a sudden turn of events in the Middle East, triggered by American B-2 bomber attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. This event took place just two days after Donald Trump's announcement of possible action on the Iranian-Israeli front. Two days later, Donald Trump announced a ceasefire. Despite initial accusations by Israel that Iran had violated the agreement, the fragile truce ultimately became a reality.

The markets initially reacted with capital flight towards gold and the dollar, but this was a very short-lived reaction. Investors quickly stopped worrying about the increase in tension, which caused the stock markets to rise and gold, the dollar and oil to fall in price.

The United States is hoping for a comprehensive peace agreement with Iran. The USA's special representative for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, pointed to positive signals from Tehran on this issue. In exchange for abandoning its uranium enrichment programme, Washington is considering offering Iran sanctions relief, unfreezing $6 billion in frozen assets and investing $20-30 billion in a peaceful nuclear energy programme.

Second Pole in space: Sławosz Uznański-Wiśniewski became the second Pole in history to fly into space and the first to reach the International Space Station (ISS) as part of the Ax-4 mission. From aboard the Dragon capsule, shortly after reaching orbit, he emphasised that this mission is a huge step towards Poland's technological future, based on science, knowledge and vision. During his stay on the ISS, as part of the IGNIS mission, the Polish astronaut will conduct 13 experiments designed by Polish companies and carry out 30 educational and popular science demonstrations.

Nasdaq record: Nasdaq is an American stock exchange known for listing many technology and innovative companies. The Nasdaq 100 index brings together the 100 largest non-financial companies on this exchange, covering industries such as technology, biotechnology, retail and telecommunications. Recently, this index reached a record level of 22,306.79 points. This result highlights the strong position of technology companies on the market.


Events worth watching this week

Interest rates in Poland: The decision on interest rates in Poland (scheduled for 2 July 2025) is a key event for the Polish zloty. If interest rates are kept at their current level, this could further strengthen the PLN, making it more attractive to investors seeking higher returns. On the other hand, a cut in interest rates would significantly weaken the currency, as it would reduce the attractiveness of investing in PLN-denominated assets. Equally important will be Thursday's NBP conference describing the economic situation in Poland, as NBP President Adam Glapiński will discuss the Monetary Policy Council's further plans regarding monetary policy. 

PMI indicators: On Tuesday, 1 July 2025, currency markets will be mainly influenced by PMI indicators for industry and data on inflation and unemployment. For the euro, the key factors will be PMI indicators from Germany and the Eurozone, inflation forecasts and changes in unemployment in Germany, as well as a speech by ECB President Lagarde. In the case of the zloty, the domestic PMI index for industry will be important, as well as the indirect impact of data from Germany and the Eurozone due to strong economic ties. Better readings may strengthen currencies, while weaker ones may weaken them, signalling an economic slowdown or pressure on central banks.

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