Market Summary by AFORTI: Interest rates in Poland and England, planned layoffs, and breakthrough in the US government shutdown

2025-11-10

The reduction of the NBP main interest rate to 4.25% was the key event of the week, while the Bank of England maintained rates at 4.00%. In currency markets, the zloty strengthened against both the euro and the dollar, despite a record US government "shutdown" and signs of weakening in the American labor market. In the coming week, investors will focus on Polish GDP and CPI inflation data, as well as key inflation indicators from the eurozone and the USA.

Economic Indicators

Poland

1. Manufacturing PMI (October): 48.80; forecast 49.50; previous 48.00

2. Interest Rate Decision (November): 4.25%; forecast 4.25%; previous 4.50%

3. Foreign Exchange Reserves (EUR) (October): 228.02B; previous 223.26B

Eurozone

1. S&P Global Composite PMI (October): 52.5; forecast 52.2; previous 51.2

2. Services PMI (October): 53.0; forecast 52.6; previous 51.3

3. PPI (m/m) (September): -0.1%; forecast 0.0%; previous -0.4%

4. PPI (y/y) (September): -0.2%; forecast -0.2%; previous -0.6%

5. Retail Sales (y/y) (September): 1.0%; forecast 1.0%; previous 1.6%

Germany

1. German Factory Orders (m/m) (September): 1.1%; forecast 0.9%; previous -0.4%

2. German Industrial Production (m/m) (September): 1.3%; forecast 3.0%; previous -3.7%

3. German Trade Balance (September): 15.3B; forecast 16.7B; previous 16.9B

France

1. French Manufacturing PMI (October): 48.8; forecast 48.3; previous 48.8

United Kingdom

1. Construction PMI (October): 44.1; forecast 46.7; previous 46.2

2. Interest Rate Decision (November): 4.00%; forecast 4.00%; previous 4.00%

3. Halifax House Price Index (m/m) (October): 0.6%; forecast 0.1%; previous -0.3%

4. Halifax House Price Index (y/y) (October): 1.9%; forecast 1.5%; previous 1.3%

United States

1. Manufacturing PMI (October): 52.5; forecast 52.2; previous 52.2

2. ISM Services (October): 52.4; forecast 50.7; previous 50.0

3. Services PMI (October): 54.8; forecast 55.2; previous 54.2

4. ISM Services Prices Index (October): 70.0; forecast 68.0; previous 69.4

5. Crude Oil Inventories: 5.202M; forecast -2.500M; previous -6.858M

6. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 6.500M; forecast -2.400M; previous -4.000M

7. Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (November) P: 3.6%; forecast 3.8%; previous 3.9%

8. University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (November) P: 4.7%; forecast 4.6%; previous 4.6%

9. Baker Hughes Rig Count: 414; forecast 413; previous 414

10. Baker Hughes Total US Rig Count: 548; previous 546

China

1. Caixin Services PMI (October): 52.6; forecast 52.5; previous 52.9

2. Trade Balance (USD) (October): 90.07B; forecast 96.90B; previous 90.45B

3. CPI (y/y) (October): 0.2%; forecast 0.0%; previous -0.3%

4. PPI (y/y) (October): -2.1%; forecast -2.3%; previous -2.3%

5. Export Value (October): -0.80M; previous 8.40M

6. Exports (y/y) (October): -1.1%; forecast 3.0%; previous 8.3%

Currency Market:

This week, the euro (EUR) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.29%. The euro price oscillated in the range of 4.2373 – 4.2615.

Similarly, the dollar (USD) weakened against the zloty (PLN) by 0.51%, despite the interest rate cut. The dollar price oscillated in the range of 3.6602 – 3.7129.

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Oil and Gold Market

The price of BRENT crude fell by 1.53%. The price oscillated in the range of 62.91 – 65.29 USD/barrel.

Meanwhile, gold fell by 0.12%. The gold price oscillated in the range of 3938.72 – 4,039.37 USD/ounce.

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Stock Exchange

The WIG index fell by 0.45%. The WIG index price oscillated in the range of 110,604 – 113,357.

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Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 8.00%. The Bitcoin price oscillated in the range of 365,491 – 407,479 zlotys.

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Important Events from Last Week

MPC Decision and NBP Governor's Conference: Last week, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) decided to reduce the NBP main interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. This was the fifth cut in 2025, after which the reference rate reached its lowest level since spring 2022. Following the MPC meeting, NBP Governor Adam Glapiński announced that inflation throughout the projection horizon remains at a level consistent with the NBP's target. The Governor also indicated that if prices stabilize, further rate cuts are possible, and the reference rate could fall within the range of 3.5–4.0%.

Breakthrough in the US "Shutdown": The US federal government shutdown reached a record length of 41 days, breaking the previous historical record. This situation caused real problems, including suspension of payments for over 2 million employees, as well as flight delays and difficulties in the SNAP food bank program. Despite the ongoing impasse, a breakthrough came late Sunday evening, November 9, 2025. Thanks to a rare session and a crucial vote, the Senate voted 60 to 40 to proceed with a funding measure, made possible by a coalition of Republicans and eight Democrats, paving the way to end the shutdown.

Interest Rates in England: Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to maintain the main interest rate at an unchanged level of 4.00%. This decision, announced on Thursday, was the result of a split vote in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Five members voted to maintain rates, while four voted for a reduction. In the context of this decision, it was noted that consumer inflation expectations in the United Kingdom stood at 3.2% in October.

Planned Job Reductions in the USA: On Thursday, the Challenger Report was published, revealing data on planned layoffs in the USA in October. The report indicates a significant increase in announced job cuts to over 150 thousand, representing a 175.3% year-over-year increase. Such a significant rise in announced layoffs, creating "cracks in the American labor market," contrasted with other data (such as the ADP report). These weaker data reinforce investors' expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed at the December meeting.

Events Worth Watching This Week

Outlook for the Zloty: The zloty will focus on macroeconomic releases at the end of the week: GDP (y/y) for Q3 (Thursday, November 13) and the CPI indicator (y/y) for October (Friday, November 14). CPI inflation (forecast 2.8%) is close to the NBP's target, which after the recent rate cut is crucial for assessing the room for further policy easing. On Friday (November 14), the ECB Economic Bulletin will also be published, which may affect sentiment on the zloty.

Outlook for the Euro: The euro's condition will be determined by readings from Germany, including ZEW indices (Tuesday, November 11), reflecting economic sentiment in the eurozone's largest economy. Wednesday will bring important inflation data: the CPI indicator in Germany (y/y) for October (Wednesday, November 12), for which the forecast is 2.3%. The week for the eurozone will end with the publication of a preliminary GDP estimate (y/y) for Q3 (Friday, November 14), with a growth forecast of 1.3%.

Outlook for the Dollar: The key moment for the dollar is Thursday's publication of CPI (y/y) and core CPI (y/y) indicators for October (Thursday, November 13), which are decisive for the Fed's future path. Investors will also analyze unemployment benefit claims (Thursday, November 13) and crude oil inventories (Wednesday, November 12). A further risk factor is the record US government "shutdown," lasting 40 days, which continues to generate uncertainty and worsen consumer sentiment in November.

Outlook for the Pound: The pound will react to data from the British labor market, including average earnings (excluding bonuses) for September (Tuesday, November 11) and the unemployment rate (Sep) (Tuesday, November 11). The greatest weight will be placed on data concerning economic growth: GDP (q/q) and GDP (y/y) for Q3 (Thursday, November 13), for which the y/y growth forecast is 0.1%. Investors will also monitor real estate market data, as house prices in October grew slower than expected, which is important information following the Bank of England's decision.

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