Market Summary by AFORTI: Increased movements in currency markets, interest rate maintenance, Donald Trump's plan for Gaza
Economic indicators
Country | Indicator | Value | Forecast | Previous |
Poland | PMI index for industry (Jan) | 48,8 | 48,7 | 48,2 |
Interest Rates Decision (Feb) | 5,75% | 5,75% | 5,75% | |
Eurozone | CPI (y/y) (Jan) | 2,50% | 2,40% | 2,40% |
Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 46,6 | 46,1 | 45,1 | |
S&P Global composite PMI (Jan) | 50,2 | 50,2 | 49,6 | |
Services PMI (Jan) | 51,3 | 51,4 | 51,6 | |
Germany | PMI for industry (Jan) | 45 | 44,1 | 42,5 |
Factory orders (m/m) (Dec) | 6,90% | 1,90% | -5,40% | |
German Industrial Production (m/m) (Dec) | -2,40% | -0,70% | 1,30% | |
Germany trade balance (Dec) | 20,7B | 17,0B | 19,2B | |
France | Services PMI (Jan) | 48,2 | 48,9 | 49,3 |
United Kingdom | Composite PMI (Jan) | 50,6 | 50,9 | 50,4 |
Services PMI (Jan) | 50,8 | 51,2 | 51,1 | |
PMI for the construction sector (Jan) | 48,1 | 53,5 | 53,3 | |
Interest rate decision (Feb) | 4,50% | 4,50% | 4,75% | |
Halifax house price index (m/m) (Jan) | 0,70% | 0,40% | -0,20% | |
Halifax house price index (y/y) (Jan) | 3,00% | 3,40% | ||
USA | Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 51,2 | 50,1 | 49,4 |
ISM manufacturing index (Jan) | 50,9 | 49,3 | 49,2 | |
Atlanta Fed GDP-Today Model (Q1) P | 3,90% | 2,90% | 2,90% | |
ADP non-farm employment change (Jan) | 183K | 148K | 176K | |
Crude oil stocks | 8,664M | 2,400M | 3,463M | |
Declared initial jobless | 219K | 214K | 208K | |
Change in employment in non-farm sectors (Jan) | 143K | 169K | 307K | |
Unemployment rate (Jan) | 4,00% | 4,10% | 4,10% | |
University of Michigan inflation forecasts (Feb) p | 4,30% | 3,30% | 3,30% | |
China | Caixin Manufacturing PMI Index (Jan) | 50,1 | 50,6 | 50,5 |
Caixin Services PMI (Jan) | 51 | 52,3 | 52,2 | |
CPI (y/y) (Jan) | 0,50% | 0,40% | 0,10% |
Foreign exchange market
The Polish zloty (PLN) held its value against the euro (EUR) and oscillated between 4.1865 and 4.2375
Meanwhile, against the US dollar (USD), the Polish zloty (PLN) strengthened by 1.13% and oscillated in a range of 4.0258 - 4.1404
Oil and gold market
BRENT crude oil price fell by 2.29% in the past week and settled in a range of $74.13 - $77.21/barrel
The price of gold, on the other hand, rose by 1.93% and oscillated between US$2,805.24 and US$2,909.19 per ounce, reaching its highest value ever
Stock Exchange
The WIG index gained 2.04% this week and oscillated between 85,411 and 89,408, returning to levels seen the previous May
Cryptocurrencies
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) was down 3.88% this week, settling in the range of 390,000 - 424,000 zloty
Important events of the past week
The upcoming general election in Germany is seeing a shift in voter preferences. The three main parties, namely the CDU/CSU, SPD and AfD, lost support. The Linke party gained in popularity and the centrist parties saw an increase in support during the month.
The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) imposed a fine of PLN 750,000 on MM Prime TFI. The reason was irregularities in the supervision of the management of the funds Jeremie Seed Capital and EquiTech FIZ AN. MM Prime TFI failed to exercise day-to-day supervision over the external entity managing the Jeremie Seed Capital fund, conducted its activities unreliably and violated the interests of participants in EquiTech FIZ AN. The FSA stresses that an investment fund company has a duty to look after the interests of fund participants and supervise the management of the funds entrusted to it.
US President Donald Trump, announced his plan to resettle Palestinians from Gaza to Morocco, Puntland or Somaliland. The idea was met with general criticism. A Puntland official stressed that no one should be deported from their country against their will. Morocco is unlikely to agree to resettlement as it favours a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
TREASURY DEPARTMENT
AFORTI.BIZ