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Market Summary by AFORTI: Further peaks in gold and the WSE, Ukraine-USA talks in Riyadh, Rafal Brzoski's proposals for change

2025-03-24

Economic indicators

Poland

1. core CPI (y/y) (Feb): 3.6%; forecast 3.9%; previously 4.0%; 

2. Current account balance (EUR) (Jan): value -168M; forecast 440M; previous -803M; 

3. Corporate sector payrolls (y/y) (Feb): value 7.9%; forecast 8.7%; previously 9.2%; 

4. Employment growth (y/y) (Feb): value -0.9%; forecast -0.9%; previously -0.9%; 

5. Industrial production (y/y) (Feb): -2.0%; forecast -1.1%; previously -0.9%;

6. PPI (y/y) (Feb): value -1.3%; forecast -1.2%; previously -1.0%.


Eurozone

1. trade balance (January): $1.0B; forecast $14.0B; previous $15.4B; 

2. ZEW index (March): value 39.8; forecast 43.6; previously 24.2;    

3. Core CPI (y/y) (Feb): value 2.6%; forecast 2.6%; previously 2.7%;

4. CPI (y/y) (Feb): value 2.4%; forecast 2.3%; previously 2.5%;    

5. Eurozone wages (y/y) (Q4): value 4.10%; forecast 4.30%;  

6. HICP, excluding energy and food (y/y) (Feb): value 2.6%; forecast 2.6%; previously 2.7%. 


Germany

1. ZEW index of current economic conditions (March): value -87.6; forecast -80.5; previously -88.5;

2. ZEW Economic Sentiment (March): value 51.6; forecast 48.1; previously 26.0;

3. PPI (y/y) (Feb): value 0.7%; forecast 1.0%; previously 0.5%;    

4. PPI (m/m) (Feb): value -0.2%; forecast 0.2%; previously -0.1%. 


France

1 Business climate (March): value 96; forecast 97; previously 97;

2. French government 7-year bond auction (OAT): 3.10% value; previously 2.70%;   

3. French government 8-year bond auction (OAT): 3.23%; previously 2.77%;    

4. construction output (m/m) (January): 0.19% value; previously 0.39%. 


United Kingdom

1. Rightmove house price index (m/m): value 1.1%; previously 0.5%;    

2. Rightmove house price index (y/y) (March): value 1.0%; previously 1.4%;   

3. Average wages, including bonuses (January): value 5.8%; forecast 5.8%; previous 6.1%;    

4. Applications for unemployment benefits (Feb): value 44.2K; forecast 7.9K; previously 2.8K;    

5. 3m/3m change in employment (m/m) (Jan): 144K value; forecast 95K; previously 107K;    

6. unemployment rate (January): 4.4% value; forecast 4.4%; previously 4.4%. 


USA

1. Base retail sales (m/m) (Feb): value 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previously -0.6%;    

2. Retail sales (m/m) (Feb): value 0.2%; forecast 0.6%; previously -1.2%;    

3. Housing starts (Feb): value 1.501M; forecast 1.380M; previously 1.350M;

4. Business inventories (m/m) (Jan): 0.3% value; forecast 0.3%; prior -0.2%;    

5. Export price index (m/m) (Feb): value 0.1%; forecast -0.2%; previously 1.3%;    

6. Housing starts (m/m) (Feb): value 11.2%; previously -11.5%;    

7. Industrial production (y/y) (Feb): value 1.44%; forecast 1.92%;    

8. industrial production (m/m) (Feb): value 0.2%; forecast 0.7%; previously 0.3%;    

9. crude oil stocks: value 1.745M; forecast 0.800M; previous 1.448M; 

10. interest rate decision: value 4.50%; forecast 4.50%; previously 4.50%. 


China

1. property prices (y/y) (Feb): value -4.8%; previously -5.0%;    

2. Fixed asset investment (y/y) (Feb): value 4.1%; forecast 3.2%; previously 3.2%;   

3. Industrial production (y/y) (Feb): value 5.9%; forecast 5.3%; previously 6.2%;    

4. Retail sales (y/y) (Feb): value 4.0%; forecast 3.8%; previously 5.8%;    

5. unemployment rate (Feb): value 5.4%; previously 5.1%;    

6. PBoC lending base rate (March): value 3.60%; forecast 3.60%; previously 3.60%. 


Foreign exchange market

The euro (EUR) strengthened against the zloty (PLN) this week, slowly returning to levels around 4.20. The euro price oscillated between 4.1751 and 4.2060.

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The dollar (USD) strengthened against the zloty (PLN). The price oscillated between 3.8154 and 3.8851.

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Oil and gold market

The price of BRENT crude oil rose by 2.14% and oscillated in the range of USD 69.93 - 72.47/barrel. 

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The gold price rose by 1.16%, reaching new peaks and oscillating in a range of USD 2993.60 - 3028.20/ounce.

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Stock market

This week saw further increases and new peaks on the WSE. The price of the WIG index rose by 0.67% and oscillated between 91 664 and 97 292.

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Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.50% this week and oscillated in the range 315 444 - 336 401.

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Important events of the past week

Gold and WSE peaks: In the third week of March, the world witnessed a global record for the price of gold. Gold overcame the $3,000 per ounce mark and continued its rise to the vicinity of $3050, only to correct the move slightly later. By mid-Friday, gold contracts were still priced clearly above $3030 per ounce, with some forecasts predicting a further rise towards $3500. At the same time, the Polish stock market also recorded historic gains. The WIG index reached its record high, approaching 99 600 points on Wednesday. Despite the subsequent correction and declines on Thursday and the first half of Friday, the 100,000-point bar is still close, and the chances of beating it in the near term remain real.


Interest rate decisions: Central banks took mixed decisions on interest rates in the past week. The Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep interest rates at their current level of 4.25-4.50%. The Bank of England did the same, also leaving its interest rates unchanged at 4.50%. The Swiss National Bank, on the other hand, cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.25%.


USA-Ukraine talks continue: the next round of Ukrainian-US talks began in Riyadh on Sunday 23 March. The main purpose of the meeting is to discuss a truce in Russia's war against Ukraine, with security issues and the protection of energy facilities and critical infrastructure among the key topics. The Ukrainian delegation consists of energy experts and military representatives from the naval and air components. The authorities in Kyiv expect an agreement on a partial truce regarding energy facilities, civilian infrastructure and ensuring free navigation in the Black Sea.


Brzoska's proposals for change: Rafal Brzoska, Entrepreneurs' Plenipotentiary for Deregulation, has presented proposals for changes to the law to make life easier for entrepreneurs and citizens. His team plans to prepare 300 proposals in 100 days, most of which will require statutory changes. Among the proposals so far are simplification of regulations and reporting, shorter timeframes for VAT refunds and the introduction of a ‘silent settlement’ institution. Brzoska stresses that the initiative focuses on the needs of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises and citizens, avoiding the lobbying injections of big business.

TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ

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