Market summary by AFORTI: End of the US shutdown, weakening of the dollar, easing of ESG regulations, good data from the Polish economy

2025-11-17

Last week was marked by key international events, such as the end of the US government shutdown and the relaxation of EU ESG regulations, which coincided with positive data from the Polish economy. On the asset markets, the WIG index and the price of gold rose, while BRENT crude oil and Bitcoin prices fell. In the coming week, investors' attention will focus on the forecast core CPI inflation data for Poland, the eurozone and the UK, as well as the minutes of the FOMC meeting, which will provide key information for the outlook for the zloty, euro, dollar and pound exchange rates.

Economic indicators

Poland

1. GDP (y/y) (Q3): 3.7%; forecast 3.7%; previous 3.3%;

2. GDP (q/q) (Q3): 0.8%; no forecast; previous 0.8%;

3. Current account balance (EUR) (September): -725M; forecast -1,420M; previous -3,087M;

4. Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI index (m/m) (November): 48.03; forecast none; previous 50.44;

5. CPI (y/y) (October): 2.8%; forecast 2.8%; previous 2.9%;

6. CPI (m/m) (October): 0.1%; forecast 0.1%; previous 0.0%;

Eurozone

1. GDP (q/q) (Q3): 0.2%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.1%;

2. GDP (y/y) (Q3): 1.4%; forecast 1.3%; previous 1.5%;

3. Trade balance (September): 19.4B; forecast 1.9B; previously none;

4. Industrial production (m/m) (September): 0.2%; forecast 0.7%; previously -1.1%;

5. ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany (November): 38.5; forecast 41.0; previously 39.3%;

6. ZEW Index (November): 25.0; forecast 23.5; previous 22.7;

Germany

1. CPI (m/m) (October): 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.2%;

2. CPI (y/y) (October): 2.3%; forecast 2.3%; previous 2.4%;

3. HICP (m/m) (October): 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.2%;

4. HICP (y/y) (October): 2.3%; forecast 2.3%; previous 2.4%;

5. ZEW index of current economic conditions in Germany (November): -78.7; forecast -77.5; previous -80.0;

6. Current account balance in Germany, not adjusted for seasonal fluctuations (September): 18.6B; forecast none; previously 9.5B;

France

1. CPI in France (y/y) (October): 0.9%; forecast 1.0%; previous 1.2%;

2. HICP in France (y/y) (October): 0.8%; forecast 0.9%; previous 1.1%;

3. CPI in France (m/m) (October): 0.1%; forecast 0.1%; previously -1.0%;

4. HICP in France (m/m) (October): 0.1%; forecast 0.1%; previously -1.1%;

5. Unemployment rate in France (Q3): 7.7%; forecast 7.6%; previous 7.6%;

6. Auction of 6-month French government bonds (BTF): 2.044%; forecast none; previous 2.029%;

United Kingdom

1. GDP (q/q) (Q3): 0.1%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.3%;

2. GDP (m/m) (September): -0.1%; forecast 0.0%; previous 0.0%;

3. Trade balance (September): -18.88B; forecast -20.80B; previous -19.53B;

4. GDP q/q (September): 0.1%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.2%;

5. Jobless claims (October): 29.0K; forecast 17.6K; previous 0.4K;

6. Employment change $3m/3m$ (m/m) (September): -22K; forecast none; previous 91K;

USA

1. Crude oil inventories: 6.413M; forecast 1.000M; previous 5.202M;

2. Weekly API crude oil stocks: 1.300M; forecast 1.700M; previous 6.500M;

3. 10-year Treasury bill auction: 4.074%; previously 4.117%;

4. 30-year Treasury bond auction: 4.694%; previously 4.734%;

5. Gasoline inventories: -0.945M; forecast -1.900M; previous -4.729M;

6. Auction of 6-month Treasury bills: 3.690%; previously 3.700%;

7. Auction of 3-month Treasury bills: 3.780%; previously 3.815%;

8. Auction of 3-year Treasury bills: 3.579%; previously 3.576%;

9. Federal Reserve balance sheet: 6,580B; previously 6,573B;

10. Reserve balances at Federal Reserve banks: 2,883T; previously 2,852T;

China

1. Industrial production (y/y) (October): 4.9%; forecast 5.5%; previously 6.5%;

2. Retail sales (y/y) (October): 2.9%; forecast 2.7%; previously 3.0%;

3. Fixed asset investment (y/y) (October): -1.7%; forecast -0.9%; previously -0.5%;

4. Industrial production in China, cumulative (y/y) (October): 6.1%; previously 6.2%;

5. M2 money supply (y/y) (October): 8.2%; forecast 8.1%; previous 8.4%;

6. Total Social Financing in China (October): 810.0B; forecast 1,230.0B; previous 3,530.0B;

Currency market

This week, the euro (EUR) weakened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 0.22%. The euro price fluctuated between 4.2268 and 4.2403.

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Similarly, the US dollar (USD) weakened against the Polish zloty (PLN) by 0.58%. The price of the dollar fluctuated between 3.6354 and 3.6709.

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Oil and gold market

The price of Brent crude oil fell by 1.52%. The price fluctuated between 62.42 and 65.27 USD/barrel.

Gold, on the other hand, rose by 5.06%. The price of gold fluctuated between 4013.02 and 4223.00 USD/ounce.

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Stock exchange

The WIG index rose by 1.60%. The price of the WIG index fluctuated between 112,074 and 114,108.

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Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.37%. The price of Bitcoin fluctuated between PLN 369,570 and PLN 392,347.

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Important events of the past week

End of the US shutdown: The United States ended the longest partial government shutdown in history, which lasted 43 days. President Donald Trump signed a government funding bill on 12/13 November 2025, allowing federal institutions to resume operations immediately. The agreement guarantees that federal employees will resume their duties and receive back pay for the period of downtime. The most important consequence for financial markets is the resumption of regular publication of key data on the US economy, including reports on inflation, the labour market and consumption.

Weakening of the dollar: The US dollar weakened last week, partly due to lingering investor concerns about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December. Currently, the probability of another rate cut in December is priced in by the market at around 50%. Despite market speculation, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she would not support further rate cuts due to persistently high inflation and a lack of current economic data. In the currency context, the weakening of the dollar contributed to an increase in the EUR-USD exchange rate and a strengthening of the Polish zloty.

Easing of ESG regulations in the EU: On 13 November, the European Parliament voted to drastically ease regulations on environmental, social and corporate (ESG) reporting. The decision to withdraw some of the requirements came after intense pressure, mainly from American business associations and the fossil fuel industry. The original ESG regulations were intended to force even small family businesses to measure and report their CO2 emissions and team diversity. As a result of this relaxation, over 90% of companies originally covered by these regulations will be exempt from compliance.

Positive Data from the Polish Economy: The Polish economy saw an acceleration in growth in the third quarter of 2025, with real GDP growing by a solid 3.7% year-on-year. At the same time, Poland's current account deficit in September was €725 million, which was significantly lower than the market consensus, indicating stronger-than-expected exports. The final CPI inflation reading for October 2025 confirmed the preliminary estimate and stood at 2.8% year-on-year. The favourable domestic economic situation, confirmed by strong GDP and a good current account balance, supported the strengthening of the zloty, which thus recorded a very strong week.

Events to watch this week

Outlook for the zloty: The publication of the core consumer price index (CPI) on Monday, 17 November, for which the annual growth forecast is 2.9%, will have a potential impact on the Polish currency. This reading will provide investors with important information on internal price pressures in the economy, given the ongoing debate on a possible interest rate cut. Lower-than-expected core inflation may signal more room for monetary policy easing by the National Bank of Poland (NBP), which could potentially weaken the zloty.

Outlook for the euro: On Wednesday, 19 November, investors' attention will focus on the core CPI (y/y) for the eurozone for October, which is forecast at 2.2%. The PMI indices for industry and services in France and Germany, published on Friday, 21 November, will also be important for assessing the condition of the region. Markets will also be following speeches by numerous European Central Bank (ECB) representatives, including ECB President Christine Lagarde on Friday, 21 November. Positive economic activity readings (PMI) or higher-than-expected inflation could support the euro.

Outlook for the dollar: The key event will be the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes on Thursday, 20 November, which will provide detailed information on the outlook for interest rates set by the FED. In addition, on Monday, 17 November, we will see the manufacturing index for New York, and on Thursday, 20 November, the industrial index according to the Philadelphia FED. The PMI indices for industry and services, published on Friday, 21 November, will also serve as an important measure of the strength of the economy. Any hawkish signals in the FOMC minutes or stronger macroeconomic data could contribute to a strengthening of the dollar.

Outlook for the pound: The most important macroeconomic indicator for the pound in the coming week is the core CPI index for October, which will be published on Wednesday, 19 November, with an annual growth forecast of 3.4%. In addition, the pound will be influenced by the PMI indices for industry and services and core retail sales data published on Friday, 21 November. Higher-than-expected CPI inflation could support the pound, thereby strengthening the case for the Bank of England to maintain its restrictive monetary policy.

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