Aforti Exchange

Market Summary by AFORTI: ECB interest rate cut, increased defence spending in Europe, Donald Trump's new tariffs

2025-03-10

Economic indicators

Poland

1 PMI for industry: value of 50.60; forecast 49.00; previous 48.80;

2. CPI: value 2.4%; forecast 2.3%; previous 2.5%;

3. CPI (m/m): value 0.5%; forecast -0.3%;

4. Core CPI (y/y): value 2.6%; forecast 2.5%; previous 2.7%;

5. core CPI (m/m): value 0.6%; forecast -0.9%;

6. Consumer price index (CPI), not seasonally adjusted: value 127.32; forecast 126.72;

7. HICP, excluding energy and food (y/y): value 2.6%; forecast 2.7%;

8. HICP, excluding energy and food (m/m): value 0.5%; forecast -0.7%;

9. foreign exchange reserves (EUR): MLD 220.46 value; forecast MLD 217.11;


Euro area

1 CPI: value 2.4%; forecast 2.3%; previous 2.5%;

2. CPI (m/m): value 0.5%; forecast -0.3%;

3. core CPI (y/y): value 2.6%; forecast 2.5%; previous 2.7%;

4. unemployment rate: value 6.2%; forecast 6.3%; previous 6.2%;

5. PPI (y/y): value 1.8%; forecast 1.4%; previous 0.1%;

6. GDP (y/y): value 1.2%; forecast 0.9%; previous 0.9%;

7. interest rate decision: value 2.65%; forecast 2.65%; previous 2.90%;


Germany

1 Manufacturing PMI: value 46.5; forecast 46.1; previous 45.0;

2. factory orders: value -7.0%; forecast -2.4%; previous 5.9%;


France

1. PMI for industry: value 45.8; forecast 45.5; previous 45.0;

2. PMI for services: value 45.3; forecast 44.5; previous 48.2;

3. industrial production (m/m): value -0.6%; forecast 0.5%; previous -0.5%;


United Kingdom

1. manufacturing PMI: value 46.9; forecast 46.4; previous 48.3;

2. services PMI: value 51.0; forecast 51.1; previous 50.8;

3. construction PMI: value 44.6; forecast 49.5; previous 48.1;


USA

1. manufacturing PMI: value 52.7; forecast 51.6; previous 51.2; 2;

2. ISM manufacturing index: value 50.3; forecast 50.6; previous 50.9;

3. ADP nonfarm employment change: value 77K; forecast 141K; previous 186K;

4. services PMI: value 51.0; forecast 49.7; previous 52.9;

5. ISM index for services: value 53.5; forecast 52.5; previous 52.8;

6. crude oil inventories: value 3.614 M; forecast 0.600 M; previous -2.332 M;

7. change in non-farm employment: value 151K; forecast 159K; previous 125K;

8. unemployment rate: value 4.1%; forecast 4.0%; previous 4.0%;

9. Average hourly earnings (y/y): value 4.0%; forecast 4.1%; previous 3.9%;

10. average hourly earnings (m/m): value 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.4%;


China

1. Caixin manufacturing PMI: value 50.8; forecast 50.4; previous 50.1;

2. Caixin services PMI: value 51.4; forecast 50.8; previous 51.0;

3. exports (y/y): value 2.3%; forecast 5.0%; previous 10.7%;

4. Import balance (y/y): value -8.4%; forecast 1.0%; previous 1.0%;


Foreign exchange market

After a number of rapid changes in the value of the euro (EUR) against the zloty (PLN), the zloty strengthened last week. The euro price oscillated between 4.1442 and 4.2138. 

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The dollar (USD) weakened strongly against the zloty (PLN), by 4.72% - more than 15 cents, and the price oscillated in the range of 3.8285 - 4.0325. 

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Oil and gold market

The price of BRENT crude oil rose by 3.67% and oscillated in the range of USD 68.38 - 73.61/barrel.  

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The gold price rose by 1.83% and settled in a range of US$2,870.04 - US$2,940.29/ounce. 

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Stock market

This week saw further increases on the WSE. The price of the WIG index rose by 1.76% and oscillated between 89,280 and 93,732. 

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Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell another 3.60% this week, following the disappointing announcement of digital asset reserves in the US, and settled in the range of 328 757 - 385 500. 

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Important events of the past week

Increased defence spending in Europe: In the face of Donald Trump's actions weakening the transatlantic alliance and halting aid to Ukraine, leaders of the 27 EU member states have given the green light to a plan to rearm Europe called ReArm. The plan includes the suspension of EU budget rules, the creation of a new €150 billion loan facility for joint European defence projects and the lifting of restrictions on lending to defence companies by the European Investment Bank. In total, the ReArm Europe plan envisages the mobilisation of nearly €800 billion over the next four years.

ECB interest rate cut: The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to cut interest rates for the sixth time since June. The interest rate currently stands at 2.65%. In a communiqué, the bank indicated that monetary policy is becoming ‘noticeably less restrictive’. President Christine Lagarde indicated that inflation will reach the 2% target with a slight delay, stressing that the ECB is moving to a ‘more evolutionary approach’ and is not committing to any specific path for the cost of money.

Confusion over Donald Trump's tariffs: On Tuesday 4 March, tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China went into effect. In response, Canada and China introduced retaliatory tariffs. However, a day later, Donald Trump decided to suspend tariffs on autos and other automotive products from Canada and Mexico for a month. The US president also announced a further tightening of trade policy and a review of tariffs, which could lead to the extension of tariffs to further groups of goods.

Establishment of a strategic bitcoin reserve in the US: US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order establishing a ‘strategic bitcoin reserve’ and a reserve of other digital assets. This reserve is to be fed with assets confiscated in criminal and civil proceedings. Such a solution disappointed the cryptocurrency market, which had hoped for an active buyback of bitcoin by the federal government, causing bitcoin's price to fall.

TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ


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