Market Summary by AFORTI: Decline in the value of the PLN and rise in the price of gold
Macroeconomic situation
Poland:
1. Wages in the corporate sector: value 10.3%; forecast 11.1%; previously 11.1%;
2. Industrial production: value -0.3%; forecast 0.2%; previously -1.5%;
3. Producer Price Index (PPI): value -6.3%; forecast -5.7%; previously -5.5%;
4. Retail sales: value -2.2%; previously 3.2%;
5. Unemployment: value 5%; forecast 5%; previously 5%;
Eurozone:
1. Consumer Confidence (consumer): value -12.5; forecast -12.5; previously 12.9;
2. HCOB Composite PMI (overall): value 49.7; forecast 49.7; previously 49.6;
3. HCOB Manufacturing PMI (manufacturing): value 45.9; forecast 45.1; previously 45;
4. HCOB Services PMI (services): 51.2; forecast 51.6; previously 51.4;
Germany:
1. HCOB Composite PMI (overall): value 48.4; previously 47.5;
2. HCOB Manufacturing PMI (manufacturing): value 42.6; forecast 40.5; previously 40.6;
3. HCOB Services PMI (services): 51.4; forecast 50.5; previously 50.6;
UK:
1. S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI (total): value 51.7; previous 52.6;
2. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (manufacturing): value 50.3; forecast 51.4; previous 51.5;
3. S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI (services): 51.8; forecast 52.2; previous 52.4;
USA:
1. S&P Global Composite PMI (overall): value 54.3; previously 54;
2. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (manufacturing): value 47.8; forecast 47.5; previously 47.3;
3. S&P Global Services PMI (services): 55.3; forecast 55; previously 55.2;
Foreign exchange market
The Polish zloty (PLN) weakened against the euro (EUR) last week by 0.92% (to 4.3444) and oscillated between 4.3040 and 4.3537.
By contrast, against the US dollar (USD), the Polish zloty weakened by 1.58% (to 4.0238) and oscillated in a range of 3.9603-40387.
Oil and gold market
The BRENT crude oil price rose by 3.8% (to 75.89) and settled in a range of 72.8-76.5.
The gold price was characterised by high volatility (US$2,725.2-2,772.05/ounce) and rose 0.89% on the week (to US$2,760.80/ounce).
Stock market
The WIG fell by 2.29% between 21 and 25 October (to 80,756) and oscillated between 80,265 and 83,012.
Summary
The global market is dominated by two phenomena: the increase in political risk and the introduction of a number of stimulants. Through the war in Ukraine, the conflicts in the Middle East, or the fiscal stimulant in China, political risk has been increased. On the other hand, through interest rate cuts worldwide, the monetary stimulant was activated. Additionally, the fiscal stimulant was planned after the US elections. Other stimulants such as : the cryptocurrency market or Elon Musk's space projects have been in the spotlight.
As this year's Nobel Prize in Economics reports: the wealth of nations depends on the quality of governance. May the current rulers be effective in creating peace processes.
TREASURY DEPARTMENT
AFORTI.BIZ