Market Summary by AFORTI: Weakening of the zloty, further correction on the WSE, unsuccessful presidential meeting at the White House, tariffs on Mexico and Canada
Economic indicators
Poland
1. Retail sales (y/y) (Sty): value 6.1%; forecast 1.5%; previous 2.7%
2. Money supply M3 (y/y) (Sty): value 9.4%; forecast 9.2%; previous 9.3%
3. Car registrations (y/y) (Sty): value 3.40%; forecast 32.20%; previous 13.30%
4. Car registrations (m/m) (Sty): value -20.50%; forecast -37.6%; previous 37.8%
5. Unemployment rate (Sty): value 5.4%; forecast 5.4%; previous 5.1%
6. GDP (y/y) (Q4): value 3.2%; forecast 3.2%; previous 2.7%
7. GDP (k/k) (Q4): value 1.3%; forecast 1.3%; previous -0.1%
Eurozone
1. CPI (y/y) (Sty): value 2.5%; forecast 2.5%; previous 2.4%
2. GDP (k/k) (Q4): value -0.2%; forecast -0.2%; previous 0.1%
3. Money supply M3 (y/y) (Sty): value 3.6%; forecast 3.8%; previous 3.5%
4. Total number of unemployed in France (Sty): value 3,162.0K; forecast 2,957.0K
5. Consumer spending in France (m/m) (Sty): value -0.5%; forecast -0.6%; previous 0.7%
6. French CPI (y/y) (Feb) P: value 0.8%; forecast 1.0%; previous 1.7%
Germany
1. GDP (k/k) (Q4): value -0.2%; forecast -0.2%; previous 0.1%
2. GDP (y/y) (Q4): value -0.2%; forecast -0.2%; previous -0.3%
3. Business expectations in Germany (Feb): value 85.4; forecast 85.2; previous 84.3
4. Current analysis of the situation in Germany (Lut): value 85.0; forecast 86.5; previous 86.0
5. Ifo business sentiment index in Germany (Feb): value 85.2; forecast 85.9; previous 85.2
France
1. French CPI (y/y) (Feb) P: value 0.8%; forecast 1.0%; previous 1.7%
2. French GDP (y/y) (Q4): value 0.6%; forecast 0.7%; previous 1.2%
3. French GDP (k/k) (Q4): value -0.1%; forecast -0.1%; previous 0.4%
United Kingdom
1. Car registrations (y/y) (Sty): value -2.5%; forecast -0.2%; previous -8.3%
2. Social poverty index (HPI) by Nationwide (y/y) (Feb): value 3.9%; forecast 3.4%; previous 4.1%
3. CBI Distributed Trade Survey (Lut): value -23; forecast -21; previous -24
USA
1. CFNAI Index (Sty): value -0.03; forecast 0.18
2. Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index (Feb): value -8.3; forecast 14.1
3. Auction of 3-month Treasury bills: value 4.195%; forecast 4.225%
4. Auction of 6-month Treasury bills: value 4.180%; forecast 4.220%
5. Auction of 2-year treasury tickets: value 4.169%; forecast 4.211%
6. Redbook index (y/y): value 6.2%; forecast 6.3%
7. House price index (y/y) (Gru): value 4.7%; forecast 4.5%
8. House price index (m/m) (Gru): value 0.4%; forecast 0.2%; previous 0.4%
9. Property price index (Gru): value 436.1; forecast 434.3
10. S&P/CS composite house price index, s.a. (m/m) (Gru): value 0.5%; forecast 0.4%
11. Declared initially unemployed: value 242K; forecast 222K; previous 220K
12. Conference Board consumer confidence index (Feb): value 98.3; forecast 102.7; previous 105.3
13. Oil stocks: value -2.332M; forecast 2.500M; previous 4.633M
China
1. China Composite PMI (Feb): value 51.1; forecast 50.1
2. Manufacturing PMI (Feb): value 50.2; forecast 50.0; previous 49.1
3. Services PMI (Feb): value 50.4; forecast 50.3; previous 50.2
Foreign exchange market
The Polish zloty (PLN) is beginning to weaken against the euro (EUR) and has oscillated between 4.1297 and 4.2003.
Similarly, against the dollar (USD), the Polish zloty (PLN) weakened by 1.62% and oscillated between 3.9289 and 4.0511.
Oil and gold market
The price of BRENT crude oil rose fell by 1.60% and settled in a range of $71.97 - $74.73/barrel.
The price of gold fell by 2.80% and settled in the range of $2,845.64 - $2,972.80/ounce.
Stock Exchange
There was a correction on the WSE this week. The price of the WIG index fell by 1.20% and oscillated between 91,015 and 93,300.
Cryptocurrencies
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell 9.82% this week, reacting strongly to a new announcement from the White House regarding tariffs on the EU, and oscillated between 315,004 and 388,000.
Important events of the past week
USA-Ukrainian presidents meet: The meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky was aimed at signing an agreement on the exploitation of Ukrainian mineral resources. However, the signing of the document did not take place, and the talks ended in an argument. Zelenski warned Trump about Vladimir Putin, which prompted a sharp reaction from Trump. Trump's administration is considering halting support for Ukraine, including deliveries of military equipment.
Tariffs on Mexican imports: President Donald Trump has announced that suspended tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will go into effect on March 4. In addition, the US will impose 10 percent tariffs on goods from China. The decision dashes hopes of easing trade tensions. Trump has again threatened the European Union with tariffs.
Retail sales in Poland: January retail sales in real terms rose 4.8 percent year-onyear. Analysts had not expected such a good result. Monika Kurtek of Bank Pocztowy notes that the scale of the monthly decline was smaller than forecast. The data indicates a change in consumer attitudes and the good condition of consumption in Poland.
WSE correction: The beginning of the week on the WSE was characterized by strong declines. On Monday, the WIG20 index dived 2.4 percent, and banks were discounted by more than 3 percent. Despite better-than-forecast retail sales data, retail companies also came under pressure. The Warsaw Stock Exchange was the weakest stock market in Europe, although declines also affected other trading floors.
Weakening of the zloty: The zloty, after reaching consecutive record highs against the euro (4.1297) and strengthening against the dollar in response to positive retail sales and GDP data, fell dramatically in value. This was in response to news of potential tariffs on the EU and the failed talks between the US and Ukrainian presidents in Washington. Within two, the price of the euro rose by 7 cents and the dollar by 12 cents. This may signal the end of the period of strengthening of the zloty, which has lasted since the beginning of this year.
TREASURY DEPARTMENT
AFORTI.BIZ