Aforti Exchange

Market Summary by AFORTI: Poland's GDP growth up to 3.2%, U.S. inflation down to 2.9%, Strengthening the Zloty

19 August 2024

Macroeconomic Situation

Europe

·         United Kingdom:

o    Published labor market data were mixed, affecting investor uncertainty about future Bank of England actions. Unemployment rate: value: 4.2%; previous: 4.4%; forecast: 4.5%.

o    CPI inflation fell below expectations, which may suggest that inflationary pressures in the country are beginning to ease. CPI y/y: value: 2.2%; forecast: 2.3%; previous: 2%.

o    GDP for the second quarter of 2024 and industrial production also in line with forecasts, with industrial production showing growth above expectations. GDP data for June: GDP q/q: actual 0.6%; forecast 0.7%; previously 0.8%.  

·         Poland: CPI inflation in line with expectations, and GDP growth came in higher than forecast, which may indicate stability in the economy in the face of global challenges.  

o    CPI in y/y terms: value: 4.2%; forecast: 4.2%; previous: 4,2%.

o    GDP y/y: value: 3.2%; forecast: 2.7%; previous: 2,0%.

·         Eurozone: GDP data was in line with expectations, which did not make much difference to the market, but highlighted the persistence of economic challenges in the region. Eurozone GDP (y/y): value: 0.6%; forecast: 0.6%; previous: 0,6%.

USA

  • Inflation: the US CPI was slightly below expectations, which could affect investor sentiment and monetary policy decisions. CPI for July (y/y): value: 2.9%; forecast: 3%; previous: 3%.

  • Retail sales data: significantly exceeded forecasts, suggesting strong support for consumption and may influence future Federal Reserve decisions. Retail sales data for July: actual 1.0% m/m; forecast 0.4% m/m; previous: -0.2% m/m;

Foreign Exchange Market

The zloty strengthened in the period from August 12 to 16. The EUR/PLN exchange rate oscillated between 4.31 and 4.27, and the USD/PLN exchange rate oscillated between 3.94 and 3.89.

 

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Oil and Gold Market

Brent crude oil prices from August 12 to 16 remained in a range of USD 79.72-80.97 per barrel, indicating a slight increase in the market. The unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories caused a surprise in the market, which affected the volatility of crude prices. Change in oil inventories: value: 1.36 million barrels; expected: -2 million barrels; previously: -3.7 million barrels. Gold prices rose slightly from USD 2,466 to USD 2,494 per ounce, although the market showed volatility during the week and recorded increases to nearly 2,520 per ounce.

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Stock Exchange

The WIG rose some 4,400 points from August 12 to 16, ending the session at 84,691 points with a weekly turnover of 4,655,518,789. It was a week of strong gains on the WSE although with relatively lower turnover than usual.

 

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Summary

The week of August 12-16, 2024, brought a number of important macroeconomic data from the world's major economies to the capital markets. Although inflation data in the US and the UK were below expectations, strong retail sales in the US supported the market there. In Europe, GDP data were in line with forecasts, and industrial production in the UK exceeded expectations, which may suggest stabilization in the region. The oil market reacted to an unexpected rise in US inventories, which resulted in increased volatility. A potentially important week for the USD is looming. Fed Chairman Powell may use a speech at the Jackson Hole symposium to announce a cycle of interest rate cuts. In addition, investors will receive the minutes of the FOMC and ECB meetings, the interest rate decision from the CBR and preliminary PMI data for August.

 

TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ

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