Market Summary by AFORTI: Key Macroeconomic Events and Decisions Influencing the Markets in the Third Week of June
Macroeconomic Situation
The third week of June was full of macroeconomic events that had a significant impact on equity and financial markets. Key releases included data on inflation, interest rates and economic indicators from the world's major economies and, in particular, the US, UK, Switzerland and Germany.
Bank of England decision and UK CPI inflation
The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25% at its meeting on 20 June. The decision was in line with expectations. The split of votes also came as no surprise, with 7 Committee members voting to maintain rates and 2 voting for a cut.
UK CPI inflation (for May) was 2% vs 2% forecast and 2.3% previously (0.3% m/m vs 0.4% forecast and 0.3% previously). Core CPI rose 3.5% y/y in May in line with 3.5% expectations, vs. 3.9% previously (0.5% m/m vs. 0.9% previously).
Macroeconomic data from the USA
In the US, preliminary PMI data for June were published:
- Industry: Current: 51.7; expected: 51.0; previous: 51,3.
- Services. Current: 55.1 Expected: 53.7 Previous: 54,8.
US industrial production, May rose 0.9% m/m vs. 0.3% forecast and 0% previously.
Manufacturing production in May also rose 0.9% vs. 0.3% estimate and -0.4% previously.
Currency market
The zloty showed relative stability between 17 June and 23 June. The EUR/PLN exchange rate oscillated in the range of 4.36-4.33 and the USD/PLN exchange rate in the range of 4.07-4.05. The stability of the zloty was due to market expectations and the lack of major turbulence on international markets. The holiday season is slowly beginning.
Crude oil and gold market
Brent crude oil prices from 17-23 June remained in the USD 82.53-85.16 per barrel range, indicating some stabilisation in the market after previous volatility. Gold prices continued to consolidate around the USD 2,330 per ounce level, awaiting further macroeconomic guidance and interest rate decisions.
Stock market
The WIG rose by around 2440 points between 17 and 23 June, ending the session at 86,416 points. Investors continue to monitor the macroeconomic situation and central bank decisions, which may influence further movements of the index.
Summary
The third week of June 2024 brought important macroeconomic releases and interest rate decisions that influenced financial market volatility. In the coming days, investors will continue to keep an eye on economic data and central bank decisions that may influence further developments in equity markets.
In the context of next week, it is worth bearing in mind the fact that on Friday the market ends not only the month, but also the quarter and the first half of the year, important settlement periods for institutional investors who may be interested in increasing valuations after a month of correction.
Treasury Department
Aforti.BIZ