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Market Summary by AFORTI: Inflation in Poland rises slightly, retail sales below expectations, unemployment rate maintains downward trend, stabilisation of the zloty and growth on the Stock Exchange

1 July 2024

Macroeconomic Situation

The last week of June brought further significant macroeconomic events that influenced global equity and financial markets. Data on inflation, interest rates and economic indicators from the world's largest economies took centre stage.


Slight increase in inflation in Poland

CPI inflation for June rises to 2.6% y/y. Expectations pointed to readings roughly in the region of 2.5-2.6%. Previously in May, inflation was 2.5% y/y. 

Monthly inflation rose by 0.1% m/m, with expectations of 0.1-0.2% m/m. Previously, it was an increase of 0.1%.


Retail sales in Poland

Retail sales for May. Current: 5.4% y/y. Expected: 5.7% y/y. Previous: 4.3% y/y

In m/m terms, the real data shows a 0.1% decline against an expected 0.4% m/m increase.


Unemployment rate in Poland

As expected, the unemployment rate for May was 5%. It thus continued the downward trend that had been in place since March this year. Previously, it had stood at 5.1%.


Macroeconomic data from the USA

In the US, inflation data were published:

- PCE (Q1): Current: 3.4% forecast 3.3%; previously 1.8%;

- Core PCE (Q1): Current: 3.7% forecast 3.60%; previously 2.00%;

- Private consumption: Current: 1.5% forecast 2.0%; previously 2.0%.


GDP data:

- GDP (Q1): Current: 1.4% QoQ forecast 1.3% QoQ; previously 3.4% QoQ;

- GDP Deflator (Q1): Current: 3.1% QoQ forecast 3.1% QoQ; previously 1.7% QoQ.


Foreign exchange market

The zloty showed stability in the period from 24 June to 30 June. The EUR/PLN exchange rate oscillated in the range of 4.31 and the USD/PLN exchange rate in the range of 4.03. The stability of the zloty was due to market expectations and the lack of major turbulence on international markets. 

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Oil and gold market

Brent crude oil prices on 24-30 June remained in the USD 84.24-85.20 per barrel range, indicating some stabilisation in the market after previous volatility. Gold prices continued to consolidate around the USD 2,331 - 2,338 per ounce level.

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Stock market

The WIG rose by around 2,160 points between 24 and 30 June, ending the session at 88,614 points. Investors continue to monitor the macroeconomic situation and central bank decisions, which may influence further movements of the index.

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Summary

The last week of June 2024 marked the end not only of the month, but also of the quarter and the first half of the year, important settlement periods for institutional investors who were interested in ending their settlement periods as favourably as possible.


TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ

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