Aforti Exchange

Market Summary by AFORTI: Increased movements in currency markets, interest rate maintenance, Donald Trump's plan for Gaza

10 February 2025

Economic indicators

Country

Indicator 

Value

 Forecast

Previous

Poland

PMI index for industry (Jan)

48,8

48,7

48,2

Interest Rates Decision (Feb)

5,75%

5,75%

5,75%

Eurozone 

CPI (y/y) (Jan) 

2,50%

2,40%

2,40%

Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 

46,6

46,1

45,1

S&P Global composite PMI (Jan)

50,2

50,2

49,6

Services PMI (Jan)

51,3

51,4

51,6

Germany

PMI for industry (Jan)

45

44,1

42,5

Factory orders (m/m) (Dec) 

6,90%

1,90%

-5,40%

German Industrial Production (m/m) (Dec)

-2,40%

-0,70%

1,30%

Germany trade balance (Dec)

20,7B

17,0B

19,2B

France

Services PMI (Jan)

48,2

48,9

49,3

United Kingdom

Composite PMI (Jan)

50,6

50,9

50,4

Services PMI (Jan)

50,8

51,2

51,1

PMI for the construction sector (Jan)

48,1

53,5

53,3

Interest rate decision (Feb)

4,50%

4,50%

4,75%

Halifax house price index (m/m) (Jan)

0,70%

0,40%

-0,20%

Halifax house price index (y/y) (Jan)

3,00%

3,40%

USA

Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

51,2

50,1

49,4

ISM manufacturing index (Jan)

50,9

49,3

49,2

Atlanta Fed GDP-Today Model (Q1) P

3,90%

2,90%

2,90%

ADP non-farm employment change (Jan)

183K

148K

176K

Crude oil stocks

8,664M

2,400M

3,463M

Declared initial jobless

219K

214K

208K

Change in employment in non-farm sectors (Jan)

143K

169K

307K

Unemployment rate (Jan) 

4,00%

4,10%

4,10%

University of Michigan inflation forecasts (Feb) p

4,30%

3,30%

3,30%

China

Caixin Manufacturing PMI Index (Jan)

50,1

50,6

50,5

Caixin Services PMI (Jan)

51

52,3

52,2

CPI (y/y) (Jan)

0,50%

0,40%

0,10%

Foreign exchange market
The Polish zloty (PLN) held its value against the euro (EUR) and oscillated between 4.1865 and 4.2375 

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Meanwhile, against the US dollar (USD), the Polish zloty (PLN) strengthened by 1.13% and oscillated in a range of 4.0258 - 4.1404

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Oil and gold market

BRENT crude oil price fell by 2.29% in the past week and settled in a range of $74.13 - $77.21/barrel

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The price of gold, on the other hand, rose by 1.93% and oscillated between US$2,805.24 and US$2,909.19 per ounce, reaching its highest value ever

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Stock Exchange

The WIG index gained 2.04% this week and oscillated between 85,411 and 89,408, returning to levels seen the previous May

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Cryptocurrencies

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) was down 3.88% this week, settling in the range of 390,000 - 424,000 zloty

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Important events of the past week

The upcoming general election in Germany is seeing a shift in voter preferences. The three main parties, namely the CDU/CSU, SPD and AfD, lost support. The Linke party gained in popularity and the centrist parties saw an increase in support during the month.

The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) imposed a fine of PLN 750,000 on MM Prime TFI. The reason was irregularities in the supervision of the management of the funds Jeremie Seed Capital and EquiTech FIZ AN. MM Prime TFI failed to exercise day-to-day supervision over the external entity managing the Jeremie Seed Capital fund, conducted its activities unreliably and violated the interests of participants in EquiTech FIZ AN. The FSA stresses that an investment fund company has a duty to look after the interests of fund participants and supervise the management of the funds entrusted to it.

US President Donald Trump, announced his plan to resettle Palestinians from Gaza to Morocco, Puntland or Somaliland. The idea was met with general criticism. A Puntland official stressed that no one should be deported from their country against their will. Morocco is unlikely to agree to resettlement as it favours a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

TREASURY DEPARTMENT

AFORTI.BIZ




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